Daily Overview: 10 November 2026

US October CPI lands tonight at 11:30pm and it is the only number that matters today. Consensus is for headline inflation of 0.3% month-on-month, down from 0.6%, and core at 0.2% from 0.3% — a forecast that assumes the energy shock from the Iran war is washing out of the index. If it doesn't, expect another leg up in bond yields, more pain for rate-sensitive equities and a fresh test of the "rates are peaking" trade that has underpinned the gold rally. Four Fed speakers — Waller, Logan, Bowman and Schmid — are out either side of the print, and the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook at 3am will be read closely for how the agency is modelling crude after last week's 16% slide.

China's October trade data at 1pm is the other scheduled event worth clearing the diary for. Exports are forecast to slow to 33.5% year-on-year from 36.3%, imports to hold around 32%, and the trade surplus to narrow to $US125.8 billion from $US133.5 billion. Yesterday's PPI print — 5.7% against 5.3% expected — was the strongest reflation signal out of Beijing in some time, and a firm import number would reinforce the view that Chinese industrial demand, not just Chinese pricing power, is strengthening. That matters for iron ore, copper and the whole bulk complex.

Closer to home, NAB business confidence at 10:30am is forecast at -14, barely improved on -13, and Westpac consumer confidence is tipped to fall another 2.6%. Both sit awkwardly alongside the RBA's insistence that inflation remains unchecked and its fifth rate rise of the year. On the corporate front, watch for follow-through on the NextDC stake grab by Goodman and Digital Realty — the board has had a weekend to consider what a 9.9% blocking stake from two of the world's biggest data centre developers actually means — and for further fallout from the Nvidia governance scandal ahead of its 18 November earnings.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• China's PPI accelerated to 5.7% year-on-year in October, beating the 5.3% consensus and up from 5.0% — the clearest sign yet that factory-gate deflation has flipped into reflation.
• Chinese CPI slowed to 0.7% YoY against 0.8% expected, with prices flat month-on-month versus a 0.2% forecast, so the consumer side remains soft even as producer prices run hot.
• German exports rose 2% MoM against 0.5% expected, but the trade surplus of €15.6 billion missed the €19.2 billion consensus — a mixed read on Europe's industrial engine.
• Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin and BoE Governor Bailey were all on the wires, with no policy signal worth trading off.

Gold & Mining Operations

• Northern Star Resources produced just 15,300oz from 766,000t at KCGM in October as mill motor control faults hit plant availability, leaving the expanded operation tracking the bottom of its 550,000–650,000oz FY27 guidance; group guidance of 1.5–1.65Moz is unchanged and weighted to the second half. Hemi secured primary federal and state environmental approvals, with the 18 November AGM the next checkpoint.
• Rox Resources fired its first production stope at United North, part of the Youanmi gold mine, after a record 647m of development in October; first gold is targeted for mid-2027 with an aspiration of 150,000ozpa.
• Forrestania Resources lifted its British Hill resource 35% to 286,300oz at 1.58 g/t, with indicated ounces up 45%, and signed a binding ore purchase agreement with Dundas Minerals for up to 750,000t; first ore at Edna May is targeted for December 2026.
• Waratah Minerals is already extending its maiden 3.1Moz Spur and Consols resource, with new holes returning 170.6m at 0.61 g/t and 157m at 0.57 g/t; 12 rigs are turning with about 50,000m planned over six months.
• Investigator Silver reported intersections of up to 2,662 g/t silver at its Paris project in South Australia, feeding a resource update in 2027.
• Mineral Resources is defending a Federal Court sexual harassment claim from a former employee alleging a three-year campaign by a former leader and a failure to properly investigate; the company denies the claims.
• Janus Henderson's Darko Kuzmanovic is positioning for an industrial revival beyond AI, favouring copper (Freeport-McMoRan, BHP, Glencore) and uranium (NexGen, Paladin) on supply tightness and a US nuclear build-out.

