Daily Overview: 7 September 2026

Oil is the story today. US strikes on Iranian tankers over the weekend pushed Brent to $US96.28, and Citi and ANZ have both raised forecasts. This feeds directly into inflation and rate expectations — the ASX opens higher after Fed governor Waller calmed rate-rise worries on Friday, but the 58% probability of a Fed rate hike priced in after the strong jobs report will only harden if crude keeps climbing.

German industrial production at 4pm AEST is the key data point for commodity demand — consensus expects a modest 0.3% bounce from 0.2%, but the trend is still weak and a miss would reinforce concerns about European manufacturing. Japanese GDP final readings this morning are expected to be revised down to 1.1% annualised from 1.8%, which won't help sentiment for base metals.

The RBA is in focus this week with speeches scheduled, and the ECB meets Thursday. US CPI later in the week will be the big test for rate expectations — if it comes in hot on the back of rising oil, the "higher for longer" narrative gets a lot harder to push back against.

Australia

International

Energy & Geopolitics

• US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers over the weekend after Navy warships were targeted with ballistic missiles, with Brent crude jumping to $US96.28 a barrel and Citi and ANZ both raising price forecasts.
• The Albanese government is quietly disbanding the Fuel Supply taskforce created less than six months ago to manage the global fuel crisis, despite oil prices climbing to $US95 a barrel this week.
• Woodside Energy's $US17.5 billion Louisiana LNG project is 30% complete with first LNG expected by 2029, with new CEO Liz Westcott positioning the company as a global LNG powerhouse.
• A fire has gutted Hydro Tasmania's Tungatinah Power Station, which supplies about 5% of the state's energy, with authorities yet to assess the damage.
• Queensland has abandoned its electric bus plan and will instead order 630 diesel buses, following other climate policy rollbacks including scrapping renewable targets.

Iron Ore & Mining Equipment

• Fortescue and China's XCMG are developing battery-powered mining equipment for the Pilbara, with XCMG set to supply up to half of Fortescue's future fleet of 240-tonne haul trucks between 2028 and 2030.
• The NSW government approved a modification to Idemitsu's Boggabri coal mine allowing expansion until 2040, extracting up to 30 million tonnes of additional coal and generating an estimated 68 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions.
• BlueScope identified 316 risks at the ageing Whyalla steelworks, with the blast furnace offline since April and potential buyers facing about $600 million in costs for a new electric arc furnace.

Gold, Base Metals & Lithium

• Albemarle has appointed BHP chief commercial officer Ragnar Udd as its new president and CEO, effective February 1, 2027, with the lithium producer holding interests in Wodgina, Greenbushes and Kemerton.
• Sibanye-Stillwater has approved the restart of the Mt Lyell copper-gold mine in Tasmania, a $490 million investment creating around 300 jobs with production expected by early 2029.
• Anax Metals will study using existing heap-leach infrastructure at Whim Creek to process lower-grade copper and zinc ore, with CSIRO column testing showing copper recoveries of 77-80% and zinc recoveries over 90%.
• Citigold has entered a binding joint venture with Native Mineral Resources to explore four mining leases near Charters Towers, while Gorilla Gold has expanded the high-grade footwall lode at its Sovereign deposit to over 1km of strike with new drilling returning 2.8m at 31g/t gold.

Macro & Policy

• US stocks fell after a stronger-than-expected August jobs report (162,000 payroll additions) boosted bets on a Fed rate hike, with markets pricing a 58% probability of a hike. President Trump intensified pressure on the Fed to lower rates, threatening to cut off trade with countries with which the US has a deficit.
• Housing affordability in Australia has hit a record low, with a median-income household able to afford only 12% of homes sold nationally, despite falling property prices.
• The collapse of developer Bathla with $3.4 billion in debts has raised concerns about the $200 billion private credit industry, with ASIC chair warning of 'first significant cracks'.
• Labor has introduced draft legislation targeting income splitting by discretionary trusts, proposing a 30% minimum tax with an election option to lock in fixed distributions.
• Macquarie CEO Shemara Wikramanayake warned that sovereign wealth funds are avoiding Australia due to lengthy approvals and regulatory delays.
• Volkswagen announced up to 50,000 additional job cuts to address competition from Chinese automakers and the costly transition to electric vehicles.