Daily Overview: 28 August 2026

All eyes turn to the US session tonight with Fed Chair Warsh speaking (00:00 AEST) — any hawkish signals will ripple through the AUD and base metals. More immediately, Canadian GDP data at 22:30 AEST is forecast to rebound sharply to 3.4% annualised from -0.1%, a swing that could firm the USD and pressure gold. The consensus expects a strong bounce, so any miss will be notable.

On the domestic front, the inflation story continues to dominate. With household spending growing at 7% annually and trimmed mean inflation stuck at 3.6%, the RBA is under mounting pressure to hike as early as September. Watch for any further commentary from policymakers today — the bond market is already pricing a fourth rate rise, and resources stocks with high debt loads will feel the squeeze.

The private credit saga is far from over. Centuria's pledge to reopen its Bathla-exposed funds within six months will be tested as administrators seek $15-20 million to keep Universal Property Group operating. Any news on lender recoveries or fund redemptions will move the financials and property sectors. Meanwhile, Qantas and Wesfarmers results are out — the market will be parsing the fuel cost hit and Officeworks transformation drag respectively.

International

Economic Releases

• US goods trade balance blew out to a $-118.8B deficit (advance), well above the $-99B consensus — the widest gap in recent memory and a clear headwind for Q3 GDP estimates.
• US initial jobless claims came in at 203K, below the 208K consensus, signalling continued labour market resilience that keeps the Fed hawkish.
• Canadian current account swung to a C$8.8B surplus from a C$-8.3B deficit, a massive revision driven by energy exports — supportive for the loonie and oil complex.
• German GfK consumer confidence improved to -26.6 from -29.4, beating the -29.6 consensus, though still deeply negative.

Macro & Policy

• Australian inflation data shows broad domestic price pressures, with household spending growing 7% annually — the fastest in three years. Economists at major banks now expect RBA rate hikes as early as September, with some forecasting two.
• Former Productivity Commission chair Gary Banks slammed Treasurer Chalmers' budget measures — higher CGT, renewable energy push, and pro-union workplace changes — arguing they harm productivity and erode Treasury's credibility.
• WA Premier Roger Cook refused to apologise for calling Productivity Commission staff "east coast clowns" over the GST deal review, escalating a war of words with federal Treasury.
• PM Albanese intervened to maintain the refugee intake at 20,000, overriding Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke's plan to cut it to 13,750 — a reversal that complicates net overseas migration targets.

Private Credit & Property

• Bathla's collapse threatens to become Australia's biggest property crash, with $3.5 billion in debts across 219 development projects. Administrators Teneo need $15-20 million to keep Universal Property Group operating, and lenders including Ray White Capital, Centuria, and PAG face significant exposures.
• ASIC chair Sarah Court warned of "first significant cracks" in Australia's $200 billion private credit sector, citing opaque fees, weak governance, and redemption limits at MA Financial and others. The Financial Services Council has introduced new standards effective July next year.
• Centuria Capital expects to reopen two Bathla-exposed credit funds within two to six months, but its stock slumped 17% as analysts questioned the private lending business. Joint CEO John McBain will step down in November.

Resources & Mining

• South32 delivered a five-fold profit increase to US$1.08 billion, boosted dividends 55%, and outlined a copper-focused strategy after selling its aluminium business to Alcoa. Cannington's mine life extended to FY33 with a 28% increase in Ore Reserves.
• Mineral Resources posted record FY26 revenue of $6.5 billion (up 44%) and reinstated a fully franked 83¢ dividend — a $17.3 million windfall for Chris Ellison — while reducing net debt to $4.3 billion.
• Lynas Rare Earths reported record revenue of $977.9 million with net profit of $222.4 million, driven by a 12% lift in NdPr sales volumes and record average selling prices, supported by Japanese and US supply agreements.
• Boss Energy's Honeymoon feasibility study outlines a nine-year uranium production plan averaging 1.9 million pounds per year between FY30-FY33, with AISC of $79/lb — a 42% decrease in contained uranium but lower costs per pound.
• Qantas profit slid 13.1% to $2.06 billion on a $420 million fuel cost hit from the Iran war, with the airline scrapping a $150 million buyback and cutting domestic and US capacity.
• Wesfarmers net profit fell 1.8% to $2.87 billion, with Bunnings and Kmart delivering earnings growth but Officeworks earnings down 22.2% on transformation costs. Bunnings CEO Michael Schneider will retire.
• Capricorn Metals targets a 150,000-ounce gold run rate as the Karlawinda expansion ramps up, with record FY26 results including $483.6 million underlying EBITDA and a maiden dividend.
• IGO returned to profit with Nova delivering strong performance, but Kwinana remained problematic with a $167 million EBITDA loss. The Nova sale to Global Lithium awaits ACCC approval.
• 29Metals will restart the Xantho Extended orebody at Golden Grove in December, with copper production rising to 11,200 tonnes in H1 2026.
• Aurelia Metals is advancing the Great Cobar copper-gold project with first production targeted for FY28, after FY26 revenue rose 40% to $480.2 million.
• Brightstar Resources reported a standout 225.7m intersection grading 3.11 g/t gold at Two Mile Hill, supporting a potential large-scale underground operation.
• Maritana Minerals extended high-grade gold at Burbanks with intercepts up to 25.19 g/t, supporting conversion of inferred resources to indicated category.