Daily Overview: 25 August 2026

The RBA meeting minutes and a speech from RBA's Jacobs are the local focus today. With the ACTU having just pulled its inflation expectations survey from the central bank's toolkit, the minutes will be scrutinised for how the board views the inflation outlook without that data point. The Aussie dollar is sitting near a three-month high — the minutes could either extend that run or trigger a pullback if they signal a more dovish stance than the market is pricing.

Overseas, the US consumer confidence print and Case-Shiller home price data will be watched for signs the US consumer is cracking under higher rates. The API crude inventory report tonight is also worth noting — a build of 1.9M barrels is forecast after last week's drawdown, but with Iran threatening to shut the Strait of Hormuz, oil markets are trading on geopolitics rather than inventory data. Any escalation in the US-Iran sanctions war will dominate commodity prices today.

The Ifo Business Climate reading out of Germany is a useful gauge of European industrial sentiment — consensus is for a slight improvement to 87.2, but a miss would add to the global growth concerns that are already weighing on base metals.

Australia

International

Macro & Policy

• The ACTU has withdrawn its long-running inflation expectations survey from the RBA's data suite, a move that will complicate the central bank's rate deliberations and has been widely criticised as an attempt to suppress unfavourable data.
• Prime Minister Albanese has guaranteed WA's GST floor of 75 cents will remain untouched while he is PM, despite a Productivity Commission report calling the 2018 deal a costly mistake and recommending reform.
• The federal government will legislate to override Queensland's opposition to renewable energy requirements for AI data centres, setting up a national cabinet showdown with Premier David Crisafulli.
• KPMG Australia is cutting 5% of its workforce and 13% of partner pay after a document-misuse scandal and falling consulting demand, with revenue down 1% to $2.1 billion.
• NAB forecasts Australian house prices will fall about 7% peak-to-trough, with Sydney and Melbourne hit hardest, citing tax changes and three rate rises this year.

Lithium & Battery Minerals

• PLS reinstated its dividend for the first time since 2023 after record annual production of 879,543 tonnes of spodumene concentrate, with underlying earnings up elevenfold to $1.14 billion and FY27 production guided to 1.03–1.10 million tonnes.
• The lithium price recovery saw 6% spodumene sell at $US2,350 per tonne, up from $US580 in June 2025, with PLS receiving $2,164 per tonne in FY26 — more than double the prior year.

Gold & Miners

• Alkane Resources discovered a new high-grade zone at its Costerfield gold-antimony operation in Victoria, with results including 0.61m at 580.9 g/t gold and 24% antimony.
• Forrestania Resources reported high-grade gold intersections at British Hill in WA, including 29m at 3.91 g/t, supporting a 131% increase in the JORC resource to 126,290 ounces.
• L1 Group is raising up to $500 million for its L1 Gold Fund, which returned 159.3% net in 2025, with eight brokers hired for the placement and entitlement offer.
• Tungsten Mining appointed Cutfield Freeman to develop a funding strategy for its Watershed project in Far North Queensland, targeting a final investment decision next month and first production in the first half of 2027.
• Rio Tinto's Bell Bay Aluminium smelter in Tasmania faces a one-week deadline for a new power deal with Hydro Tasmania, with industry leaders urging governments to secure the plant's future.
• Woodside's Browse gas project oil spill plan is under fire, with opponents accusing the company of understating spill risks ahead of a federal approval decision due by year-end.
• The US has threatened Iran with what it calls the "greatest financial offensive ever marshalled," while Iran has vowed to shut down all oil exports from the Gulf — threatening the Strait of Hormuz and global fuel prices.