Daily Overview: 3 September 2026

All eyes turn to the US ISM Services PMI tonight (00:00 AEST) — consensus at 54.3 versus 54.1 previous. A strong print will reinforce the "higher for longer" narrative that has driven the global bond selloff, and with oil above $94, the RBA's September 29 meeting is now live for a hike. Money markets are pricing a 65% chance of a move, and today's Australian Balance of Trade (11:30 AEST) will feed into that calculus — the forecast of A$1.1B is well below the A$1.929B previous, reflecting softer commodity prices. A miss here adds to the case for tightening, not against it.

Also watch the Chinese RatingDog Services PMI (11:45 AEST) — forecast 50.8 versus 50.4 previous. A beat would signal services resilience despite the property drag, supportive for iron ore sentiment. RBA speeches from Jones (11:00) and Hunter (15:15) will be scoured for any pushback on market pricing. With the 10-year at 5.2% and the global bond meltdown showing no signs of abating, expect the RBA speakers to be pressed on whether they can tolerate this level of financial tightening without acting on rates.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• Australian GDP beat expectations: Q2 growth of 0.4% q/q and 2.1% y/y, well above consensus (0.3%/1.8%) and RBA forecasts, driven by household consumption and a 10.3% surge in vehicle purchases as buyers shifted to EVs amid high fuel prices.
• US ADP employment came in at 38K, well below the 47K consensus and 46K previous — a softening labour market that complicates the Fed's hawkish pivot.
• US Factory Orders rose 0.9% versus 0.6% consensus, while EIA crude stocks fell 4.45M barrels, far more than the 1.1M draw expected, adding to oil price pressure.

Macro & Policy

• Global bond markets are in full meltdown: US 10-year yields hit 4.8%, Japanese 10-year yields touched 3% for the first time since 1996, and Australian 10-year yields reached 5.2% — a 15-year high. The selloff is driven by Trump's trade wars, the US-Iran conflict pushing oil above $94, and AI-driven debt issuance.
• The US-Iran conflict reignited with fresh attacks from both sides, threatening the Strait of Hormuz and energy supplies. Russia is reportedly helping Iran develop supersonic cruise missiles, escalating the strategic threat to US naval assets in the region.
• The strong GDP print has flipped the RBA narrative from cuts to hikes, with money markets pricing a 65% chance of a September move and a possible fifth hike before Christmas. HSBC is forecasting a 13% peak-to-trough housing correction.
• Australia's GDP growth of 2.1% exceeded forecasts despite the Iran war, three rate rises, and tax changes — but the full impact of the property downturn and budget policy is yet to be felt.

Resources & Energy

• Mineral drilling activity hit a five-year high in the June quarter, with total metres up 29.1% from March and new-deposit drilling surging 68.9% — though ADIA warns new-deposit drilling is still only 23.7% of total metres.
• Tungsten Mining's Mt Mulgine pre-feasibility study delivered a pre-tax NPV of $6.82 billion and 55% IRR on an $870 million initial development, with first production targeted for 2029 and a DFS starting this month.
• Sibanye-Stillwater received board approval to restart Tasmania's Mt Lyell copper mine, closed since 2014, with a $490 million investment creating 300+ jobs and production of 26,000 tonnes of copper annually from early 2029.
• Element Zero secured up to $26 million from ARENA to scale its green iron technology, aiming to demonstrate 1 tonne/day production in WA with a potential 10 tonnes/day second stage — capturing 5-6 times the export value of raw iron ore.
• WA's Energy Minister Amber-Jade Sanderson warned BHP and Rio Tinto against retreating from Pilbara decarbonisation commitments, calling for shared energy infrastructure and expressing disappointment at reduced green spending.
• WA is pushing a merger of Griffin Coal and Premier Coal, the state's only two coal miners, ahead of the 2030 deadline to retire state-owned coal power stations.
• Wiluna Mining is preparing an IPO to raise $160-200 million at 65-85 cents per share for ASX relisting, supported by gold prices above $US4,300/oz.
• Tamboran Resources is courting oil and gas multinationals and Asian LNG buyers to fund Beetaloo Basin scale-up, with gas now flowing into its $US99 million Shenandoah South plant.
• The electrician shortage is reaching crisis point: data centre demand, the housing target, and the energy transition have pushed data centre sparkie wages above $200,000, with a shortfall of 5,400 electricians expected by 2028.