Daily Overview: 13 July 2026

The US-Iran conflict escalates sharply after Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz and struck a container ship, drawing US airstrikes on Iranian targets. Oil markets are bracing for a sustained supply disruption — about 20% of global traded oil and LNG transits that chokepoint. Watch for further price spikes in crude and LNG today, and any diplomatic signals from Washington or Tehran. Gold has slipped below $4,080/oz as real yields rise, but safe-haven demand could return quickly if the conflict widens.

On the ASX, futures point to a higher open despite the geopolitical overhang, with tech stocks lifting Wall Street overnight. BHP faces a critical test: unions at both its Hay Point coal terminal and Port Hedland iron ore port are mobilising for simultaneous stoppages that could cost $120 million a day. The company’s quarterly production report is due this week, and any operational disruption will be closely watched. Telstra’s CEO will front a Senate inquiry into the national outage — expect more political heat and potential compensation announcements.

Commodity traders should also monitor the Victorian coal shortage that sent wholesale power prices to $19,000/MWh on Wednesday night. The incident underscores the fragility of baseload supply during the energy transition and may reignite debate about gas reservation and coal plant closures.

Energy & Geopolitics

• The US launched extensive airstrikes on Iran after an Iranian attack on a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz set it ablaze; Iran retaliated against targets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE. The Strait remains closed until further notice, threatening global energy supply. Oil prices eased to around $US76 a barrel despite the disruption, as investors assess the risk of a prolonged conflict.
• A coal shortage at Victoria’s Loy Yang A and B plants, caused by unplanned maintenance of a dredging machine, triggered a sharp spike in wholesale electricity prices to $19,000 per megawatt-hour on Wednesday night, highlighting the system’s reliance on coal during the renewable transition.
• APLNG (Origin Energy) told the Albanese government it will not support a gas reservation scheme that gives favourable treatment to Santos’ GLNG venture, arguing the scheme must impose equal obligations on all three Queensland LNG exporters and include penalties for non-compliance. Santos separately slammed the proposed mandate as a “new tax” that will deter investment and create future supply shortages.
• Comet Ridge plans to exploit unintended consequences of the gas reservation scheme for its Mahalo project, targeting a final investment decision by March 2027 and first production in late 2028 or early 2029, but faces funding risks and regulatory uncertainty.
• Zen Energy, chaired by Ross Garnaut, entered voluntary administration on July 3 after months under secretive safe harbour provisions; the Australian Energy Market Operator transferred its retail customers to AGL and Origin Energy.
• Allegro Funds merged its New Zealand fuel retailer Gull with family-owned NPD to form NPD Gull, with an enterprise value over NZ$1 billion, creating a potential acquisition target for larger international players.
• Australia and India deepened their mining and energy partnership, with a joint statement from Prime Ministers Albanese and Modi emphasising cooperation on uranium exports, coal, renewables and critical minerals supply chains.

Iron Ore & Steel

• BHP faces union pressure at its Hay Point coal terminal in Queensland after the Fair Work Commission ordered it to bargain with supervisors, who are critical to operations. Separately, unions at Port Hedland have notified a strike that could cost BHP $120 million per day, raising the prospect of simultaneous stoppages at both coal and iron ore operations.
• Two GFG Alliance-owned companies in Whyalla — Whyalla Ports and Ferretti International — have been forced into liquidation, leaving workers, particularly migrant workers, fearing they will not receive owed entitlements. Ferretti International owes over $2 million to its 100-strong workforce.

Copper, Gold & Base Metals

• Larvotto Resources confirmed high-grade copper mineralisation at the Blockade mine near Mount Isa, with drilling results including 31m at 1.16% copper from 63m. The company plans a maiden resource estimate and scoping study, leveraging the granted mining lease to fast-track development and potentially anchor a regional hub-and-spoke copper operation near Glencore’s Mt Isa smelter.
• Matsa Resources reported high-grade gold intersections from diamond drilling at the Fortitude North prospect in Western Australia, extending the Fortitude shear corridor. Ark Mines secured a new exploration permit for its Jackson fluorite project in Queensland, and Iltani Resources reported further high-grade silver-indium mineralisation from infill drilling at the Orient West prospect in Queensland.
• Sunrise Energy Metals is targeting a final investment decision on its Syerston scandium project in NSW by September 2025, with a base case of 60 tonnes per annum and a concept study underway to triple capacity to 180 tonnes. Demand is growing from AI data centres (solid oxide fuel cells) and US defence contractors. The company ended the quarter with $115.4 million in cash after raising ~$116 million.
• Weir Group secured a contract to supply the crushing circuit for Brightstar Resources’ Laverton processing plant in Western Australia, supporting the Goldfields gold project. The order includes Weir’s upgraded ENDURON ET series jaw crusher and EC series cone crusher, along with WARMAN pumps and CAVEX hydrocyclones. Brightstar targets first gold production by mid-2027.

Macro & Policy

• The RBA is bracing for rising defaults in the private credit sector, particularly due to heavy concentration in real estate and construction loans. Internal documents reveal fears that a severe stress event in offshore private credit markets could spill over into Australia, and that opaque investment structures limit regulatory oversight. Default rates are projected to increase structurally through 2026.
• House prices are falling in Sydney and Melbourne (down 11% and 13% annually, respectively), but economists say a 45% drop would be needed for median incomes to match median prices. Auction clearance rates bounced to 54.8% after three weeks below 50%, but the market remains weak due to interest rate hikes, global instability and property tax changes.
• The Australian National Audit Office warns the ATO may never recover half of the $100 billion tax debt, with small businesses accounting for 66% of collectable debt. The report criticises the ATO’s lack of specific small business strategies and performance targets.
• Labor’s proposed 30% tax on discretionary trusts could cost the not-for-profit sector $510 million in the first year and over $690 million by 2033 if exemptions are not made. Treasury is seeking input on carve-outs after previous backdowns on related measures.
• A group of technology executives wrote to Treasurer Jim Chalmers warning that proposed capital gains tax concessions for start-ups would discourage investment and innovation, potentially driving founders and investors offshore. The concessions are seen as insufficient compared to international regimes like the US QSBS.
• The Australian Department of Employment and Workplace Relations’ first AI and Employment in Australia report found no evidence of broad AI-driven labour market upheaval, with unemployment at 4.4% and employment in AI-exposed occupations growing 5.6% since November 2022.