Daily Overview: 6 November 2026

Tonight's US nonfarm payrolls (23:30 AEDT) is the single biggest swing factor for commodity markets this week. Consensus sits at 65,000 new jobs against a forecast of just 40,000 and a previous print of 29,000 — a labour market that is clearly cooling but not collapsing, with unemployment expected to hold at 4.2 per cent and average hourly earnings forecast to tick up 0.2 per cent month-on-month. That combination matters enormously right now: markets are pricing a 75–80 per cent chance of a December Fed hike, so a soft payrolls number would take the edge off rate expectations and support gold, copper and the AUD, while a beat would do the opposite. Canada's employment report lands at the same time and is worth watching for a violent swing — forecast +14,000 against a previous -68,300. Add four Fed speakers across the session (Logan at 10:00, Williams at 19:30, Musalem at 00:10, Bowman at 03:15) and there is plenty of scope for volatility. Elsewhere, German industrial production is forecast to slow sharply to 0.2 per cent from 2 per cent, and euro area retail sales are expected flat.

Oil is the commodity to watch after crude plunged as much as 10 per cent to US$93 a barrel on the US midterm result, with traders betting a Democrat-controlled Congress will slow the AI infrastructure build-out and temper the Iran war premium. That relief rally in equities came with a sting for the data centre trade — Nvidia, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and neoclouds like CoreWeave and Iren all sold off hard. Expect that tension to keep running: Goodman Group and Digital Realty's raid on NextDC has the data centre landlord in play, and a substantial holding notice is expected imminently. Watch whether a formal bid emerges, and watch the broader power-demand narrative after a NSW parliamentary committee warned the state's data centre pipeline could consume more than twice the electricity of every Sydney household.

On the local front, the fallout from Woodside's investor briefing will dominate resources conversation — more than 500 jobs cut, a $570 million cost purge, a rewritten dividend policy and first Scarborough LNG cargo just weeks away. The RBA is still managing the reputational damage from this week's hike to 4.85 per cent, with deputy governor Andrew Hauser denying he front-ran the board. Australia's trade surplus blew out to A$2.826 billion yesterday, nearly four times consensus — a reminder that bulk commodity export earnings remain the backbone of the AUD. Gold explorers are also having a moment, with a cluster of high-grade drilling results and a new 3.1-million-ounce resource at Waratah's Spur project.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• Australia's trade surplus surged to A$2.826 billion, nearly four times the A$0.8 billion consensus and up sharply from A$0.184 billion previously — a bullish signal for bulk commodity export earnings and the AUD.
• The Bank of England raised rates to 4 per cent from 3.75 per cent with a unanimous 9-0 vote, far more hawkish than the 7-2 split markets expected, while UK construction PMI slumped to 43.6 against 46.1 consensus.
• US initial jobless claims fell to 189,000 versus 196,000 expected and nonfarm productivity beat at 3.6 per cent against 2.8 per cent — a still-tight labour market that complicates the Fed's path.
• German factory orders rose 4.4 per cent month-on-month, missing the 4.8 per cent consensus but rebounding hard from a 10.1 per cent fall.

Energy, LNG & Coal

• Woodside will cut more than 500 jobs globally — almost 10 per cent of its workforce — as it targets about $570 million in annual cost savings, overhauled its dividend to 20–40 per cent of operating cash flow and set a 12–15 per cent return target. First LNG cargo from the US$12.5 billion Scarborough project is weeks away, with Louisiana LNG due online in 2029.
• Peabody is expanding the gas-fired power station at its Centurion metallurgical coal mine in Queensland from 5MW to 20MW using captured mine gas, while Yancoal's Kestrel mine near Emerald is building a 30MW gas-fired plant using gas from active mining operations.
• Oil fell below US$100 a barrel — down as much as 10 per cent to US$93 — as the US midterm result and gridlock bets triggered a broad risk rally across equities.

Data Centres & Power

• Goodman Group and Digital Realty acquired 7.5 per cent of NextDC at $9.50 a share — a 45 per cent premium — sending the data centre landlord's stock up almost 49 per cent and putting it in play. NextDC has hired Barrenjoey, UBS, Cadence Advisory and Mallesons; no formal bid has been received.
• A NSW parliamentary committee warned that $50 billion of data centres in the state's development pipeline could consume more than twice the electricity of every Sydney household, with Ausgrid projecting data centres could reach 17–30 per cent of state load by 2040.
• Nscale's planned US$35 billion listing hit a setback after Microsoft declined an option to more than double its Texas computing contract, while DigitalBridge is weighing bringing superannuation partners into its $3 billion Plus Es smart meter acquisition.

Gold & Exploration

• Waratah Minerals delivered a maiden 3.1 million ounce gold resource at its Spur project in NSW, with a conceptual exploration target of 5.1–10.4Moz and 12 diamond rigs drilling towards a 5Moz goal.
• Rox Resources intersected 4.87m at 15.13 g/t gold below the Youanmi resource, Maritana Minerals hit 36m at 3.53 g/t beneath Boorara's planned southern pit, and Torque Metals returned 1.1m at 89.64 g/t at its Ritz project.
• Brightstar Resources identified 11 priority targets at its Sandstone gold project with RC drilling starting this month, Riversgold is expanding its Northern Zone footprint near Kalgoorlie roughly 15-fold via a Black Cat tenement deal, and Investigator Silver secured heritage clearance across all disturbance areas at its Paris silver project in South Australia.

Iron Ore, Corporate & Macro

• The Wright family — descendants of Peter Wright — will donate more than $120 million to conservation groups after selling Pilbara iron ore stakes, including 25 per cent of the Rhodes Ridge project to Japan's Mitsui for $4.8 billion.
• BHP will trial Caterpillar's Dynamic Energy Transfer system in FY27 to charge battery-electric haul trucks while moving, though it estimates the extra charging could cost about 1000 hauling hours annually per truck.
• NAB's full-year cash profit fell 13.4 per cent to $6.14 billion as credit impairment charges nearly doubled to $1.5 billion, with properties in possession up 19 per cent; Westpac's net profit slipped 1 per cent to $6.8 billion.
• RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser denied his pre-meeting remarks were intended to signal a rate rise, after board members privately rebuked him for moving market odds from about 20 per cent to 60 per cent before the cash rate was lifted to 4.85 per cent.
• David Jones entered voluntary administration and receivership after talks with landlord Scentre Group failed, with the 188-year-old retailer expected to shrink from 38 stores to as few as 12 and more than 6000 jobs in limbo.
• AustralianSuper became the first superannuation fund globally to win an AAA rating from Moody's, a move expected to save more than $250 million in transaction costs by 2035.
• West Australian canola growers are contemplating legal action over reported million-dollar crop failures across TruFlex and InVigor varieties, with dozens of enquiries to a specialist agribusiness law firm.