Daily Overview: 2 November 2026

Australian building permits for September land at 10:30 AEDT, with consensus pointing to a 2.1% rebound after August's 6.1% slump — the 1.5% forecast still describes a housing pipeline that is stabilising rather than recovering, which matters for the steel, cement and copper demand that feeds off residential construction. An hour later, China's RatingDog manufacturing PMI is tipped to ease to 51.6 from 52.1 — still comfortably in expansion, but a reminder that the world's biggest commodity buyer is growing more slowly than it was a month ago. The US ISM manufacturing print at 01:00 AEDT is expected to hold near 54.6 with the employment sub-index at 53, a solid number that keeps the Fed's rate path and the US dollar in play. Fed Goolsbee speaks at 02:15.

The main event for Australian readers is tomorrow, not today: the RBA is expected to lift the cash rate to 4.85%, an 18-year high, with money markets pricing an 88% chance and trimmed mean inflation running at 3.7%. Every major bank expects this to be the last hike of the cycle, but that is a forecast, not a fact — and if the RBA's statement leaves the door open, expect another leg down in housing-exposed stocks and more pressure on the banks as they report full-year results this week.

Watch gold and coal names. Aurelia's record quarterly cash flow and Brightstar's Laverton build show the gold sector is generating real money at current prices, and Whitehaven's Winchester South Land Court win gives the coking coal pipeline a rare green light. Oil is the wildcard: tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed crude to six-month highs, and any escalation after the US midterms flows straight through to the diesel costs already squeezing contractors like BMD. On the other side of the ledger, the AI trade is unwinding — the Nasdaq 100 is in correction, Anthropic's US$2trn float is the next test, and the ASX tech sector has fallen nearly 25% in 12 months. The rotation into resources looks increasingly deliberate.

Australia

International

Gold & Base Metals

• Aurelia Metals posted its strongest quarterly operating cash flow since 2018 — $65.3m from Cobar after sustaining capital, up from $53.1m — with gold output of 16,262oz, copper 1,301t and zinc 8,272t; cash rose to $160.7m and the Peak plant expansion to 1.1–1.2Mtpa won final regulatory approval.
• Brightstar Resources stockpiled about 62,000t grading 3.1g/t (roughly 6,200oz) from Second Fortune to feed its Laverton plant, targeting first gold in the June quarter of 2027 at about 75,000ozpa; it ended September with $220.1m total liquidity and $82m in placement commitments, including $30m from Genesis Minerals for Sandstone.
• Saturn Metals intersected mineralisation up to 1km north of Apollo Hill's resource (5m at 11.26g/t), with a DFS and updated ore reserve in train and $110.7m cash after a $100m placement; WA1 Resources firmed up high-grade niobium at Luni (21.4m at 7.4% Nb2O5) with a PFS due in the December quarter and $113m cash.
• Terra Metals is targeting a maiden resource at its Southwest PGM-copper-nickel discovery in early 2027 ahead of a mid-2027 scoping study, as it advances metallurgical testwork and technical drilling.
• Glencore lifted Australian thermal and semi-soft coal output 11% quarter-on-quarter to 17.5Mt after the Ulan West longwall move, with nine-month Australian export thermal coal at 40.9Mt (up 1% year-on-year); Australian zinc fell 19% to 332,600t on the Lady Loretta closure.
• Gina Rinehart's Roy Hill dividend fell 25% to $1.06bn in FY26 while Atlas Iron paid $1.11bn; Hancock Prospecting's net profit slipped almost 10% to $2.8bn, its lowest since 2019, on $11.7bn revenue.

Coal, Approvals & Policy

• Whitehaven Coal's $1bn Winchester South project cleared the Queensland Land Court after a seven-week hearing, with Judge Nicholas Loos citing $696m in royalties and 500 construction and operational jobs; final state and federal approvals are still required for the 35-year, 17Mtpa coking and thermal coal mine.
• A faction of the Orange Local Aboriginal Land Council lodged a fresh section 9 emergency protection application over the Belubula River at Regis Resources' McPhillamys gold project, after the Federal Court overturned Tanya Plibersek's 2024 protection order on procedural grounds.
• BHP launched a public campaign, including a sponsored video by former Bachelor star Matt Agnew, defending the diesel fuel rebate against Fortescue's push to scrap it; the credit is forecast to cost $10.7bn this financial year and $12.8bn by decade's end, and Industry Minister Tim Ayres told a Senate inquiry the government is not considering changes.
• Recyclers warned more than 100,000t of end-of-life mining tyres are buried annually, with only about 2% of off-the-road tyres recovered and up to $200m of natural rubber lost, as global rubber supply is forecast to fall 317,000t short of demand in 2026; a parliamentary inquiry has recommended a staged legislated phase-down of onsite burial.

Markets & Macro

• Wall Street had its worst day since June as the AI trade cracked: the Nasdaq 100 fell 3.6% into correction, Intel plunged about 29% on a missed outlook, Alphabet shed 13% and Amazon fell on heavy capex, with the S&P 500 down 1.8%.
• A suspected hack of Binance — which the FBI attributed to North Korea's TraderTraitor unit — froze more than US$2.5bn and sent bitcoin below US$77,000, with the exchange saying it can cover 90% of stolen assets.
• The RBA is expected to lift the cash rate to an 18-year high of 4.85% on Melbourne Cup Day, with money markets implying an 88% chance and trimmed mean inflation at 3.7%; all four major banks expect it to be the last hike this cycle.
• Coles lost $3.5bn in market value after September-quarter like-for-like supermarket sales grew 2.7% against Woolworths' 6.5%, prompting CEO Leah Weckert to sacrifice December-half earnings growth to fund price investment.
• Victoria's budget update revealed a $5.1bn revenue hit from the property downturn and a $5.1bn budget hole, with net debt now projected to peak at $197bn in mid-2030.

Energy, Data Centres & Policy

• Queensland's long-term energy plan is built on modelling that assumes zero data centre demand growth, with Rennie Advisory's Matt Rennie saying the plan is at least 3GW out of date as developers including Zerra DC (2.16GW near Dalby) and Quinbrook push ahead.
• Data centre developers warned the Albanese government's ambiguous stance is putting investment at risk, with 163 facilities operating and 97 more expected by 2030; Quantum DC abandoned a community forum at Tungkillo after a bomb threat.
• AEMO faces industrial action from specialised workers over pay, with the Fair Work Commission granting a limited suspension of some actions after the operator warned of blackout and safety risks.
• Iran's Revolutionary Guard said four tankers, including a supertanker carrying more than 2m barrels, struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz, as Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered an immediate and geographically unrestricted response to any attack.