Daily Overview: 31 July 2026

All eyes are on China this morning with the NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs due at 11:30 AEST. The manufacturing print is forecast to slip to 50.2 from 50.3 — still expansionary but barely. A miss here would add to the bearish narrative on Chinese demand and hit iron ore and base metals. The non-manufacturing PMI is expected to edge up to 50.3, offering a slight offset. Also at 11:30, Australia’s PPI for the June quarter is out — forecast at 0.2% QoQ, down from 0.4% — and will feed into RBA thinking ahead of next week’s decision.

The Bank of Japan announces its rate decision at 1:00 PM. No change expected at 1%, but the accompanying Quarterly Outlook Report will be scrutinised for any hawkish lean. A more confident BoJ could strengthen the yen, pressuring AUD/JPY and commodity prices priced in yen terms. Later, the euro area’s flash inflation print at 7:00 PM is expected to tick up to 2.9% YoY from 2.8%, with core steady at 2.4% — enough to keep the ECB cautious but not enough to trigger a hawkish pivot.

In the US, the Employment Cost Index (10:30 PM) is forecast to ease to 0.8% QoQ from 0.9%, which would be welcome for the Fed’s inflation fight. But don’t get complacent — the Middle East conflict continues to push oil higher, and the Fed’s 9-3 hold with three hawkish dissents shows the pressure is building. The RBA’s Sarah Hunter warned yesterday that the data centre boom is straining construction capacity — that’s a direct input into mining capex timelines and labour availability.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• AU Building Permits MoM Prel surged 7.2% in June, massively beating the consensus of -1.0% — a strong signal for construction materials demand despite the housing downturn narrative.
• US GDP QoQ Advance came in at just 1.5%, well below the 2.1% consensus, raising recession fears and weighing on risk assets. The GDP Price Index jumped to 6.3% from 3.6%, underscoring persistent inflation.
• US Core PCE MoM printed 0.1%, below the 0.2% consensus, offering a small dovish surprise, but the YoY rate held at 3.7% — still well above target.
• German inflation YoY Prel rose to 2.8% from 2.3%, above the 2.7% consensus, driven by energy base effects and adding to ECB hawks’ arguments.
• Euro area GDP QoQ Flash beat at 0.4% versus 0.2% expected, while the Economic Sentiment index improved to 96.9 from 95.4, suggesting the bloc is stabilising.
• BoE held rates at 3.75% as expected, with the vote split 6-3 (unchanged vs hike), matching the prior meeting.

Macro & Policy

• The Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with three dissents favouring a quarter-point hike. New Chair Kevin Warsh faces mounting pressure to bring inflation to 2% as the Middle East war and AI-related spending keep prices elevated.
• Wall Street sold off sharply — the S&P 500 fell 1.5% and the 30-year Treasury yield hit a near two-decade high — after Warsh’s confusing inflation stance and Meta’s disappointing outlook on AI costs.
• RBA chief economist Sarah Hunter warned that the data centre boom is stretching the construction sector and drawing workers from other projects, while noting that trimmed mean inflation at 3.6% undershot the RBA’s 3.8% forecast.
• US President Trump threatened further strikes on Iran after a missile attack on US forces in Jordan and drone strikes on gas vessels in Egypt, sending oil prices surging. Saudi Arabia joined US airstrikes against Iranian-aligned militias in Iraq.

Energy & Commodities

• Glencore lifted its full-year coal guidance by 1 million tonnes at the midpoint after strong Australian energy coal output in the first half. Copper production rose 15% YoY to 397,000 tonnes with lower unit costs.
• Ampol trebled first-half EBIT to ~$1.35 billion as refining margins surged to $US30/bbl on the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The company plans major maintenance at Lytton but remains well-supplied.
• Gold Hydrogen extracted helium from South Australia’s Yorke Peninsula — the first Australian helium capture in three years — amid a global shortage triggered by Iranian strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan plant. Commercial supply is targeted within 18 months.
• Queensland launched a four-year, $146 million critical minerals plan to accelerate extraction, processing, and export, aiming to become a globally recognised supplier and expand downstream processing.
• Perdaman Global Services is conducting a $4 million pre-feasibility study, funded by the federal government, for Australia’s first new oil refinery in 60 years in Western Australia, citing sovereign fuel needs amid Middle East disruptions.

Metals & Mining

• Pantoro Gold reported June quarter production of 18,028 oz at an average price of A$6,293/oz, with A$223.4 million cash and no debt. The company is drilling Lake Cowan for the first time in 30 years and targeting 90,000–105,000 oz in FY2027.
• Aeris Resources reported a 37% rise in operating cash flow to $103.9 million and expects FY26 EBITDA of ~$285 million, up 78% YoY. The Constellation Project at Tritton is advancing, and the Peel Mining acquisition adds 540,000 tonnes of copper in resources.
• WA1 Resources reported high-grade niobium intersections at Luni (21.4m at 7.4% Nb₂O₅) and completed field data collection for the pre-feasibility study. An airstrip has been commissioned to improve site access.
• First Au completed the acquisition of the Riverina East Gold Project in WA for $2.2 million upfront, including the First Hit Gold Mine with historical production of 30,000 oz at 7.7 g/t.
• Yindjibarndi traditional owners voted unanimously to appeal the $150.3 million Federal Court compensation award from Fortescue, renewing the native title battle over four iron ore mines. The community originally sought up to $1.8 billion.