Daily Overview: 26 October 2026

Oil is the number that matters this morning. Brent closed at $US117 — its highest since April — after Iran-backed Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure revived supply fears, and ASX 200 futures point to a 43-point fall at the open. For resources readers the transmission is direct: diesel is already adding roughly US$1.40 per wet metric tonne to Fortescue's hematite C1 costs, and every further leg up in crude tightens the squeeze on margins across the Pilbara and the Goldfields. Watch Woodside, Santos and the fuel-exposed contractors, and watch whether Tehran's rhetoric on the Strait of Hormuz escalates further.

The second theme is the AI infrastructure unwind, and this week's US earnings are the referendum on it. NextDC lost 39 per cent last week after power constraints delayed its West Footscray expansion, Firmus Technologies pulled its $44 billion ASX listing, and Meta's upward revision of capex to US$135–145 billion sent its shares down 7 per cent. Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Intel, SK Hynix and Samsung all report in the coming days; locally, watch Megaport — banks are canvassing a $700 million to $1 billion raise — along with Maas Group, SKS Technologies and the electrical contractors that have been sold off hard. The debt market is the tell: NextDC bonds yielded 10.4 per cent late Friday and CoreWeave's reached 15 per cent.

Today's calendar is second-tier but worth noting. Germany's Ifo business climate index at 19:00 AEDT is forecast at 89.5 against 89.9 previously, a further softening in Europe's industrial engine; the UK's CBI distributive trades reading at 21:00 is expected at -50 versus -47; and the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 22:30 is forecast at -0.1 from -0.04. The one that matters most for commodities is the Dallas Fed manufacturing index at 00:30, forecast at 7 against 9.8 — still expansionary, but the wrong direction. The bigger event risk sits later in the week: Australia's third-quarter CPI, where headline inflation is expected at 4.2 per cent and trimmed mean at 3.6 per cent, ahead of the RBA's 2–3 November meeting where markets now price a greater than 60 per cent chance of a hike to 4.85 per cent. Fortescue's unresolved negotiations with China Mineral Resources Group also bear watching — inventories are building and the company has flagged possible production adjustments.

International

Macro & Markets

• Brent crude hit $US117, its highest since April, as Iran-backed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia stoked supply concerns; the S&P 500 fell 0.4 per cent, the Dow dropped 591 points and ASX 200 futures point to a 43-point fall.
• The AI infrastructure trade cracked: NextDC shed 39 per cent over the week on power-related delays to its West Footscray expansion, Firmus Technologies abandoned its $44 billion ASX listing, and Meta's revised US$135–145 billion capex guidance sent its shares down 7 per cent and its credit default swaps to record highs.
• RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser said the inflation outlook had "materially worsened" and warned expectations may be shifting to 3–3.5 per cent; markets now price a greater than 60 per cent chance of a quarter-point hike to 4.85 per cent on 3 November, with Q3 CPI due this week.
• NAB will cut 2,500–3,200 roles, about 6.5 per cent of its workforce, with 1,500 gone by 16 December and a further 1,000 in early 2027; CEO Andrew Irvine blamed a softening economy, and Morgan Stanley estimates up to $450 million in annual savings.
• Treasurer Jim Chalmers lifted the cap on bank covered bond issuance from 8 to 12 per cent of Australian assets as part of a $780 million red-tape package, while flagging softer growth and slightly higher unemployment in December's mid-year update.
• Private credit stress deepened: Apollo-backed MaxCap cut up to a third of its staff, CVS Lane extended redemption freezes across $1.07 billion of property funds, and US high-yield spreads hit a 17-month high with the year's biggest cluster of pulled deals.
• National auction clearance fell to 48.4 per cent, the third sub-50 per cent week in four, as ANZ lifted its peak cash rate forecast to 4.85 per cent and deepened its forecast national house price decline to 6.2 per cent this year.
• Short positions across the S&P/ASX 300 approached $70 billion — nearly triple pandemic-era levels — with $15 billion bet against the big four banks on slowing credit growth and Labor's negative gearing and CGT changes.