Energy, Data Centres & AI

• Goodman Group and Digital Realty took a 9.9% stake in NextDC at an average $9.22 through Ackland Investments, capitalising on the M3 Melbourne delay; NextDC closed up 5.6% at $10.40 and said it has received no formal takeover proposal. Any control move needs ACCC and FIRB clearance, and a remuneration protest looms at the 20 November AGM.
• The Firmus Technologies float collapse is getting messier: Morgans staff and clients held more than $560 million of stock that would have been worth $3.6 billion at the mooted $44 billion valuation, and ASIC is examining what investors were told during the book-build. The company will now raise privately, with Nvidia among existing backers, and has flagged a possible Nasdaq listing.
• Data centre social licence is deteriorating fast. The Conservation Council ACT wants a moratorium until national rules are set, SA Premier Peter Malinauskas called big tech's energy expectations "crazy stuff", and the Albanese government is exploring bans on data centres near homes — after Goodman and AirTrunk already pulled projects.
• Snowy Hydro chief Dennis Barnes conceded Snowy 2.0 would be "toast" without government ownership, with S&P warning the credit rating would be sub-investment grade without Canberra's backing; costs have blown out from $2 billion to $25 billion.
• The coal decarbonisation fund LETA is on life support after members including BHP, Glencore, Whitehaven and Yancoal set contributions at zero for a third straight year, with its 10-year funding agreement expiring in June.
• Thermal coal is doing fine without it: top-quality NSW coal hit $US151.41/t on 30 October, a 27-month high, as the IEA forecast record global demand again in 2026. Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie used the moment to argue for keeping coal in the grid and lifting the federal nuclear ban to power AI.
• Macquarie Asset Management's Ani Satchcroft named data registries and supply chain technology as the next digital infrastructure growth areas, while Telstra's Steven Worrall said Australia's 1.5–2GW of data centre capacity could reach 15GW within a decade.

Markets, Deals & Policy

• ANZ posted a 31% rise in full-year cash profit to $7.59 billion but lifted collective provisions by $108 million to $4.53 billion, holding $2.1 billion above its base-case scenario; net interest margin was flat at 1.53% and the shares fell 1.4%.
• Nvidia's board has launched an investigation into whether CEO Jensen Huang was targeted by a Chinese espionage operation after he admitted an affair with an executive at chip buyer Megaspeed; short seller Culper Research flagged the relationship in May. Nvidia reports on 18 November with the stock down about 20% in a month.
• The US midterm wipeout is reshaping commodity and AI assumptions: the Nasdaq 100 shed $US2.3 trillion in its worst single day, oil fell 16% to Brent $US97 on hopes of an end to the Iran war, and roughly 125 winning candidates opposed data centres, with 40 of 41 local ballot measures rejecting new AI capacity — a potential opening for Australia.
• Australian beef exporters are stockpiling tens of thousands of tonnes in Chinese bonded warehouses ahead of the 1 January quota reset, with some routing containers via Panama and Rotterdam to delay arrival; the 205,000t tariff-free allocation ran out on 20 June and the 55% tariff now applies.
• Rising steel, concrete and labour costs are delaying infrastructure and inflating budgets — Port of Newcastle's chief executive said an 18-month delay doubled the cost of a recent expansion — with the RBA's fifth rate rise this year compounding the squeeze.
• Treasury secretary Jenny Wilkinson said the department has shifted its advice towards economic resilience, citing weaponised economic dependencies, uncertain access to frontier AI models and globally rising inflation.
• Ashurst expects fiercer M&A auctions in 2027 even as completed Australian deal value fell 61% to $25.7 billion in H1 2026; resources accounted for 38 deals worth about $2.5 billion, with gold the dominant target — Gold Fields' $39 billion tilt at Northern Star and OceanaGold's scheme the headline examples.
• Blackwattle Investment Partners is acquiring Quest Asset Partners and its five-person investment team, adding scale to its large-cap and long-short quality funds, while Lendlease has six weeks to sell its Milano Santa Giulia North stake or fund about $160 million of obligations in 1H FY27.
• RBA chief economist Sarah Hunter said AI should be broadly neutral for inflation over the long run, even as the bank's data centre investment expectations rose tenfold in three years, and ASIC issued interim stop orders against private credit firm Angas Securities over disclosure of its exposure to the collapsed Bathla Group.