Daily Overview: 5 October 2026

The RBA's fourth rate hike of the year to 4.6% continues to reverberate through markets, with Westpac consumer confidence data due this morning at 11:30 AEST likely to show further deterioration. The forecast points to a modest improvement in the index to 83.4 from 84.4, but the change figure is expected to remain deeply negative at -1.2%, suggesting households remain under severe pressure. This matters for commodity markets because consumer sentiment feeds directly into retail spending, housing activity, and ultimately the demand outlook for building materials, energy, and base metals.

US ISM Services PMI overnight will be closely watched for signals on whether the world's largest economy is slowing under the weight of its own rate hikes. The forecast of 55.0 versus a previous 55.4 suggests a marginal cooling, but any reading above 55 still indicates solid expansion. For mining and resources professionals, the key question is whether US services strength translates into continued demand for copper, aluminium, and other industrial inputs, or whether the cumulative effect of tighter policy is finally biting.

Oil remains the wildcard. Brent crude surged above US$102 a barrel yesterday as the G7 agreed to release up to 100 million barrels from emergency reserves, a move that initially pushed prices lower before they recovered. The market is clearly sceptical that reserve releases can offset supply disruptions from the Iran conflict and Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure. Watch for further volatility in energy markets today, with flow-on effects for diesel costs across the mining sector and potential implications for gold if the oil spike continues.

Australia

International

Macro & Policy

• The RBA raised the cash rate for the fourth time this year to 4.6%, a 15-year high, with Governor Bullock warning further increases remain plausible. Treasurer Jim Chalmers confirmed a $22.3 billion underlying cash deficit for 2025-26, roughly double the previous year, as economists warn of a possible "lost decade" with productivity flat since 2020.

• An AFR/Redbridge/Accent Research poll showed Labor's primary vote falling to 28%, with One Nation ahead at 29%. Albanese's net favourability dropped 10 points to minus 27%, and economic management surged as a voter concern from 14% to 21%.

• Trade Minister Don Farrell's proposal for Australian superannuation funds to invest in the US lamb industry to avoid tariffs drew sharp criticism, with Treasurer Chalmers distancing himself and super industry veteran Jeremy Cooper calling the comments "unhelpful." Australian lamb already faces a 12.5% US tariff, and the US International Trade Commission will decide by November 13 whether to recommend further remedies.

• G7 nations agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves over four months through the IEA, with a front-loaded diesel release within 20 days. Brent crude initially fell before recovering above US$102 a barrel as markets questioned whether the release can offset supply disruptions.

Data Centres & AI Infrastructure

• Firmus Technologies is seeking a $43.7 billion valuation in what would be the second-largest ASX float in history, pricing shares at $11 with trading expected to commence October 23. The AI infrastructure company has pivoted from bitcoin mining to data centre development, with Indonesian and Malaysian sites expected to contribute 85% of targeted EBIT. Nvidia holds a 7.2% stake and is the sole chip provider, while Blackstone leads up to US$10 billion in debt facilities.

• The Queensland government will take planning approval for data centres away from local councils under a new framework requiring social impact assessments and community benefit agreements. Premier David Crisafulli said data centre investment must create local jobs, drive down electricity bills, and not "pinch power" from communities.

• Macquarie Capital has taken a stake in Singapore-based data centre developer Zerra DC after partnering on a $30 billion Queensland project anchored by Anthropic. Zerra has a pipeline exceeding 2 gigawatts across Australia, Japan, and India.

• Firmus faces community backlash over its proposed Tasmanian data centre at Mill Park near Devonport, with more than 470 submissions to Latrobe Council and concerns about water use, electricity consumption, and visual impact. The council has asked Firmus to stop work while investigating a possible permit breach.

Private Credit & Corporate Governance

• Metrics Credit Partners published audited financial statements for its three ASX-listed funds after a tense stand-off with KPMG, with write-downs ranging from 2% for the $2.47 billion Master Income Trust to 12% for the Real Estate Multi-Strategy Trust. The $40 billion private credit manager had suspended redemptions from its unlisted wholesale funds after missing statutory deadlines.

• APRA has demanded superannuation funds detail their exposure to Metrics, with Insignia Financial holding about $5.4 billion and Rest Super approximately $1.2 billion. Insignia revised its Metrics assets down by roughly $120 million.

• ANZ has ended its 57-year audit relationship with KPMG, with the bank stating the tenure is "no longer appropriate." KPMG has now lost or will lose contracts worth more than $140 million annually, including Macquarie's $95 million audit, Lendlease's $10 million contract, and IAG's $12 million audit.

• KPMG's global general counsel Anne Collins has retired following scrutiny over her handling of whistleblower allegations that senior audit partners misused confidential client documents. The firm has admitted the whistleblower was not taken sufficiently seriously by Australian leadership.

Mining & Resources

• Fortescue has produced first hot metal at its Christmas Creek green metal project in the Pilbara, using Metso's direct reduced iron smelting furnace technology. CEO Dino Otranto called it a step towards commercial-scale green metal production in Australia.

• KGL Resources awarded Sedgman a design, procurement and construction contract for the processing plant at its Jervois copper project in the Northern Territory. The 2Mtpa plant will produce a single copper concentrate, with a final investment decision expected in coming weeks.

• Terra Metals extended its Southwest PGM-copper-nickel discovery in Western Australia to 1.35km along strike, with diamond drilling returning 336.9m at 1.02g/t 3E, 0.11% copper and 0.19% nickel. A maiden mineral resource estimate is targeted for Q1 2027.

• CuFe is launching a 20,100m drilling campaign at its Tennant Creek copper-gold project in the Northern Territory, following a $600,000 government grant to unlock critical minerals processing capacity. The program includes 17,500m of reverse-circulation and 2,600m of diamond drilling.

• Killi Resources added a second drill rig at its Lodestone iron ore project in Western Australia's Mid-West, targeting the green steel market. The company is drilling a 20,000m program to extend a 110Mt inferred resource across a 25km magnetite system.

• Manuka Resources received its first gold revenue from the restarted Wonawinta processing facility in the Cobar Basin, expecting fortnightly revenue of $3-4 million through 2026 at a gold price of $6,000 per ounce. The company is targeting combined gold-silver production by late 2026.

• Metallium advanced its flash joule heating platform with a 12-hour chlorination campaign across three reactors at its Texas Technology Campus, processing PGM-bearing catalytic converter material. Earlier testwork achieved more than 83% rare earth chloride grading in a single cycle.