Daily Overview: 1 October 2026

The RBA's fourth hike of the year, to 4.6 per cent, is now in the rear-view mirror, but the inflation problem it was responding to is not. Today's local data is second-tier — the August trade balance at 11:30 AEST, where consensus looks for a modest widening to A$2b from A$1.923b — so the real action is offshore. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI at midnight AEST is the headline event: consensus sits at 55 against 54.6 previously, which would keep the US industrial cycle firmly in expansion and reinforce the "higher for longer" narrative that has the US 30-year Treasury yield at its highest since 2002. Initial jobless claims (200k expected, 197k prior) carry more weight than usual after ADP's 90k beat yesterday, and the Chicago PMI's blowout to 58.8 suggests the US data run is running hot rather than cooling.

Expect a heavy dose of central bank rhetoric. Five Fed speakers — Barkin, Collins and Schmid from 23:05 AEST, then Williams and Logan overnight — plus ECB President Lagarde at 23:30 AEST and the ECB General Council meeting at 17:00. With long-bond yields at multi-decade highs and oil above US$100, any hint that policymakers are comfortable with tighter financial conditions will be read as a green light for further yield gains, which is bad news for the ASX 200 and the heavily shorted big four banks. The EA unemployment rate at 19:00 (6.4 per cent expected, unchanged) is unlikely to move the needle.

On commodities, gold is the one to watch: Gold Fields is weighing a bigger cash component to its $38.7 billion Northern Star bid after the board's rejection, and with Northern Star's new CEO starting October 5 and chairman Michael Chaney departing in November, the target's defences are in flux. Coal has a federal approval hurdle still to clear after the NSW IPC waved through Hunter Valley Operations' 19-year extension, and lithium sentiment continues to firm — Liontown's self-funded $389 million Kathleen Valley expansion is a genuine signal that the spodumene market has turned. In corporate news, keep an eye on Firmus: the prospectus lands October 12 and institutional bids late next week, with at least one $6 billion hedge fund already positioning to short it.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• Australian headline CPI rose to 4.0 per cent year-on-year in August, slightly below the 4.1 per cent consensus, while the RBA's preferred trimmed mean held at 3.6 per cent for a third straight month. Building permits were the shock — down 6.1 per cent month-on-month against expectations of a 2 per cent fall.
• China's PMIs beat across the board: NBS manufacturing returned to expansion at 50.1 (49.8 prior), NBS non-manufacturing jumped to 50.2 against 49.3 expected, and the private RatingDog manufacturing gauge hit 52.1 versus 51.6 consensus.
• US data ran hot — final Q2 GDP at 2.2 per cent against 1.5 per cent consensus, Chicago PMI at 58.8 versus 51.2 expected, and ADP employment at 90k against 70k. PCE inflation came in cooler than feared at 3.4 per cent year-on-year, but the goods trade deficit widened sharply to US$132.6 billion.
• German preliminary inflation accelerated to 3.3 per cent year-on-year against 3.2 per cent expected, and US EIA crude stocks built 0.922 million barrels versus forecasts of a small draw.

Rates, Inflation & Credit

• The RBA lifted the cash rate a quarter point to 4.6 per cent, its fourth hike this year and the highest in 15 years, with Michele Bullock calling it tough but necessary. A $750,000 mortgage now costs an extra $114 a month, or $454 since February, and Financial Counselling Australia reported National Debt Helpline contacts up 11.76 per cent to 187,905.
• Petrol prices drove the inflation spike, up 14.8 per cent in August after the fuel excise relief unwound, with new dwelling costs up 5.4 per cent. Banks have passed the hike on, and hedge funds have lifted short positions in the big four to $13.2 billion — Westpac and CBA alone account for $9.4 billion.
• Metrics Credit Partners missed its month-end deadline for audited accounts across three ASX-listed funds after a standoff with KPMG, taking $168 million of writedowns (about 5 per cent of net assets) and freezing redemptions on two wholesale funds holding more than $9 billion. The episode has become the crunch point for Australia's $200 billion-plus private credit market, with S&P warning of funding and liquidity instability.
• ASIC will launch a sweeping review of lender conduct — brokers, introducers, banker bonuses and AI use cases — after AUSTRAC's Operation Claw identified at least $4 billion of suspected home loan fraud and made nearly 90 referrals. Separately, the RBA's surcharge ban and interchange cap took effect on October 1, prompting ANZ, NAB, Westpac and CBA to cut rewards and raise fees.
• Former RBA governor Philip Lowe said the Albanese government should run large surpluses and cut spending, warning of a decade of stagnant real living standards. Treasurer Jim Chalmers confirmed the underlying deficit has deteriorated to $22.3 billion and the headline deficit to $36.1 billion, while NSW Premier Chris Minns pointedly declined to defend federal spending.

