Daily Overview: 24 June 2026

The Day Ahead

The primary focus for markets today is the fallout from Australia's latest inflation data. While headline inflation slowed, the rise in trimmed mean inflation to 3.6% is a significant red flag for the RBA. Expect a hawkish tone to dominate the narrative, with bond traders increasingly pricing in the possibility of further rate hikes in the second half of the year to anchor inflation expectations.

Keep a close eye on the ASX 200, particularly the banking sector. The combination of potential rate hikes and the government's aggressive move to curb negative gearing and CGT discounts is creating a volatile environment for residential property exposure. Additionally, the "chipwreck" in semiconductor stocks—led by SK Hynix and Samsung—could trigger further selling in tech-heavy portfolios as the AI-driven bull market faces its first real stress test.

Yesterday's Key Stories

Mining & Resources

Queensland & NSW Budgets: Both states are leaning heavily on mining; Queensland is allocating $146M to critical minerals and $3.2B to the CopperString project, while NSW forecasts royalties to climb to $3.4B.
Gold Exploration: Ballard Mining reported high-grade intersections at Mt Ida aiming for another million ounces, while Gorilla Gold announced new shallow gold at Lady Margaret and Barton Gold commenced a PFS for the Tunkillia project.
Project Updates: Larvotto Resources identified a conceptual target at Hillgrove (5.16g/t Au eq), and Ithaca Resources agreed to buy the bankrupt Vitrinite's assets, including the Vulcan coal mine, for over $200M.
Industry Innovation: BHP and Rio Tinto have formed the Tailings Management Consortium to advance dewatering technologies, while Flexco is debuting AI-powered belt rip prevention at the QME exhibition.
Energy & Smelters: Rio Tinto's Tomago smelter faces a potential 2028 shutdown unless a renewable energy funding deal is reached between the NSW and Federal governments.

Macro, Policy & Finance

Inflation & Rates: Australia's trimmed mean inflation rose to 3.6%, the highest since late 2024, fueling speculation that the RBA may implement further interest rate hikes.
Tax Reform: The Labor-Greens deal to overhaul negative gearing and CGT discounts, including a ban on SMSFs borrowing for residential property, has sparked warnings of a housing supply crunch.
Financial Regulation: APRA and the RBA warned banks and super funds to prepare for "grey zone" geopolitical warfare and AI-powered cyber threats.
Corporate Governance: KPMG Australia is facing a leadership crisis and potential regulatory overhaul following an audit leaks scandal involving competitor pitch documents.

Infrastructure & Technology

AI & Compute: GPU processing power is evolving into a financial asset class, with firms launching "compute futures" to hedge against price volatility.
Aerospace: Gilmour Space Technologies is preparing to launch a sub-orbital hypersonic rocket from North Queensland by August.
PNG Crisis: Port Moresby's water network is facing imminent failure due to insolvency and aging infrastructure, while the country has banned Australian poultry imports due to bird flu.
Energy Transition: The Queensland government's $18B Borumba pumped hydro project remains uncertain after being omitted from the budget's construction timeline.