Iron Ore, Bauxite & Steel

• Fortescue shipped 46.8Mt in the September quarter but sold only 42.9Mt as negotiations with China Mineral Resources Group dragged on; it expects inventories to build a further 4–5Mt in October and warned of possible production adjustments if no deal is reached by end-2026. Hematite C1 costs rose 13 per cent quarter-on-quarter to US$21.98/wmt, with diesel adding about US$1.40/wmt.
• Rio Tinto will spend about $2.7 billion ($US1.9 billion) on the Kangwinan bauxite project in Cape York, adding 20Mtpa of capacity, lifting Weipa from 38Mtpa to 44Mtpa and offsetting the planned 2029 closure of Gove; first production is targeted for 2029.
• Matt Latimore's M Resources plans to bring Indonesia's Widjaja family in as a minority partner in its bid for the Whyalla steelworks, competing with India's Jindal Steel International; KordaMentha has drawn a further $87 million, taking South Australia's bill to $1.09 billion.
• Backers of an $850 million green steel plant near Collie in WA secured an agreement with BHP for surplus renewable energy, targeting operation by 2029 with $9.8 million already committed by the state government.

Copper, Gold & Battery Metals

• Austral Resources intersected 15m at 4.59 per cent copper and 1.16 g/t gold from 40m at the Waterhole prospect at Cameron River in north-west Queensland, with 25 of 32 RC holes returning significant copper across six prospects.
• AIC Mines posted record quarterly net mine cash flow of $33.4 million at Eloise, with the expanded plant ramping from 725,000tpa to 1.1Mtpa and the first stope fired at Jericho ahead of schedule; production missed guidance on delayed access to high-grade material.
• Aeris Resources lifted contained gold at Golden Plateau by 220 per cent to about 200,000oz (3Mt at 2.1 g/t gold and 8 g/t silver) and will drill a further 15,000m in FY27.
• Black Cat Syndicate produced 19,153oz in the September quarter, sold 18,000oz at $6,065/oz for $39.4 million in operating cash flow, and reaffirmed FY27 guidance of 80,000–90,000oz.
• Waratah Minerals returned 83m at 1.27 g/t gold from 6m at Goldenclad, including 42m at 2.23 g/t, extending the Spur corridor in NSW.
• McMillan Shakespeare reported a record $106 million profit, up 11.4 per cent, with battery electric vehicles accounting for 57 per cent of new novated leases — a useful read on Australian EV uptake.

Energy & Infrastructure

• PAG's Charlie Reid is pursuing a stake in Akaysha Energy, owner of the 850MW Waratah Super Battery, in a deal that could value the BlackRock-backed platform above $3 billion.
• Apollo and GIC joined seven known bidders for $7 billion of Rio Tinto's Pilbara and Canadian power infrastructure, with a shortlist expected within a fortnight.
• Independent satellite monitoring detected persistent methane plumes above Chevron's Gorgon LNG plant averaging about 7.8 tonnes an hour in August; the UN warned Chevron and the WA government is investigating what regulatory measures may be required.
• The Greens will demand $350 million a year in fossil fuel R&D tax credits be stripped from Chevron, Woodside and Shell before backing Labor's R&D overhaul, leaving Chalmers dependent on their Senate votes.
• Wholesale electricity prices in the main grid fell to among the lowest in the developed world in the first nine months of 2026, according to Rystad, even as Snowy 2.0's cost blowout — now more than 10 times the 2017 estimate — drew calls for better infrastructure planning.
• Western Sydney International Airport opened to passengers on Sunday with Jetstar JQ362 to the Gold Coast, but the metro link is delayed to at least 2027 and the absence of a fuel pipeline will require diesel tanker deliveries.
• PNG's first cement plant, backed by Gerry Harvey and Darren Lockyer through ASX-listed Pacific Lime and Cement, is targeting quicklime production by March–April and a $400 million cement plant online by end-2028.