Daily Overview: 1 July 2026

All eyes are on the RBA today as the market awaits the release of the June meeting minutes. Expect a hawkish tone; the board is openly concerned that union-led inflation expectations are running too hot, and the 4.75% wage hike from the Fair Work Commission has likely skewed previous forecasts. If the minutes suggest a higher probability of further rate hikes to curb this "wage-price spiral," expect the ASX to struggle, particularly the big four banks which are already facing valuation headwinds.

On the commodity front, watch for a divergence between "virtual" and "physical" assets. While the tech rebound in the S&P 500 provides a tailwind for the ASX, the real momentum is shifting toward AI-driven infrastructure. Copper and gold should remain resilient as the market pivots toward the physical requirements of data centres, though speculative froth in these names may invite a short-term correction.

Mining & Resources

• Fortescue hit a major operational milestone, shipping 200 million tonnes of iron ore in a single year as part of its broader "Real Zero" decarbonisation push.
• Hancock Iron Ore commenced production at its $840 million McPhee Creek mine in the Pilbara, with ore being routed to Roy Hill for processing.
• Greatland Resources reported a combined Ore Reserve of 5 million ounces of gold and 196,000 tonnes of copper for its Telfer-Havieron complex.
• Manuka Resources completed a $US30 million funding facility to restart the Wonawinta silver and Mt Boppy gold projects.
• Southern Cross Gold began the first underground exploration decline at Sunday Creek, the first such development in Victoria in 20 years.
• Yancoal is undergoing a staged closure of the Ashton underground coal mine, with a full shutdown expected by early 2028.
• Bradken expanded its Bassendean fabrication facility in WA to provide integrated wear solutions and asset refurbishment for the sector.
• TECO Australia launched a new range of Group I certified underground motors designed for harsh mining environments.
• Liebherr delivered three PR 776 G8 dozers to MACA for use at the Duketon Gold Project.

Macro & Policy

• The RBA warned that inflation expectations among unions are too high, suggesting the board remains open to increasing the cash rate.
• The US Supreme Court upheld the independence of the Federal Reserve by blocking President Trump's attempt to fire Governor Lisa Cook, though it granted the president expanded powers to remove officials from other independent agencies.
• The Australian Government implemented several new financial measures for the new financial year, including income tax cuts, a 4.75% minimum wage increase, and a new tax on super balances exceeding $3 million.
• APRA warned that the concentration of power within a few large superannuation funds increases systemic vulnerabilities and liquidity risks.
• The ACCC is suing Amazon over allegedly unfair contract terms that forced Prime Video subscribers to pay extra to remain ad-free.
• BMO Financial Group is acquiring the capital markets arm of Euroz Hartleys for $145 million to expand its metals and mining investment banking presence in Australia.