Daily Overview: 26 August 2026

All eyes are on the 11:30 AEST inflation print. The consensus looks for headline CPI to ease to 3.3% YoY from 3.8%, but the monthly figure is forecast to jump to 0.8% — and with RBA board minutes yesterday revealing several members are eyeing another hike, a hot number will put a September move firmly back on the table. The trimmed mean is expected to hold at 3.6% YoY, which is still too sticky for the board's comfort. Construction work done is also due and forecast to rebound 0.5% after a 4.3% surge last quarter.

Stateside, the second estimate of US GDP is due at 22:30 AEST, with forecasts pointing to a sharp slowdown to 1.5% from 2.1%. The core PCE deflator is the one to watch for commodity markets — a 0.3% monthly print would confirm inflation is re-accelerating and keep the Fed hawkish. Durable goods orders are expected to firm to 0.7%, which would signal manufacturing resilience. The EIA crude inventory report follows at 00:30, with a 0.6M barrel build expected after last week's 4.4M jump.

The data centre power crunch story is the one to watch locally. AEMO's warning yesterday that renewables delays and data centre demand threaten reliability is now a political football, and with the Tasmanian council approving a 288MW AI facility at Bell Bay, expect more noise on nuclear versus renewables today. Woodside's strategic pivot away from clean energy targets will also keep the energy transition debate simmering.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• RBA minutes confirmed a hawkish lean: Several board members believe another rate rise may be needed to tame inflation, citing upside risks from the Iran war, AI infrastructure investment, and stagnant productivity. The board left rates at 4.35% but the hawkish tilt sent a clear signal.
• German Ifo business climate beat expectations at 88.8 versus 87.2 consensus, a solid rebound from 86.7 previously — a rare piece of good news for the eurozone outlook.
• US housing data was weak: New home sales plunged 10.5% MoM to 0.607M, well below the 0.62M consensus, while the Case-Shiller index rose 2.1% YoY, ahead of the 1.7% forecast. CB Consumer Confidence slipped to 89.4 from 90.2, missing expectations.
• US API crude stocks rose 4.2M barrels, well above the 1.8M consensus, pointing to a bearish EIA print tonight.

Energy & Policy

• AEMO warned that data centre power demand and renewables delays threaten grid reliability over the next decade, with 13 GW of coal retirements looming. The warning has become a political flashpoint, with the Coalition pushing nuclear and the government defending its renewables pipeline.
• Woodside scrapped its clean energy investment targets and Scope 3 emissions goal, with new CEO Liz Westcott pivoting to an energy-agnostic, returns-focused strategy. The US ammonia business is under strategic review, and the company will cut $350 million in annual costs from 2028.
• Australia's wind industry is in a 'drought': Only 4 of 31 wind projects under the Capacity Investment Scheme have reached financial close, with construction costs up 30-50% and a gap between required prices and buyer offers threatening the 2030 renewables target.
• Reputex modelling showed meeting Paris climate targets would require carbon credit prices to hit $220 by the early 2030s — a 5.5-fold increase from current levels — as aluminium smelters lobby for more flexible Safeguard Mechanism rules.

Metals & Mining

• BHP overtook CBA as the ASX's most valuable company, with shares hitting a record above $68 on the copper price surge. Active fund managers remain underweight resources, but Regal Partners expects BHP's index weighting to rise to 15%.
• Ramelius Resources reported a 79% surge in ore reserves to 4.3Moz and a 17% lift in resources to 14Moz, with exploration adding ~1.8Moz at an average cost of just $55/oz. The company is targeting 500,000oz annual production by FY30.
• Westgold outlined a $100 million Meekatharra processing expansion that would lift throughput 61% to 2.9 Mtpa by FY2028, adding ~47,000oz of gold per year with a nine-month payback.
• Alcoa broke ground on its gallium recovery project at Wagerup in WA, which will produce up to 10% of global gallium supply — a boost to Australia's critical minerals credentials.
• NSW coal exports rose 6% to nearly 162 million tonnes, driven by stronger Asian demand from Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea, generating over $26 billion in annual revenue.
• Fortescue suspended an executive at the centre of a sexual harassment probe, reversing an earlier decision to allow the senior leader to keep working. BHP separately reported 113 sexual harassment incidents in FY2026, up from 102.

Macro & Politics

• China's new ambassador urged Australia to respect Beijing's 'core interests' amid renewed strategic frictions over missile tests and the South China Sea, even as trade ties improve.
• The US threatened to 'sever every economic lifeline' to Iran, with Treasury Secretary Bessent announcing sanctions on any person operating in five key sectors of Iran's economy. China warned it will retaliate if the sanctions target its banks.
• The Productivity Commission's GST report triggered a political brawl, with the PM and WA premier attacking the commission's finding that the 2018 WA deal was a 'costly mistake' costing the federal budget $23 billion.
• MA Financial imposed a 1% monthly redemption limit on its $2.3 billion private credit fund amid elevated redemption activity, as the Bathla collapse pressures the sector. Centuria Capital disclosed exposure to six Bathla assets.
• Coles reported marginal profit growth of 1% to $1.09 billion after a $235 million provision for staff underpayments, with underlying profit up 13.7% and online grocery sales surging 26.4%.