Daily Overview: 9 July 2026

The Day Ahead

All eyes are on Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Melbourne today, with a landmark uranium supply deal expected to be announced. This would finally unlock the 2014 nuclear co-operation pact and open a new export channel for Australian uranium miners at a time when India is targeting a twelve-fold increase in nuclear capacity to 100 GW by 2047. The deal also signals deeper critical minerals cooperation, particularly rare earths, as India seeks to reduce China’s dominance. Expect the uranium names to trade with a bid.

The BHP Port Hedland strike looms large. With 250 workers walking off the job for eight hours on July 16, the market will be watching for any escalation or last-minute deal. BHP has contingency plans, but a $100 million-plus daily revenue hit is not trivial. Iron ore futures will be sensitive to any supply disruption signals.

Oil prices surged over 3% after US strikes on Iran and the revocation of Iran’s oil sales licence, with a Qatari LNG tanker at risk of exploding in the Strait of Hormuz. This is the biggest geopolitical risk to energy costs since the start of the year. For Australian miners, higher oil means higher diesel and transport costs, and it complicates the RBA’s inflation fight — the central bank already flagged data centre investment as a new inflation risk. The IMF downgraded Australia’s 2026 growth forecast to 1.9%, and the RBA’s chief economist hinted higher unemployment may be needed. The macro backdrop is getting tighter.

Currency Movements

Yesterday's Key Stories

Iron Ore & Steel

• BHP faces an eight-hour strike by 250 workers at its Port Hedland Bulk Export Terminal on July 16 after pay negotiations stalled, threatening over $100 million in daily revenue and $6.85 million in WA royalty payments. BHP has contingency plans including labour-hire replacements.
• Fenix Resources delivered a record quarterly iron ore shipment of 1.299 million wmt in the June quarter, up 33% on the prior quarter, achieving FY26 shipments of 4.4 million wmt within guidance. The company ended the year with $81 million cash and targets FY27 sales of 4.7–5.3 million wmt.
• BHP will replace radiators in its Olympic Dam light vehicle fleet with Terrain Tamer Heavy Duty units after a successful trial, citing 8% greater cooling capacity and a built-in coolant loss sensor.

Gold & Precious Metals

• Alkane Resources reported FY26 production of 168,337 gold equivalent ounces, within the top half of guidance, with June quarter output of 42,491 AuEq ounces. Cash increased $104 million to $432 million, and high-grade gold-antimony intercepts at True Blue (57.6 g/t gold, 25.4% antimony) support development studies.
• Brightstar Resources continues to validate the Sandstone gold project in WA with high-grade continuity and bulk-tonnage potential at Bull Oak and Achilles deposits, ahead of a Mineral Resource Estimate and pre-feasibility study due in H2 2026.
• Southern Cross Gold Consolidated confirmed shallow high-grade antimony at its Sunday Creek project in Victoria, with 7.9m at 19.9 g/t gold equivalent (2.8 g/t gold, 7.1% antimony). The company has 108 composite intersections grading over 10% antimony to date, with 11 drill rigs active and 69 holes pending.

Critical Minerals & Geopolitics

• Australia’s uranium miners are set to benefit from a landmark export deal expected during Prime Minister Modi’s visit, enabling uranium sales to India under the stalled 2014 nuclear co-operation pact. India aims to increase nuclear generation from 8 GW to 100 GW by 2047, driven by AI and data centre demand.
• EQ Resources expanded its Mt Carbine tungsten district in Far North Queensland by acquiring Australian Critical Minerals and TTTP1, adding 353 km² of granted tenure and applications, with total consideration of $900,000 cash and 30 million shares.
• Greatland Gold appointed Nick Strong as COO effective October 2026, bringing 25 years of experience from Rio Tinto, Northern Star, and Newcrest to oversee the Telfer and Havieron projects. Current acting COO Otto Richter will become CTO.
• China launched a long-range ballistic missile test in the Pacific shortly after Australia and Fiji signed the Ocean of Peace Alliance mutual defence treaty. The test has united Pacific capitals in condemnation and boosted interest in the alliance, with New Zealand expressing interest in joining.
• AusIMM’s Critical Minerals Conference 2026 in Brisbane (September 21-23) has received a record number of abstracts and expects over 600 attendees, focusing on geopolitics, supply chains, and net-zero pathways.

Macro & Energy

• The RBA’s June meeting minutes flagged that a surge in data centre investment, driven by AI demand, is competing for workers and resources, exacerbating capacity pressures and making inflation more persistent. The neutral cash rate is now seen as “a little higher” due to global investment in energy transition, defence, and data centres.
• The IMF downgraded Australia’s 2026 growth forecast to 1.9% from 2%, and RBA chief economist Sarah Hunter indicated higher unemployment may be needed to tame inflation. A slim majority of economists expect the cash rate to remain at 4.35% this year, with some seeing a rate rise in August.
• Oil prices rose over 3% after the US launched strikes on Iran and revoked Iran’s oil sales licence, following attacks on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. A Qatari LNG tanker is at risk of exploding, adding to supply disruption fears.
• A nationwide Telstra mobile network outage on Wednesday disrupted emergency calls, train services, and EFTPOS systems across Australia, with services restored by 4pm. The outage affected coal and freight train operations in NSW and highlighted the fragility of digital infrastructure.

Today's Useless Fact

"Stewardesses" is the longest word typed with only the left hand.