Daily Overview: 11 November 2026

Australian housing finance data at 10:30am AEDT is the domestic event of the morning, and it will not make pleasant reading for anyone exposed to residential construction. Economists expect home loans to fall 6.0 per cent quarter-on-quarter — a sharp acceleration from the 1.9 per cent decline last period — with investment lending forecast to drop 14.0 per cent. That is what a 4.85 per cent cash rate does to a housing market, and the flow-through to dwelling approvals, and therefore to steel, cement and copper demand, is the number that matters. An RBA speech from Baker at 9:30am AEDT will be scanned for any hint that the bank is close to the end of its hiking cycle; ECB President Lagarde speaks at 7:45pm AEDT.

The bigger global signal came overnight, and it was hawkish. US headline CPI rose 0.4 per cent month-on-month against 0.3 per cent expected, with core at 0.3 per cent versus 0.2 per cent — the third consecutive upside surprise on the core measure. That pushes a near-term Fed cut further out of reach, supports real yields and is a headwind for gold even as the metal's debasement bid stays intact. Watch the US 10-year and the dollar this session; both matter more to commodity pricing right now than anything on the domestic calendar.

On commodities and corporates, oil is the live one: Brent is trading around US$93 a barrel, down from US$111.9 a week ago after Donald Trump talked down further strikes on Iran, and Australian pump prices should start falling in coming days. Evolution Mining's new shares issued for the Carnaby Resources acquisition begin trading today, with Carnaby delisted — the first tangible evidence of the Greater Duchess copper-gold consolidation into Ernest Henry. And expect the Nvidia scandal to keep bleeding into AI-adjacent names, from data centre developers to the ASX tech complex, with the board's independent investigation and an FBI probe now running in parallel.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• US inflation ran hot. Headline CPI rose 0.4 per cent month-on-month against 0.3 per cent consensus and core rose 0.3 per cent versus 0.2 per cent expected, with the index printing 337.51 against 337.02 forecast — a hawkish surprise that keeps upward pressure on real yields and the US dollar.
• China's trade surplus missed badly but the composition was bullish for bulk commodities. The surplus narrowed to US$105.28bn against a US$125.8bn consensus, yet exports beat at 35.2 per cent year-on-year and imports surged 41.6 per cent against a 32 per cent forecast — the strongest import read in some time and a positive signal for iron ore, copper and energy demand.
• NAB business confidence slipped to -15 from -14 previously and below the -14 forecast, another sign that conditions are deteriorating faster than the headline economy suggests. US weekly ADP employment change rose to 19.75K from 16.75K, while ZA unemployment rose to 33.7 per cent against a 32.5 per cent forecast.

Nvidia, AI & Data Centres

• Nvidia shares fell more than 5 per cent, or US$10.48 to US$176.16, erasing nearly US$200bn in market value after the board opened an independent investigation into reports CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a Chinese intelligence operation. Huang has admitted an affair with executive Alice Huang, whom US officials allege was recruited by China's Ministry of State Security; the FBI is now looking into it, Trump has publicly defended Huang, and a proposed class action accuses the company of concealing the ties. The stock is down 23 per cent in 30 days.
• Firmus co-CEO Tim Rosenfield told a Tasmanian parliamentary inquiry its data centres are chip-agnostic, despite Nvidia owning more than 7 per cent of the company, acting as sole supplier of AI computing chips and contracting for at least 10GW of chips between mid-2026 and mid-2031. Firmus has requested 444MW from Hydro Tasmania and is still fighting community appeals over its delayed 288MW Bell Bay facility.
• CDC Data Centres CEO Greg Boorer was photographed with Alice Huang at an Nvidia GTC reception in San Jose in March last year, adding Australia's largest sovereign data centre operator to the fallout. Boorer says the meeting was incidental.
• Qantas will cut 850 head office roles and outsource to Accenture under a seven-year deal to replace more than 1,000 legacy applications and accelerate AI adoption, with the first cuts mid next year. It is the clearest local example yet of the AI-and-offshoring combination that is reshaping white-collar employment.
• Morningstar put a US$1.7tn fair value on Anthropic ahead of its IPO, with a US$3tn bull case and a US$500bn bear case, expecting revenue to compound at 47 per cent annually over five years.

