Daily Overview: 28 October 2026

Australia's September quarter CPI, out at 10:30am AEDT, is the only number that matters today. Consensus has the trimmed mean at 0.3 per cent for the month and 3.6 per cent for the year — which annualises to roughly a 1 per cent quarterly underlying print, still well north of the RBA's 2–3 per cent band. Headline inflation is forecast to accelerate to 4.2 per cent year-on-year from 4.0 per cent. Money markets are pricing about a 66 per cent chance of a hike to 4.85 per cent on November 3, and a hot core number makes that a near-certainty. RBA officials front a Senate committee at 10:15am, fifteen minutes before the print — expect the questioning to be brutal either way.

Two central bank decisions land overnight. The Bank of Canada (23:45 AEDT) is expected to cut to 2.25 per cent from 2.5 per cent, while the Fed (4am AEDT Thursday) is expected to hold at 4.00 per cent. That divergence is the story for the Aussie, which sits near US70.2¢ even as fund managers hold a record $12.9 billion short position. Watch the EIA crude stocks print at 00:30 AEDT — the API's 2.03 million barrel draw against expectations of a build is a bullish signal for a market already jittery about Iran, with oil having touched US$117 last week.

On the corporate side, Microsoft reports Wednesday US time, days after offering buyouts to 60,000 staff — AI capex guidance will be read as a proxy for the entire data centre complex. Anthropic's IPO pricing chatter continues to drive sentiment, with Australian retail access now being marketed by IG and CommSec while CBA sits on a near-$3 billion stake it probably cannot sell. In resources, watch for follow-through on WA's 75 per cent renewables target and the gas reservation bill, both of which have industry warning about energy costs.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• US CB consumer confidence smashed expectations at 91.7 for October against a consensus of 81 and a previous 84.2 — the largest upside surprise of the session and a sign US household sentiment is holding up despite the AI-driven equity wobble.
• US durable goods orders rose 1.8 per cent in September versus 1.5 per cent expected, with the ex-transport measure at 0.5 per cent, pointing to resilient business investment.
• New home sales came in at 0.676 million against 0.65 million forecast, though the monthly change was -0.6 per cent; building permits fell 0.4 per cent, slightly worse than the -0.2 per cent expected.
• API crude oil stocks fell 2.031 million barrels against expectations of an 0.8 million barrel build — a bullish signal ahead of tonight's EIA data.
• The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate eased to 3.4 per cent from 3.5 per cent, still a robust US growth read.

AI, Markets & Corporate

• Anthropic filed its US IPO prospectus, disclosing a US$80.7 billion net loss on US$16.3 billion of revenue in the first half of 2026, with revenue up 1,368 per cent in the June quarter; the float is expected to value the Claude developer at US$1.5–2 trillion on the Nasdaq under ticker ANT.
• Commonwealth Bank holds a near-$3 billion stake in Anthropic, up from $153 million a year earlier, and analysts expect escrow or strategic reasons will prevent it selling into the listing.
• Australian retail investors are being courted for the float, with IG Australia offering one share at the final IPO price and CommSec leading local marketing; Macquarie Capital is among 22 underwriters.
• Microsoft will offer buyouts to about 60,000 staff across the US, Canada, India and the UK as it retools for AI, and reports results on Wednesday US time.
• NextDC and Megaport withdrew from Canaccord Genuity's Australian tech conference; NextDC chief Craig Scroggie has forgone his FY27 bonuses after a 63 per cent share price fall and a 72 per cent protest vote against last year's pay report.
• Alex Waislitz's Thorney made 38 times its money on Firmus, exiting at $145 and $230 a share, and blamed conservative Australian institutions for killing the $44 billion ASX float.
• ASIC convened its second Financial Markets and Innovation roundtable, with Virgin Australia's Peter Warne and ASX chief Anthony Attia among those addressing the hollowing out of the ASX; Kelly Partners investors voted 99.2 per cent to delist to Nasdaq.
• CSL shares have more than doubled in under five months to a $93.3 billion market value, with outgoing chairman Brian McNamee conceding major errors of judgment on the Vifor acquisition and incoming CEO Deborah Waterhouse, a GSK executive, set to take over.
• Fitch revised Lendlease's outlook to negative on slower capital recycling, with short interest at 8.7 per cent, while Perpetual prepares further redundancies as it outsources operations to State Street.

Gold, Copper & Critical Minerals

• Astral Resources reported 65 RC holes at the Theia deposit averaging 1.51 g/t gold, above the 1.1 g/t stage-one pit target, with intercepts including 15m at 7.54 g/t; the Mandilla DFS is due in the March 2027 quarter.
• Solstice Minerals extended Nanadie to at least 1.5km of strike, with hole NANRCD005 returning 722.3m at 0.44 per cent copper and 0.13 g/t gold beyond the existing 162,000-tonne resource.
• Turaco Gold is raising $105 million — a $95 million placement at 60¢ plus a $10 million SPP — to buy the remaining 20 per cent of the Afema gold project in Côte d'Ivoire from Sodim for US$79 million.
• Northern Star Resources has ordered 25 underground units from Sandvik for its WA gold operations, with deliveries from June 2027; Medallion Metals and Aurelia Metals also released drilling results pointing to deeper gold-copper potential at Kundip and Peak South.
• Austrade launched its largest Critical Minerals Prospectus, covering 94 investment-ready projects, while NSW unveiled an Australian-first Critical Minerals Skills Plan and federal minister Madeleine King flagged a refreshed national strategy and a review of the critical minerals list.
• The Queensland Resources Council warned of a statewide skills shortage, with the industry needing 24,000 new workers by 2027 even as 85 critical minerals projects advance in the North West Minerals Province.

Energy, Policy & the Economy

• Woodside Energy will sell its 33.44 per cent stake in the Greater Sunrise gas field to Timor-Leste's Timor Gap for $285 million, ending 25 years of involvement and handing full control to Dili — with analysts flagging China as a potential new partner.
• WA's Cook government set a 75 per cent renewable target for the South West Interconnected System by 2031, while the state's EPA opened comment on APA's proposed 870MW gas-fired power station at Keralup; the Chamber of Minerals and Energy warned members need power near $100/MWh to stay viable.
• Neoen pledged a further $10 billion of Australian investment by 2030, doubling capacity to 10GW, and Octopus and APG agreed to buy the $2 billion-plus Golden Plains Wind Farm 2 in Victoria.
• Analysts warned the federal gas domestic reservation package contains loopholes, with Santos's Gladstone LNG venture potentially escaping obligations; separately, WA confirmed it is investigating repeated methane plumes at Chevron's Gorgon.
• Greens leader David Shoebridge proposed a $22 billion tax cut funded by $45 billion a year in new gas and mining taxes, including a $17 billion gas export tax.
• Apartment developers warned the proposed tariff on Chinese aluminium windows and doors could add up to $14,000 per apartment and render projects unfeasible, with importers already paying security from October 15.
• CreditorWatch data showed serious arrears at an 8.5-year high in September, with one in 10 invoices more than 60 days overdue, as small business absorbs payday super, surcharge bans and trust tax changes; Victorian Labor promised a three-year stamp duty moratorium on trust restructures.