Daily Overview: 24 July 2026

All eyes are on this morning’s Australian PMI flashes (09:00 AEST) after yesterday’s employment blowout of 76,300 jobs. The manufacturing PMI is forecast to slip to 51.1 from 51.5, and services to 50.2 from 50.5 — any upside surprise would cement the case for an RBA rate hike as soon as next month. Bond traders are already pricing a 36% chance of a move in August, and next week’s trimmed mean CPI will be the clincher.

Oil is the other big story. Brent is knocking on $100 a barrel after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and Trump’s threat to hit Iranian power plants. If the Strait of Hormuz gets disrupted, we’re looking at triple-digit crude — a direct tailwind for Santos, Woodside, and every energy stock on the ASX, but a fresh inflation headache for central banks. Watch for any escalation in US-Iran rhetoric today.

Later tonight, US PMI data and new home sales will test the narrative of a slowing American economy. The market is expecting a modest rebound in new home sales after last month’s 7.3% plunge, but the 30-year yield sitting above 5% for 12 straight sessions is a warning that bond vigilantes are in charge. For resources investors, the key tension is between surging commodity prices (oil, gold, rare earths) and the macro headwinds of higher rates and a stronger USD.

Economic Releases

• Australia added 76,300 jobs in June, more than five times the consensus of 15,000, pushing the participation rate to a 13-month high of 67%. The unemployment rate held at 4.4%, but underemployment rose to 6.5% as part-time work surged. Bond traders now see a 36% chance of an RBA rate hike next month and a full hike to 4.6% by year-end.
• US initial jobless claims plunged to 187,000 (consensus 212,000), the lowest in months, while the Chicago Fed National Activity Index improved to -0.02. The data reinforces the view that the US labour market remains too tight for the Fed to cut soon.
• Euro area consumer confidence improved to -15.9 (forecast -17.6), and the ECB held rates steady at 2.4% as expected. The ECB press conference offered no new dovish signals.

Macro & Policy

• Labor’s national conference saw a push to cut the diesel fuel rebate for miners, with the party platform amended to allow the government to remove tax disincentives for decarbonisation. No immediate changes are planned due to the Middle East war, but the option is now live — a direct threat to BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue.
• US-Iran conflict escalated: Trump threatened to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges for each attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and Houthi rebels struck two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. Oil prices hit a six-week high near $100/barrel.
• US-Saudi nuclear deal signed: a 30-year civilian nuclear cooperation agreement that allows Saudi enrichment of uranium, raising non-proliferation concerns and sending a signal to Iran. The deal strengthens US-Saudi ties and counters Russian/Chinese influence.
• US 30-year yield traded above 5% for a 12th consecutive day, the longest stretch since 2007, driven by a $31 trillion Treasury market and annual interest costs exceeding $1 trillion. Fund managers are favouring shorter maturities to limit losses from a potential debt-induced rout.
• ACT Integrity Commission found serious corrupt conduct by two former officials who dishonestly awarded a school refurbishment tender to Lendlease over a cheaper local bid, prioritising CFMEU interests. Education Minister Yvette Berry resigned from cabinet.

Energy & Commodities

• Oil neared $100/barrel in London as Houthi attacks in the Red Sea threatened deeper supply disruptions. Analysts warn that if the Red Sea route is disrupted, tightness will worsen and triple-digit crude is possible if hostilities persist.
• Santos cut full-year production guidance to 99-105 million boe (from 101-111 million) due to commissioning delays at Barossa and Pikka. First-half free cash flow fell to $US378 million from $US1.1 billion, but higher LNG prices from the Middle East conflict are expected to boost the second half.
• Rio Tinto signed a five-year offtake agreement with SuperChar for bio pellets to replace coal at its Gladstone alumina refineries. Trials show up to 30% coal replacement, potentially cutting Scope 1 emissions by 90,000 tonnes CO2e annually. First deliveries targeted for 2028.
• BHP joined a global trial to trace lower-emissions copper from Escondida (100% renewable electricity) through smelting and cable manufacturing to an Amazon Japan logistics facility, using a mass balance credit model.
• Lynas Rare Earths reported record quarterly revenue of $288.9 million (up 70% YoY) on record rare earth prices. Cash reserves grew to $1.2 billion, supporting expansion including a Malaysian magnet factory partnership.
• Aeris Resources secured the mining lease for the Constellation copper-gold project in NSW, extending Tritton’s mine life. Pit waste stripping expected in Q1 FY27.
• Aurelia Metals beat FY26 gold production guidance, achieved record cash flow of $53.1 million, and secured a new $150 million financing package. CEO Bryan Quinn steps down.
• Lotus Resources announced a $138 million rescue package for its Kayelekera uranium mine in Malawi, including a deeply discounted equity raising (66% discount) and convertible notes. The miner has faced operational delays and heavy short selling.

Corporate & Finance

• Macquarie CEO Shemara Wikramanayake will step down after eight years, succeeded by Greg Ward, head of banking and financial services. The market was surprised by the timing and Ward’s appointment, with questions about Macquarie’s next growth phase. Chairman Glenn Stevens also announced a review of KPMG’s auditor appointment after integrity concerns.
• James Hardie upgraded first-quarter sales and earnings forecasts, citing better-than-expected siding sales and normalising decking inventory. Shares rose 6.4%, but the stock remains well below its March 2024 high after the Azek acquisition backlash.
• Google (Alphabet) reported negative free cash flow for the first time since its IPO, driven by AI infrastructure spending guidance of $195-205 billion. Cloud revenue surged 82% but investors punished the stock, down 3.5% after hours.
• Macquarie’s Bingo Industries ended a months-long standoff with lenders, resolving a prolonged dispute.
• Straight Bat’s perpetual trust wrote down several investments, including a 65% reduction in Kase Building Group, but has paid investors a 59-cent dividend per dollar invested since inception.
• Blackmagic Design co-founder Peter Barber filed a lawsuit alleging unpaid dividends and obstruction of a $1.5 billion venture capital deal, seeking a court-ordered buyout or liquidation.