Daily Overview: 30 October 2026

The local data calendar delivers its most consequential print of the week this morning, with September-quarter PPI due at 10:30 AEST. Forecasters expect producer prices to have risen 1.9 per cent over the quarter, up sharply from 1.3 per cent previously — a reading anywhere near that would harden the case for another RBA hike at next Tuesday's Melbourne Cup Day board meeting, where the cash rate is tipped to rise to 4.85 per cent, an 18-year high. Watch the AUD and rate-sensitive equities closely; yesterday's retail trading updates from Wesfarmers, JB Hi-Fi and Super Retail already showed demand buckling under the weight of higher borrowing costs.

Offshore, the Bank of Japan decides policy at 13:00 AEST and is universally expected to hold at 1.25 per cent, though the quarterly Outlook Report and Governor's press conference will be parsed for any shift in tone on yen weakness and imported inflation. Europe is the bigger story tonight: German GDP flash at 19:00 AEST is forecast to flatline at 0.0 per cent quarter-on-quarter, down from 0.3 per cent, while eurozone GDP at 20:00 AEST is expected to slow to just 0.1 per cent from 0.6 per cent. If those prints land as forecast, they will reinforce the stagflation narrative building across the bloc and weigh on industrial metals demand expectations. German CPI at 23:00 AEST is forecast to ease to 3.1 per cent year-on-year from 3.3 per cent.

In the US, the Employment Cost Index for the September quarter (22:30 AEST) is forecast at 0.7 per cent, down from 0.9 per cent — a cooler print would be a rare piece of good news for the Fed, which held rates at 3.75–4.00 per cent overnight in a 10–2 split and explicitly flagged that further hikes may be coming. Chicago PMI at 23:45 AEST is expected to ease to 56 from 58.8, and a Fed Musalem speech at 02:30 AEST rounds out the session. On the corporate front, keep an eye on the fallout from the collapsed Firmus float — ASIC's probe into the lead banks is now public, and the read-across to other neocloud and AI infrastructure names remains live.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• US GDP growth for the September quarter came in at 3.4 per cent annualised, well ahead of the 3.2 per cent consensus and up from 2.2 per cent previously — a strong beat that gives the Fed cover to keep tightening. Core PCE was in line at 0.3 per cent month-on-month, but headline PCE held at 3.6 per cent year-on-year, still well above target.
• US initial jobless claims fell to 194K against a 199K consensus, underscoring a labour market with no sign of cracking.
• Eurozone economic sentiment missed at 96.9 versus 97.5 expected, and the ECB held rates steady at 2.65 per cent (deposit facility 2.5 per cent) as expected.
• UK mortgage approvals slipped to 53.44K from 54.81K, and Japanese consumer confidence eased to 35.0 from 35.4.

Gold & Exploration

• Capricorn Metals outlined a "Range 500" strategy targeting 500,000oz of annual gold within five years, after completing the Karlawinda expansion on time and on budget. Karlawinda produced 31,218oz for the quarter at A$2,005/oz all-in sustaining cost, generating $113.1 million in operating cash flow and leaving $535 million in cash and gold.
• Brightstar Resources kicked off a 6,500m deep-drilling campaign at Two Mile Hill-Shillington, targeting extensions beneath the existing 1.45Moz resource within the 3.6Moz Sandstone project. Recent hits included 305m at 1.33g/t gold from 584m.
• Ballard Mining identified an 1,100m-deep geophysical target at the Baldock deposit, part of the Mt Ida project, following a 56 per cent resource increase to 1.84Moz. PC Gold unlocked 37 targets at Spring Hill in the NT, with 16 drill-ready and nine Tier 1 priorities.
• Wiluna Mining launched a 140,000m, two-year exploration campaign after repaying roughly $40 million to Byrnecut and emerging debt-free, while New Murchison Gold recorded a 1m sample grading 2,860g/t gold at Crown Prince. Forrestania Resources signed a binding ore purchase agreement with High-Tech Metals for up to 400,000t of gold-bearing feed ahead of the Edna May restart.
• EY's 2027 risk report, based on 400 mining executives, ranked operational complexity as the sector's biggest risk, with regulatory delays and reserve-grade variability leading the concerns. Cybersecurity entered the top 10, with 67 per cent of mining assets in EY's "vulnerability zone".

AI, Data Centres & Capital Markets

• Firmus Technologies' abandoned $44 billion ASX float is unravelling fast: ASIC confirmed it is investigating the conduct of Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Bank of America and Morgans Financial over whether they misrepresented demand to investors. The company has US$8.3 billion in AI chip commitments in doubt, US$550 million in pre-payments due by December, and bonus-share obligations if no qualifying float completes by November 30.
• Microsoft's Australian data centre entity swung to a $326 million profit from a $5.6 million loss, with revenue up 33 per cent to $3 billion as its local footprint nearly doubled to $18.1 billion. AirTrunk is in preliminary talks with APA Group about a data centre at a proposed gas-fired energy hub near Perth.
• JPMorgan Asset Management warned neoclouds such as Firmus, Nscale and CoreWeave must wean themselves off debt-funded expansion, questioning the model's viability if rates rise to 6–8 per cent. Alphabet shares fell as much as 11 per cent despite AI cloud revenue up 108 per cent, while Microsoft's Azure grew 48 per cent.
• The Albanese government will ban AI data centres near homes and recreational facilities and is exploring a copyright licensing regime that would force AI companies to disclose training content, with draft laws due before year-end.

Macro, Rates & Consumer

• The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75–4.00 per cent in a 10–2 vote, with Governors Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting in favour of a quarter-point hike. The FOMC upgraded its economic assessment to "strong" from "solid" and signalled further hikes may be coming, with traders pricing a December move.
• Wesfarmers, JB Hi-Fi and Super Retail Group all warned of deteriorating trading conditions as rate pain bites. Bunnings' sales growth moderated, JB Hi-Fi's Australian electronics like-for-like sales fell 1.4 per cent, and Super Retail's like-for-like growth swung to a 1.3 per cent decline. Wesfarmers shares fell 3 per cent.
• Australia's small-cap managers are in retreat: the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries fell 16 per cent in 2026 and at least 12 small-cap funds closed this year, with Hyperion's Small Growth strategy down 35.8 per cent and QVG Opportunities off 26.9 per cent.
• Cyprium Metals is seeking $25 million in equity and US$40 million in debt for its Nifty copper mine, while Gold Hydrogen is raising $6 million for its Ramsay natural hydrogen and helium project. Iris Capital will take control of the Cairns Reef Hotel Casino in a near $200 million deal.
• Treasurer Jim Chalmers faces pressure to deliver genuine spending cuts in December's mid-year budget update, with economists calling for deeper NDIS reform and an end to middle-class welfare such as home battery and EV subsidies.