Daily Overview: 24 September 2026

All eyes on this morning's Australian labour force data at 11:30 AEST. Forecasts point to a 15.1K employment gain after August's 15.8K decline, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.5 per cent. The print lands days before the RBA's September 29 meeting, where a hike to 4.6 per cent is widely expected and a second move in November is now being talked about openly. Governor Michele Bullock has effectively abandoned the "narrow path" and said unemployment may need to drift toward 5 per cent to tame inflation — so a strong number cements the case for back-to-back tightening, while a soft one buys the RBA time but probably not a reprieve. Watch the AUD either way.

Crude is the other thing to watch, with Brent trading below US$99 after the EIA reported a 2.97 million-barrel build in US crude stocks against expectations of a 0.6 million-barrel draw. That bearish inventory surprise sits awkwardly with the geopolitical premium from the Iran conflict, and if it persists it should feed through to the diesel and freight costs that have been squeezing miners and contractors all year. On the demand side, US flash PMIs came in hot — composite 58.4 against 55.2 expected — which is a headwind for anything priced in US dollars.

On the corporate side, keep an eye on the gold developers: Meeka Metals is in the market for $30 million at a steep discount, Capricorn has just fired up its expanded Karlawinda plant, and Waratah's latest intercept will have peers re-examining the Lachlan Fold Belt. The Coalition's plan to gut Labor's climate architecture is still reverberating and will shape sentiment toward renewables-exposed miners and offshore wind plays. Fed speakers Williams, Barkin, Hammack and Paulson are all on the tape, US jobless claims are forecast at 201K, and Germany's Ifo at 18:00 AEST is expected to tick up to 89 from 88.8.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• US flash PMIs smashed forecasts: composite 58.4 versus 55.2 expected, manufacturing 57 versus 53.6, and services 58.7 versus 56 — a big upside surprise that supports the higher-for-longer rates narrative and a firmer US dollar, a headwind for dollar-priced commodities.
• EIA data showed a 2.969 million-barrel build in US crude stocks against expectations of a 0.6 million-barrel draw, though gasoline stocks fell 1.686 million barrels versus a forecast build — bearish crude, supportive refined products.
• Eurozone flash PMIs beat consensus across the board (composite 53.1 versus 51.7; services 53.0 versus 51.5), with German services rebounding sharply to 52.9 from 49.7, pointing to a broadening European recovery.
• India's flash PMIs remained firmly expansionary (composite 56.5, manufacturing 55.7, services 55.8), reinforcing the subcontinent's role as the marginal buyer of seaborne commodities.
• South African inflation eased to 4.4 per cent year-on-year against a 4.5 per cent forecast, while the US MBA 30-year mortgage rate jumped to 7.12 per cent from 6.97 per cent — another squeeze on US housing demand.

Gold & Exploration

• Capricorn Metals completed the Karlawinda expansion on schedule, hitting targeted steady-state throughput of 6.5 million tonnes per annum, with continuous processing underway and the WA operation expected to produce around 150,000 ounces of gold a year over a mine life beyond 10 years.
• Waratah Minerals delivered its best intercept to date at the Spur Gold Discovery in NSW — 46m at 7.27g/t gold from 541m, including 19m at 15.62g/t and a 1.3m single-sample assay of 206g/t — extending the Consols Zone 70m north and 150m east and linking mineralisation over roughly 400m of strike and 400m vertically.
• Adavale Resources lifted its Parkes gold inventory from 115,000oz to 383,300oz in under 17 months, with London–Victoria rising to 262,700oz and new inferred resources at Victoria South, Armstrongs and Calarie adding a further 120,600oz.
• Meeka Metals launched a $30 million equity raise at 10c a share, a 25.9 per cent discount, to fund a $10 million deferred payment on its Mt Holland tenements and develop New Turnberry — the stock has halved this year after rainfall and contractor issues forced a pivot from open-pit to underground mining at Murchison.

Copper, Critical Minerals & Technology

• BHP and Amazon launched an industry-first pilot to trade Environmental Attribute Certificates tied to copper produced at Escondida, allowing Amazon to retire certificates against emissions in its power, cooling and computing supply chains — a potential template for monetising low-carbon supply chains.
• BHP also renewed its steel decarbonisation partnership with China Baowu for five years, covering modified blast furnaces and emerging hydrogen-based direct reduced iron and electric smelting furnace technologies, alongside battery-electric haul truck trials at Jimblebar and a planned Caterpillar dynamic charging trial in FY2027.
• A new Critical Metals for Critical Industries CRC will be based at the University of Queensland, initially focused on vanadium before expanding to copper, rare earths, lithium and tellurium, backed by the Queensland government's $146 million critical minerals strategy.
• China continues to hold leverage in rare earths processing and magnet production ahead of Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington, while the US retains the upper hand in advanced semiconductors — both sides appear to want stability, with Xi seeking to extend a gentleman's agreement with Trump.
• Fenner Conveyors won the Sustainability in Bulk Handling category at the 2026 Bulk Handling Awards for its InfinitySeries recycled-content conveyor belts, developed with Tyrecycle and manufactured in Australia.

Macro, Energy & Policy

• The RBA is expected to raise the cash rate on September 29 and again in November, taking it to a 15-year high, after Bullock said unemployment may need to reach 4.5–5 per cent to ease labour market pressure — a stance that has drawn union fury and puts next week's decision squarely in focus for resource-sector cost of capital.
• The federal Coalition unveiled an eight-point plan to repeal almost all of Labor's climate and energy policy within 30 days of election, including the safeguard mechanism, the Climate Change Act, the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard and four offshore wind zones, while attempting to lift the nuclear ban and redirect the Capacity Investment Scheme toward coal, gas and nuclear.
• Treasurer Jim Chalmers flagged a multibillion-dollar blowout in debt servicing costs in the December mid-year update, with Australia's 10-year bond yield at 5.3 per cent versus about 4.8 per cent at the start of the year — RBC estimates the shift adds roughly $6 billion to the deficit over four years.
• An RBA staff note obtained by the ABC showed Australian data centre operators have raised a record $35 billion so far this year, up 46 per cent on all of 2025, with debt accounting for 85 per cent of new funding — the RBA is watching the AI investment boom as an inflation risk even as it finds little evidence of crowding out.
• The federal government authorised taxpayer funding to stabilise the abandoned Cliff Head oil platform off WA after owners Pilot Energy and Triangle Energy collapsed, with costs to be recovered via a levy on offshore petroleum producers; decommissioning across Australia is projected to cost $60 billion over 30–50 years.
• AIMEX 2027 returns to the Adelaide Showground from September 28–30, 2027, with the inaugural Asia-Pacific Mining Investment Summit running alongside it to connect explorers and emerging producers with institutional investors; Sandvik's Craig Johnston flagged automation, digitalisation, AI and electrification convergence as the defining themes for IMARC in Sydney from October 27–29.
• Corporate insolvencies hit a record in August, up 66 per cent, with 1,172 construction failures skewed by the Bathla Group collapse, while Mirvac warned new home supply will "fall off a cliff" within six months as higher costs and rising rates make projects unfeasible.