Daily Overview: 8 July 2026

The Day Ahead

Today’s focus is on the RBA’s next move. Deloitte Access Economics has forecast the weakest growth stretch since the early 1990s and expects the cash rate to rise to 4.6% in August — a view the market is still pricing at just 13% probability. That gap will narrow if today’s data or commentary from RBA officials reinforces the inflation stickiness story. Watch for any reaction in the Australian dollar and bond yields.

On the commodity front, rare earths and critical minerals remain the standout theme. Lynas’s $50 million deal to back a South Korean magnet factory is a direct challenge to China’s dominance, and the NSW royalty deferral scheme for Iluka and Sunrise unlocks $776 million in capital. The government’s expanded renewables tax forecast ($2.3 billion) will keep the foreign investment debate alive — expect pushback from clean energy groups and miners alike. Copper also has momentum: Cobre’s $100 million raising and Mount Chalmers’ state backing signal strong appetite for near-term production.

Geopolitical risk is back in focus after China’s unannounced ICBM test in the Pacific. Australia’s formal protest and bipartisan condemnation will keep defence and supply chain security front of mind for resources investors. The day ahead is about reconciling weak domestic growth with still-hot inflation and a policy environment that is simultaneously courting and deterring capital.

Currency Movements

Yesterday's Key Stories

Critical Minerals & Rare Earths

• Lynas Rare Earths is investing ~$50 million in South Korean manufacturer JS Link to support a permanent magnet factory in Malaysia, expanding the rare earth magnet supply chain outside China; the factory will produce NdFeB magnets and create up to 400 jobs, with Lynas exclusively supplying rare earth materials until 2038.
• Iluka Resources’ Balranald project and Sunrise Energy Metals’ Syerston project are the first to participate in the NSW critical minerals royalty deferral scheme, unlocking $776 million in capital investment; Balranald is being commissioned to produce zircon, rutile, ilmenite and rare earths, while Syerston is expected to start construction in H2 2026.
• Resources Minister Madeleine King committed a $28 billion investment package to rebuild domestic processing and refining capability for critical minerals and rare earths, highlighting specific projects including Victory Metals’ rare earths pilot facility, Alcoa’s gallium production at Wagerup, and the Arafura Nolans Rare Earths Project.
• Chinese-linked shareholders in Northern Minerals have defied Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ order to sell their stakes, raising national security concerns over the Browns Range rare earths project; shares fell 10% on the news.
• The Queensland Government committed $15 million through the Queensland Investment Corporation’s Critical Minerals Fund to accelerate the redevelopment of the historic Mount Chalmers copper-gold-zinc-silver mine near Rockhampton, and added another $100 million to the fund in the state budget.

Gold & Copper

• Bellevue Gold closed FY26 with production of 143,500 oz, in the upper half of its 130,000–150,000 oz guidance, and all-in sustaining costs within the $2,600–$2,900/oz range; underlying free cash flow was ~$110 million and cash and gold holdings rose to $206.4 million.
• Cobre Limited is raising up to $100 million via a placement at 30¢ per share to increase its stake in the Sierra Atacama copper cathode operation to 75% and expand plant capacity; Tribeca Investment Partners is expected to cornerstone the raising, taking nearly 20%.
• Barton Gold reported high-grade gold assays from drilling at its Tunkillia project in South Australia, including 13m at 5.01 g/t gold and 17m at 3.09 g/t, as part of an expanded 40,000m Phase 2 RC drilling program feeding into a pre-feasibility study targeting completion in Q1 2027.
• Antipa Minerals reported that pre-feasibility study test-work for its Minyari Dome gold-copper project in Western Australia confirms a conventional processing flowsheet with strong gold recoveries and potential for gold doré and copper concentrate; updated geotechnical parameters support steeper open pit slopes, potentially reducing or eliminating the need for underground mining.

Steel, Energy & Infrastructure

• Greensteel Australia, chaired by Ross Garnaut, proposes to build a zero-emissions electric steel mill on the former BHP steelworks site in Newcastle with a $500 million investment, aiming to produce up to 600,000 tonnes of finished steel annually by January 2028 and reduce reliance on imported steel.
• BlueScope’s CEO argued that Australia’s gas market is broken and supported the federal government’s proposed gas reservation scheme requiring exporters to supply 20% of export volumes domestically from 2027, citing Western Australia’s successful model.
• QPM Energy, a Queensland gas-to-power developer backed by General Motors and Macquarie Group, has entered voluntary administration, threatening the A$200 million construction of the Isaac gas power station; administrators and receivers have been appointed.
• Western Australian Premier Roger Cook signalled a potential shift on the federal government’s proposed national gas reservation scheme, indicating willingness to consider harmonisation; the existing WA policy requires 15% of gas over a project’s life, while the federal plan would mandate 20% annually.
• Large-scale wind projects critical to Australia’s renewable energy targets are struggling to reach construction due to rising costs, interest rates, and a lack of long-term buyers; developers are now seeking financial support from a NSW state scheme, which could complicate rescue efforts for the Tomago aluminium smelter.
• Morrison, a Kiwi-born infrastructure investor managing $30 billion in assets, entered a strategic partnership with Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, which will acquire a 15% stake; the deal includes a $500 million commitment from Sumitomo into Morrison’s global private market strategies.

Macro & Policy

• Deloitte Access Economics forecasts Australia’s weakest economic growth since the early 1990s recession, with GDP growth of 1.3% in FY2024-25 and 1.9% in 2027-28, driven by poor productivity and insufficient investment; stubborn inflation (trimmed mean at 3.6%) is expected to force the RBA to raise the cash rate to 4.6% in August.
• The OECD reports that Australians have experienced a 5.1% decline in real wages since March 2021, one of the sharpest drops in the developed world, with further declines forecast due to persistent high inflation.
• New Australian laws expanding a 30% capital gains tax on foreign investors in energy, mining, and infrastructure assets are forecast to raise $2.3 billion over five years, significantly more than the original $1 billion estimate; clean energy groups warn the tax will deter critical foreign investment in renewables.
• The Albanese government’s new AI Safety Institute will focus on frontier risks such as terrorists constructing bioweapons and chatbots influencing public opinion, as outlined by Assistant Technology Minister Andrew Charlton; the institute aims to address novel dangers before they become evident.
• The Maritime Union of Australia demands a 28-hour week with no loss of pay as a condition for DP World to introduce automation and AI, threatening hundreds of jobs; the dispute could lead to arbitration or changes in labour laws.
• China conducted a high-profile test of a new JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, drawing rebuke from Australia and the US; Australia formally protested to Beijing over the launch, with bipartisan condemnation from Labor and the Coalition.

Today's Useless Fact

Seattle’s Fremont Bridge rises up and down more than any drawbridge in the world.