Resources, Energy & Climate

• Evolution Mining completed its $213m acquisition of Carnaby Resources, with scheme shares expected to trade on the ASX today and Carnaby delisted. The Greater Duchess copper-gold project could add about 10,000 tonnes of annual copper production at Ernest Henry, where Evolution is targeting FY27 output of 63,000–70,000 tonnes of copper.
• Austral Resources' takeover of Hammer Metals won 99.8 per cent shareholder support, with Federal Court approval scheduled for November 13. Austral is positioning itself as Australia's next mid-tier copper producer, with two Queensland processing facilities and a 468,414-tonne contained copper resource.
• Waratah Minerals delivered a maiden 3.1-million-ounce gold resource at its Spur project in NSW — 82.9Mt at 1.2g/t across just 2km of a 6km corridor — and is targeting 5Moz with 12 rigs and roughly 50,000m of drilling planned over six months. Executive chair Andrew Stewart moves to managing director.
• Gorilla Gold reported high-grade hits at Comet Vale in WA, including 9m at 7.9g/t gold from 242.9m at Sovereign and near-surface mineralisation at Happy Jack, with resource updates for Comet Vale, Mulwarrie and Vivien due before the end of 2026.
• Oil slid further, with Brent around US$93 a barrel versus US$111.9 a week ago, after Trump said new strikes on Iran were unlikely. RACQ expects capital city fuel prices to fall within days and regional relief within weeks, though Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned prices may not normalise until 2030.
• Woodside's $50bn Browse expansion is under renewed pressure after Ngarluma-Yindjibarndi traditional owners publicly opposed the proposal, calling the confidential 1998 North West Shelf land access agreement unfit for purpose. Woodside says it is working to modernise arrangements but rejects claims elders were pressured to sign.
• NSW introduced laws to keep the Mount Pleasant coal mine operating at 16.5Mt a year until 2032, overriding an October High Court ruling that the expansion was invalid for failing to consider Scope 3 emissions. The intervention has drawn sharp criticism from legal experts and climate groups.
• COP31 in Antalya conceded for the first time that 1.5C will be breached, pivoting to a voluntary pledge to electrify 35 per cent of global final energy by 2035, up from 23 per cent today. Separately, the CO₂CRC carbon capture research facility near Warrnambool has asked Canberra for $240m over 10 years to avoid decommissioning from 2027.
• Goldwind's 1,400MW Baldon wind farm was approved by the NSW Independent Planning Commission despite 72 of 80 submissions opposing it; the project will feature 175 turbines of up to 300 metres, among the tallest in the country.
• Queensland and the Northern Territory are leading trade missions to Indonesia targeting critical minerals, coal and METS investment, with Queensland's first mining-focused ministerial mission in 17 years.
• South32 refinery workers are striking as an $8bn Alcoa takeover looms.

Macro, Credit & Corporate

• ASIC released a 58-page report savaging Australia's $250bn private credit sector as opaque and conflicted, and confirmed a formal investigation into the collapsed Bathla Group, which owes $3.4bn. The regulator placed temporary stop orders on six fixed-income funds and took action against Angas Securities over disclosure of its Bathla exposure.
• Victorian Treasury warned the new Carroll government in August that soaring debt and interest repayments risked breaching the thresholds that trigger a credit rating downgrade, with interest repayments projected to cost taxpayers $12bn by mid-2030. S&P reaffirmed the state's AA rating in July but warned both major parties against election sweeteners ahead of the November 28 poll.
• GFG Alliance settled its $900m dispute with Greensill Capital's administrators, allowing Sanjeev Gupta to retain control of InfraBuild and its 4,500 employees, though the UK Serious Fraud Office investigation continues.
• David Jones was placed into voluntary administration after talks with landlords failed, leaving more than $250m in debts, $1bn in long-term leases and 6,000 jobs in limbo. FTI Consulting has called for buyer or recapitalisation interest.
• Domino's Pizza Enterprises is funding a franchisee bailout largely from its advertising fund, paying $15,600 per store across two payments, as roughly 400 of about 600 franchisee-run stores fall behind on tax obligations. The network's local same-store sales fell 4.7 per cent over the past financial year.
• Royal Bank of Canada agreed to buy $18bn Melbourne fund manager Yarra Capital in a deal understood to be worth $220m–$300m, the latest evidence that scale is deciding outcomes in asset management as super funds grow 8–10 per cent a year.
• The Future Fund named CIO Richard Brandweiner as its next chief executive, succeeding Raphael Arndt, who leaves after a six-year tenure that added $37.4bn to the fund. Brandweiner's first quarterly update showed the core fund grew just 0.07 per cent in the September quarter — its worst in three years.
• Chemist Warehouse co-founder Sam Gance sold $250m of Sigma Healthcare stock, the first of what is expected to be a series of block trades now that founder shares have exited escrow.
• The federal government will create an AI safety regulator with penalty powers and require AI companies to report security incidents, following OpenAI's breach of a Medicare database.