Daily Overview: 17 September 2026

The Bank of England decision headlines today's offshore calendar, with rates expected to hold at 3.75% on a 6-3 vote split. That's a non-event for commodity markets, but the accompanying minutes may offer clues on the pace of future easing — worth watching for GBP and broader risk sentiment.

More relevant for resources is tonight's US housing data. Housing starts are forecast to rebound 9.0% after last month's sharp 12.4% contraction, with building permits expected to dip slightly. A strong print would signal resilience in US construction demand — a modest positive for base metals. Initial jobless claims (consensus 208K) and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (forecast 37, down from 47.4) will also test the US growth narrative.

Locally, the iron ore story remains the one to watch. Prices have slipped below $100/t and the PBOC's leaked criticism of the Platts index underscores Beijing's campaign to squeeze Australian miners. With China's property downturn unresolved and supply rising from Guinea, expect further pressure on the majors. Meanwhile, the RBA rate debate intensifies — bond markets are pricing a cash rate above 5% by mid-2027, and today's commentary from economists will likely keep that theme alive.

International

Economic Releases

• US retail sales smashed expectations, rising 1.2% month-on-month against a 0.8% consensus, with the control group up 1.4% versus 0.4% expected — pointing to resilient US consumer demand despite elevated rates.
• The Fed held rates at 4.00% as widely expected, but the 10-year Treasury yield topping 5.03% — a 19-year high — signals markets see inflation persistence and further tightening ahead.
• US business inventories rose 0.8% against a 0.3% consensus, while the NAHB housing market index fell to 32 from 35, missing the 34 forecast — housing sentiment is deteriorating even as retail spending holds up.
• Euro area industrial production contracted 0.1% month-on-month, better than the -0.2% consensus, offering a rare upside surprise for the bloc.

AI & Data Centres

• Firmus Technologies is courting investors for a potential ASX IPO seeking up to $7 billion, with a valuation that could exceed $50 billion — the prospectus reveals forecast revenue of $US229.7 million for H1 FY27 but an operating loss of $US80.2 million and negative free cash flow of $US2.5 billion, with Meta named as a cornerstone customer.
• Anthropic has signed its first Australian lease, taking capacity at Zerra DC's $30 billion Western Downs Digital Park in Queensland — a 2.16 GW project expected to start operating next year, with the AI company set to match electricity use with new renewable supply.
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang rejected calls for AI regulation, arguing market forces provide sufficient oversight and dismissing the innovation-versus-safety debate as a "false choice" — aligning with President Trump and drawing a contrast with Anthropic and OpenAI's push for a coordinated slowdown.

Iron Ore & Resources

• Iron ore has fallen below $100/t to around $96, with futures down nearly 5% over the past week — ANZ expects prices to trade between $90 and $95 for the rest of the year as China's property downturn persists and supply from Australia, Brazil, and Guinea ramps up.
• Leaked documents reveal China's central bank criticised the Platts iron ore pricing index as "defective and biased" against Chinese steel mills, shedding light on Beijing's campaign to pressure BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue into adopting alternative pricing methods.
• BHP has revised its climate plan, with diesel consumption now expected to peak around 2035 — seven years later than previously advised — citing delays in battery truck and train adoption, while maintaining its 2030 and 2050 emissions targets.
• Fortescue has lodged an appeal against the record $150.3 million native title compensation award to the Yindjibarndi people, joining appeals from the Yindjibarndi Ngurra Aboriginal Corporation and the WA government.

Macro & Policy

• The RBA is shifting its policy focus from protecting employment to addressing persistent inflation, with bond markets now pricing the cash rate above 5% by mid-2027 — the highest since 2008 — as oil prices near three-year highs.
• Treasurer Jim Chalmers has changed the productivity forecast methodology to avoid a downgrade in the upcoming Intergenerational Report, reverting to a 30-year average that keeps the 1.2% annual growth assumption — a move critics call unrealistically optimistic given recent productivity growth of just 0.3%.
• The Albanese government will announce its immigration policy today, targeting net overseas migration of 245,000 this year and 225,000 thereafter, with measures aimed at visa hoppers and overstayers among international students and temporary skilled workers.
• The federal government has activated Level 3 restrictions under its national fuel security plan, directing agencies to reduce diesel use amid Middle East supply disruptions — Ampol has criticised the 2030 fuel storage deadline as unrealistic and costly.