Daily Overview: 5 August 2026

Iron ore is teetering on the edge after the Radiant Group fake invoice scandal compounded already fragile sentiment. Today's Chinese RatingDog Services PMI (11:45 AEST, forecast 53.7 vs 54.1) will be a key test — a miss below 53.7 would add to demand fears and could push iron ore further towards $90/t. Oil's sharp 4.8% drop on US-Iran peace hopes looks overdone given the Pentagon is still crowdsourcing war ideas; watch for a bounce if tonight's EIA crude stocks show a smaller build than the API's surprise 2.69M barrel increase. US ADP employment (22:15 AEST, forecast 90K vs 98K) and ISM Services PMI (00:00 AEST, forecast 54.5 vs 54.0) will set the tone for the dollar and risk appetite — a hot ISM could pressure gold, while a soft ADP might support the AUD. Fed Cook speaks at 06:05 AEST; any dovish lean would be a tailwind for miners.

International

Economic Releases

• US factory orders fell 0.3% in June, missing consensus for a 0.2% rise, pointing to weakening manufacturing demand.
• API crude oil stocks rose 2.69 million barrels, defying expectations for a 2 million barrel draw, adding to pressure on oil prices.
• Canadian trade surplus widened to C$3.86B, beating the C$3.0B consensus, and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.5, well above the 50.2 forecast.

Iron Ore & Steel

• Iron ore prices fell 1.7% to $93.70/t, a one-year low, after Radiant Group, a major physical trader, was accused of providing fake invoices, exacerbating already fragile sentiment from softening Chinese demand and rising supply from Australia, Brazil, and Rio Tinto's Simandou project. Short positions against major miners have built to nearly $12 billion.
• Larvotto Resources said antimony prices must double to at least $50,000/t and have a guaranteed floor price before it proceeds with a $150 million smelter in NSW, highlighting the challenges of competing with Chinese producers despite surging demand after China's export curbs.

Oil & Energy

• Oil prices slid sharply, with Brent crude dropping 4.8% to $US83.75/bbl, after Donald Trump backed down on attack threats against Iran and Iran and Oman held talks on the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes of de-escalation. However, the Pentagon is crowdsourcing ideas from soldiers for unconventional ways to pressure Iran, suggesting the threat is not fully resolved.
• Australia's $7.5 billion fuel subsidy scheme has led to a domestic supply glut, with taxpayer-funded diesel ships forced to anchor off the coast for months due to insufficient storage, distorting the wholesale market and causing profit margins for non-subsidised importers to fall near zero.
• The Albanese government will expand the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) to include solar systems up to 1MW on commercial and industrial rooftops, cutting installation costs by about 20% and unlocking up to 63.3GW of untapped capacity.

Gold & Precious Metals

• Historically high gold prices have triggered a rush among WA gold miners to expand production, leading to unprecedented demand for skilled labour and construction materials, wage increases of up to 7%, and cost overruns of 10-15% for projects like Ramelius Resources' Mount Magnet and Evolution Mining's Mungari mill upgrade.
• Brightstar Resources reported a 305.4m gold intercept at 1.82 g/t from deep drilling at its Sandstone project in WA, revealing a substantially wider tonalite intrusion than previously interpreted, with further drilling and an updated resource estimate planned.
• Solstice Minerals reported multiple wide copper-gold intercepts from RC drilling at its Nanadie project in WA, including 51m at 1.03% Cu and 0.29 g/t Au, extending mineralisation beyond the current resource boundary.

Critical Minerals & Lithium

• The US International Trade Commission imposed additional tariffs of about 40% on Australian silicon metal supplier Simcoa, citing material injury to US industry, forcing Simcoa to exit the US market and calling into question the reliability of the US as a trade partner under the critical minerals agreement.
• Vulcan Energy's Lionheart lithium project in Germany's Upper Rhine Valley was highlighted as significant for Europe's energy and critical raw material resilience, with over $3 billion in backing from multiple international agencies.
• WA-listed companies surged to a record combined market capitalisation of $494 billion in FY26, up 36%, driven by a commodities surge with gold performing strongly and lithium recovering due to growing EV demand. Major gainers included PLS Group (up 277%), Liontown Resources (215%), and Mineral Resources (190%).