Daily Overview: 28 July 2026

All eyes are on RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s speech at 1:05 pm AEST today. With inflation still sticky and the housing market wobbling, any hawkish tone will rattle rate-sensitive sectors and the AUD. Markets are pricing no move for months, but Bullock has been clear that the board is not ruling anything out — expect her to reinforce that message.

Overnight, the US releases June goods trade balance (forecast $-99B vs prior $-105.9B) and July consumer confidence (forecast 92 vs 91.2 prior). A narrower trade deficit would be a modest positive for USD, but confidence is the real bellwether — if it disappoints, risk appetite could sour quickly. The API crude inventory print (forecast -1.5M barrels) will also be watched after the Iran-US pause sent oil sharply lower yesterday.

The Albanese government’s $4 million feasibility study for a new WA oil refinery is a big signal that fuel security is now a front-burner political issue. Combined with the renewed carbon price push from economists and a renegade Liberal senator, energy policy is shaping up as a key theme for resources investors. Expect the carbon debate to intensify ahead of the safeguard mechanism review.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• US Durable Goods Orders rose just 0.3% in June (consensus 2.5%), a significant miss driven by a sharp drop in transportation orders. Ex-transport orders rose 0.6% (consensus 0.8%), still below expectations.
• US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index jumped to 1.3 in July (forecast -1), the first positive reading since early 2023, suggesting some stabilisation in Texas factory activity.
• German Ifo Business Climate edged up to 86.6 in July (consensus 86), a modest improvement but still signalling contraction in Europe’s largest economy.

Iron Ore & Steel

• Sundance Resources won an $880 million ICC arbitration award against Cameroon for wrongfully stripping the miner of its Mbalam iron ore project. Collection is uncertain, but the ruling highlights renewed interest in African iron ore alongside Rio Tinto’s Simandou and Fortescue’s Gabon projects.
• Fortescue chairman Andrew Forrest warned AI poses an existential threat and called for international regulation, while also urging fair Australia-China negotiations as the company relies heavily on Chinese iron ore sales.

Gold & Base Metals

• Evolution Mining will acquire Carnaby Resources for $213 million, adding the Greater Duchess copper project in Queensland. The deal will use spare capacity at Evolution’s Ernest Henry mill to boost copper output by ~10,000 tpa, capitalising on near-record copper prices.
• Newmont’s Tanami gold mine in the NT supplied the gold for the 2026 Lexus Melbourne Cup trophy — the first time a single Australian mine has provided all the gold for the trophy. Tanami targets 365,000 oz this year.
• Meeka Metals reported high-grade gold intercepts 200 metres below the Turnberry underground reserve at its Murchison project, with 52.3m at 3 g/t gold, suggesting strong depth potential for resource growth.
• Boab Metals completed 60% of phase nine drilling at the Sorby Hills silver-lead-zinc project in WA, with mineralisation widths exceeding expectations and potential to extend mine life beyond the current FEED study.

Energy & Policy

• The federal and WA governments announced a $4 million pre-feasibility study for a new oil refinery in WA, proposed by Perdaman, as part of a $15 billion fuel security package. Australia now has only two refineries, down from eight, and Treasury warned elevated oil prices pose a substantial threat to inflation and growth.
• Economists and green groups are pushing to extend carbon pricing to the electricity sector ahead of the safeguard mechanism review. Liberal Senator Andrew McLachlan backed the idea, arguing it would be more efficient than the current patchwork of policies.
• Lakes Blue Energy launched an $8 million capital raise to fund its Wombat Gas Field project in Victoria, aiming to capitalise on the predicted East Coast gas supply shortfall.

Critical Minerals & Battery

• Larvotto Resources crushed first ore at the Hillgrove antimony-gold mine in NSW, targeting ~4,900 tpa antimony and 40,000 oz gold over seven years. The company is seeking approval to double throughput and engage on mid-stream refining.
• Core Lithium appointed Anna Neuling as an independent non-executive director as it ramps up production at the Finniss lithium mine in the NT.
• Australia’s Chief Scientist outlined a vision for deeper Australia–South Korea collaboration on critical minerals, supply chains, and advanced technologies, citing existing partnerships like Mineral Resources’ lithium JV with POSCO and Lynas Rare Earths’ downstream deal with JS Link.
• Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting backed precious metals explorer G50 Corp in a $20 million capital raise, taking a 5.6% stake. G50 has exposure to strategic minerals gallium and antimony critical to defence supply chains.