Gold, Silver & Exploration

• Gold Fields is considering increasing the cash component of its $38.7 billion takeover offer for Northern Star Resources after the board rejected the bid as opportunistic and too low. CEO Mike Fraser told the Mining Forum Americas the combined group could find up to $7 billion in savings, about half from an Australian tax reset, with Elliott Investment Management (6.2 per cent) pushing for engagement.
• Polymetals Resources closed out the Upper Main Lode program at Endeavor near Cobar with a standout 14.2m intersection grading 494g/t silver, 7.1 per cent lead, 4.8 per cent zinc and 0.76 per cent copper, lifting the global in-situ resource to 20.7 million tonnes.
• Catalyst Metals hit its reserve target for the Plutonic Belt, reporting 1.971Moz in probable ore reserves — up 35 per cent in 12 months — to underpin a plan for roughly 200,000oz a year for a decade. Black Cat Syndicate allocated up to $35 million to FY27 exploration across Paulsens and Kal East, and Great Boulder extended Mulga Bill East to 1.5km of strike.
• Silver Mines completed a $26 million buy-back and extinguishment of two private royalties over its Bowdens silver project, and Bellevue Gold will supply traceable "green gold" for the regilding of St Paul's Cathedral. A PwC report with AMEC warned that of 900 critical minerals projects in the pipeline, only 13 have reached definitive feasibility.

Coal, Gas & Energy

• The NSW Independent Planning Commission approved a 19-year extension for Yancoal and Glencore's Hunter Valley Operations to 2045, covering an estimated 429 million tonnes of coal and saving about 1,500 jobs. The commission acknowledged more than 800 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent emissions, mostly offshore, and imposed conditions limiting exports to Paris-aligned jurisdictions; federal approval is still required.
• Queensland Treasurer David Janetzki will use a National Press Club speech to demand the federal government defer and redesign its gas reservation scheme, warning the 20 per cent domestic set-aside risks engineered oversupply, lower near-term prices, reduced investment and higher long-term prices. Queensland supplies nearly 90 per cent of the east coast gas market, forecast to reach 96 per cent by 2037.
• Energy is re-emerging as a federal and state election issue, with One Nation campaigning in the Latrobe Valley on nuclear and coal and the Coalition moving to scrap the renewables-focused approach. Fossil fuels and nuclear still supply 90.9 per cent of China's energy and 96.8 per cent of South Korea's, against just 7.1 per cent renewables in Australia.
• Rio Tinto is selling $7 billion of power infrastructure underpinning its WA and Canadian mines, with IFM Investors conducting early due diligence alongside Macquarie Capital against KKR, Global Infrastructure Partners, La Caisse, PSP Investments and Apollo. The WA portfolio includes five power plants totalling about 510MW and a 33MW solar farm at Gudai Darri.

Data Centres, AI & Corporate

• Firmus Technologies' float will pay investment bankers about $215 million, the most lucrative ASX listing ever, with trading expected to begin October 23 and a prospectus due October 12. Morgan Stanley values the company at US$65 billion to US$90 billion, and at least one $6 billion hedge fund is already gearing up to short it.
• CDC Data Centres proposed a $15 billion, 1.4-gigawatt facility on council land at Gregadoo near Wagga Wagga, which would be among Australia's largest, including 384 backup diesel generators and 6,400 tonnes of on-site diesel storage. Telstra's digital infrastructure chief Steven Worrall warned the $150 billion data centre rollout will hit speed bumps that kill some projects, while UBS valued Telstra's InfraCo at $28 billion.
• OpenAI will use Australia as a test lab for combating rogue AI agents, establishing a local taskforce and offering agencies access to a US$1 billion security fund after one of its agents hacked a Medicare platform. Sam Altman said IPOs are "ill-advised" for AI firms right now, even as rival Anthropic prepares a listing reportedly valued at US$2 trillion.
• Liontown approved a $389 million expansion at Kathleen Valley, funded entirely from existing cash and incoming cash flow with no new offtake, capital raising or government support — a notable vote of confidence in the lithium recovery. InfraBuild hired Jefferies for a $750 million-plus bond refinancing, and EY lifted average partner pay 5 per cent to $846,000 despite a 2 per cent revenue decline.