Daily Overview: 10 August 2026

The RBA's August decision lands today with rates expected to hold at 4.35%, but the tone will matter more than the outcome. Friday's shock US jobs print — 23,000 jobs shed against 83,000 expected — has markets betting the Fed stays on hold, giving Governor Bullock cover to sound hawkish without moving. With forward guidance abandoned, watch the statement language closely. The only scheduled data release is the UK BRC retail sales monitor at 09:01 (forecast 1.8% vs 1.7% prior), which won't move commodity markets — the RBA and the BHP strike are the day's real events.

The BHP Port Hedland walkout is the big operational story. More than 150 workers have turned a planned 24-hour stoppage into a weekend-long strike, threatening up to $240 million in lost iron ore revenue. With the Fair Work Commission meeting set for August 18, expect escalation headlines today. Copper remains the standout commodity — prices above $14,000/t on AI infrastructure demand are driving the Aussie dollar to seven-week highs, with forecasts of US77¢.

Bank earnings season kicks off this week with Westpac and CBA reporting. Analysts warn these could be peak results, with the housing downturn and rising mortgage stress starting to bite. Also watch for the Safeguard Mechanism review — the government is considering capping carbon offsets, which would hit coal and gas producers hardest.

International

Iron Ore & Steel

• BHP workers at Port Hedland, the world's largest bulk export port, walked off the job for a weekend-long strike, with more than 150 workers downing tools. The action could cost BHP over $240 million in lost revenue, with unions warning of further stoppages and the mining lobby cautioning it could deter international investment.
• Creditors voted to liquidate Liberty Bell Bay, Australia's last manganese smelter, leaving 200 workers jobless. A consortium involving White Oak and OM Holdings has expressed conditional interest in buying the site, contingent on the Tasmanian government waiving environmental liabilities and transferring the power deal.
• The AWU warned any new owner of the Whyalla steelworks must rebuild it as a fully integrated steelmaking facility, not just a processing plant for imported semi-finished steel. Two bidders — M Resources and Jindal Steel International — remain in the race, with rebuild costs estimated at $5-8 billion.

Critical Minerals & Copper

• The Pentagon will invest $560 million in Sunrise Energy Metals' Syerston scandium project in NSW, with a right of first offer on output. The project aims to become the world's first primary scandium source, breaking China's near-total supply dominance, and shares have surged 1200% in the past year.
• BHP and Rio Tinto executives will attend a US government roundtable with President Trump on critical minerals, with the Resolution Copper joint venture progressing. The US faces a severe mining talent gap — only 300 mining engineers graduate annually versus a need for 600.
• Copper prices pushed above $14,000 per metric ton on AI infrastructure demand, lifting the Australian dollar to a seven-week high. Analysts from Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and Bendigo Bank see further gains, with forecasts of US72-77¢ by year-end.
• WA signed a joint communiqué with Italy's export credit agency SACE to grow critical minerals trade, following similar deals with Japan. Austral Resources secured $15 million from Queensland's Critical Minerals Fund to expand its Rocklands copper facility from 3Mtpa to up to 6Mtpa.

Macro & Policy

• US employers unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs in July against expectations of 83,000 new jobs, with downward revisions of 103,000 to prior months. The weak print has markets betting the Fed will hold off on rate hikes, driving stocks higher and Treasury yields lower.
• The Albanese government launched a review of the Safeguard Mechanism, considering caps on carbon offsets for Australia's 200+ largest polluters. The opposition wants the policy scrapped entirely, while environmental groups back restrictions to force real decarbonisation.
• The Minerals Council called for skilled migration changes to be suspended, warning that prioritising onshore applicants will worsen workforce shortages in critical roles like engineers, geologists, and diesel fitters.
• Labor's 30% minimum tax on discretionary trusts will force nearly 500,000 small businesses to restructure, with state stamp duty costs potentially exceeding $500,000 per business. Business groups are urging states to waive fees, with CPA Australia estimating $2.5 billion in professional advice costs alone.
• Australian house prices are falling across Sydney, Melbourne, and smaller capitals, with NAB forecasting further declines. Auction clearance rates hit an 11-week high but from a low base, and the real estate industry is preparing for an agent 'shake-out'.

Energy & Industrials

• Woodside agreed to sell its 70% stake in the Calypso gas project in Trinidad to BP, exiting Trinidad and Tobago as part of CEO Liz Westcott's portfolio simplification. Analysts estimate the deal at US$100-150 million, with speculation of further transactions between the two companies.
• The Australian Energy Market Operator flagged a potential electricity reliability issue in Victoria for July 2028, coinciding with Yallourn's planned closure. New Premier Ben Carroll is reviewing energy policy, including offshore wind plans and the Suburban Rail Loop.
• Coles confirmed up to 1,000 back-office jobs will move to India under a multi-year Accenture partnership, following similar moves by Woolworths and Qantas. The deal is worth hundreds of millions of dollars and aims to cut costs to compete with Amazon.