Daily Overview: 22 September 2026

Australia's flash PMIs land at 9:00 AEST and the forecast points to a modest deceleration — manufacturing at 51.7 from 52.0, services at 52.5 from 53.2. Both remain in expansion, but the direction of travel matters for the RBA, particularly with traders now positioning for as many as three rate rises. Offshore, the UK's CBI industrial trends orders are forecast at -40 versus -34 previously, a further deterioration in a market already struggling with energy costs, while euro area consumer confidence is tipped to slip to -17 from -16.5. Three Fed speakers — Williams, Jefferson and Barkin — will be watched closely after yesterday's Chicago Fed National Activity Index printed at -0.04 against a forecast of 0.2, a sharp miss that complicates the US rate narrative.

Oil remains the dominant macro risk. The API crude stock change tonight follows last week's 7.14 million barrel build, but inventories are the wrong lens right now — CBA's Vivek Dhar has flagged Brent could need to reach US$150 to trigger demand destruction, with global stockpiles as low as five weeks. The Moscow Oil Refinery was hit again over the weekend and Costco is rationing motor oil. Watch diesel and refined product spreads rather than headline crude.

On the corporate front, the Intergenerational Report fallout will continue to shape the political conversation around productivity, migration and tax, with Chalmers under pressure to outline a credible reform path. Copper is the commodity to watch — Regal's call that BHP trades at $100 within five years and Terra Capital's 45.9 per cent return on a copper-led thesis suggest the re-rating trade has legs. Data centre demand for industrial land and grid capacity is becoming a genuine second-order theme for resources investors.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in at -0.04 for August against a forecast of 0.2 and a previous reading of 0.08 — a significant miss that suggests US economic momentum is weaker than consensus assumed, with implications for the Fed's rate path.
• RBA's Hunter gave a speech but no policy signal was captured in the calendar data.

Copper, Gold & Critical Minerals

• Terra Capital founder Jeremy Bond says the commodity cycle is at its start, led by copper, with his $235 million Natural Resources fund returning 45.9 per cent in the year to August; copper makes up about a third of the fund, with largest holdings Canada-listed Faraday and Solstice Minerals, the latter up more than 520 per cent this year on WA copper and gold finds.
• Regal Partners predicts BHP and CBA will both trade near $100 in five years — BHP surging on its position as the world's largest copper miner, CBA slumping on credit risks — with BHP already up over 30 per cent this year to a record $68.77 and a $308 billion market cap.
• Geoscience Australia's Delamerian project has identified new exploration opportunities for critical minerals, copper and gold beneath a 1000km continental-scale arc system spanning South Australia, NSW and Victoria, the first deep-dive study under the 35-year Resourcing Australia's Prosperity initiative.
• Larvotto Resources produced first antimony and gold concentrate at its Hillgrove mine in NSW, targeting approximately 4,900 tonnes of antimony and 40,500 ounces of gold per annum over an initial eight-year mine life, with offtake agreements in place with Wogen Resources and Glencore.
• Huntore Australia's Mount Garnet polymetallic operation signed a long-term offtake with US tin refiner Nathan Trotter & Co covering up to 100 per cent of production, expected to reach up to 3,000 tonnes of tin a year, establishing a Queensland-US supply link.
• Sinclair Gold intersected gold mineralisation about 180m beyond the current resource boundary at Mt Henry and extended known mineralisation 75m beyond the boundary at Selene, with results received after the July 31 cut-off for the updated 1.8Moz resource estimate.
• Regis Resources extended the known mineralised system at its Rosemont underground mine by 600m south of the current resource envelope, with results to feed into a broader exploration update across Duketon, Tropicana and McPhillamys in Q2 FY27.
• Tungsten Mining launched a $50 million placement through Jefferies and Euroz Hartleys at a 16.9 per cent discount to fund capital expenditure at its Watershed mine in Queensland, targeting a final investment decision by end-2027; Aurum Resources separately sought $50 million for its Boundiali gold project in Côte d'Ivoire.

Oil, Energy & Macro

• Oil markets are under severe stress with Brent around US$101 after an attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, Aramco cancelling deliveries to some European refiners, France reporting one in nine petrol stations out of fuel, and Costco rationing motor oil; CBA's Vivek Dhar assigned a 15 per cent probability to military escalation pushing Brent above US$150.
• Moscow and its surrounding region came under attack by hundreds of drones on the final day of Russian elections, with about 1,600 drones shot down and the Moscow Oil Refinery in Kapotnya damaged again; Russia faces widespread fuel shortages.
• The 2026 Intergenerational Report projects deaths outpacing births from the 2060s, fertility falling to 1.34, and net overseas migration stabilising at 235,000 a year; under a downside 0.8 per cent productivity scenario, gross debt reaches 55.9 per cent of GDP by 2065-66 versus 33.1 per cent today.
• The ASX is tipped to fall as traders position for three RBA rate rises, with the Intergenerational Report's productivity assumptions and migration cuts adding to the domestic growth uncertainty.
• The Whyalla steelworks could remain in KordaMentha's hands until March 2027 after the Federal Court approved an extension, with final bidders M Resources and India's Jindal Steel International negotiating to acquire the steelworks, iron ore mines and port, and both planning a new modern blast furnace.
• Safe Work Australia's new workplace exposure rules, effective December 1, will tighten limits for about 250 of more than 600 substances, with WA grain growers warning the phosphine limit will be cut by 80 per cent and mining groups seeking changes or delays; WorkSafe Victoria has delayed limits for 15 contaminants until 2029.

Corporate & Deals

• Telix Pharmaceuticals agreed to buy Munich-based ITM Isotope Technologies for up to US$3.3 billion, creating an $8 billion radiopharmaceutical developer with a global distribution network across 65 countries and combined annual revenue expected at US$1.3 billion.
• Perpetual rejected a best and final $2.6 billion takeover proposal from Sweden's EQT at $22.50 a share plus a 60c dividend, citing unacceptable execution risk; investors lashed the decision as "total madness" and Perpetual shares fell almost 14 per cent on Monday.
• Warburg Pincus vowed to press on with its $3 billion pursuit of Ingenia Communities after the board rejected a revised $5.05 per security proposal, with Citi analysts noting shareholders viewed $5.25 to $5.50 as compelling near term.
• Goodman Group will face a shareholder resolution at its November AGM demanding disclosure of how it assesses environmental and social licence risks from its data centre business, with data centres now almost 80 per cent of its $19.7 billion work-in-progress total.
• Jefferies is pursuing Glencore over US$526.4 million in overdue payments linked to iron ore trader Radiant World, with a Jefferies lawyer telling a London court the trader had been part of a "very large-scale fraud"; Glencore has suspended its head of iron ore pending review.
• ASIC launched civil penalty proceedings against former Super Retail chief executive Anthony Heraghty over alleged undisclosed conflicts of interest and misleading market disclosures, seeking disqualification orders that could affect his new role as CEO of Winning Group.