Today's Useless Fact
Marilyn Monroe had six toes.
Daily Overview: 10 September 2026
published: 2026-09-10
The Day Ahead
All eyes turn to the European Central Bank tonight, with the rate decision due at 22:15 AEST. Consensus points to a 25-basis-point cut to the deposit facility rate (to 2.25%), but the market is pricing a hold — a cut would be a dovish surprise that could lift the euro and weigh on the USD, with knock-on effects for the AUD and dollar-denominated commodities. Lagarde's press conference at 22:45 will be the real market mover.
US PPI data at 22:30 is the other key release — the consensus of 0.4% month-on-month (up from 0% previously) will reinforce the inflation narrative that has been driving bond yields higher and equities lower. With Brent crude pushing above $99 a barrel on Middle East tensions, any upside surprise in producer prices will only add to the hawkish Fed repricing. Initial jobless claims (consensus 205K) will be secondary but worth watching for labour market signals.
Locally, the RBA's hawkish rhetoric continues to reverberate — money markets now price a 73% chance of a September hike. The AUD is at a four-month high, and with the government's softened gas reservation plan set for release today, expect more political heat on energy policy. Santos CEO Kevin Gallagher's call for commercial-terms gas reservation rather than a "must sell" rule will be a key talking point.
Currency Movements
| Pair | Price | 24hr Change | 7-Day Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | 0.7228 | +0.0015 (+0.21%) | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1640 | +0.0023 (+0.20%) | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3547 | +0.0017 (+0.13%) | |
| USD/JPY | 153.56 | -0.3500 (-0.23%) | |
| USD/CAD | 1.3773 | -0.0023 (-0.17%) | |
| USD/CHF | 0.8090 | -0.0018 (-0.22%) | |
| NZD/USD | 0.5850 | +0.0006 (+0.10%) |
Economic Calendar
International
| Time | Country | Event | Previous | Consensus | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 September | |||||
| 22:15 | EA | Deposit Facility Rate | 2.25% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| 22:15 | EA | ECB Interest Rate Decision | 2.4% | 2.65% | 2.65% |
| 22:30 | US | PPI MoM | 0% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 22:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 22:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 206K | 205K | 209.0K |
| 22:45 | EA | ECB Press Conference | |||
| 11 September | |||||
| 00:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.06M | 3.98M | 4.05M |
| 00:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -1.7% | -0.2% | |
| 02:00 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -4.45M | ||
| 02:00 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -1.173M | ||
| 16:00 | GB | GDP MoM | 0.3% | 0% | 0.1% |
| 22:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 22:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| 22:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 22:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| 12 September | |||||
| 00:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel | 51.7 | 51 | 51.5 |
| 14 September | |||||
| 22:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 3% | 3.0% | |
| 15 September | |||||
| 12:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 4.5% | 5.0% | |
| 12:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 16:00 | GB | Unemployment Rate | 4.9% | 5.0% | |
| 19:00 | DE | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | 34.2 | 21 | |
| 16 September | |||||
| 09:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | ¥-634.5B | ||
| 16:00 | GB | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9% | 3.1% | |
| 22:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6% | 0.3% | |
| 17 September | |||||
| 04:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75% | 4% | |
| 04:00 | US | FOMC Economic Projections | |||
| 04:30 | US | Fed Press Conference | |||
| 21:00 | GB | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75% | 3.75% | |
| 22:30 | US | Building Permits Prel | 1.433M | 1.41M | |
| 22:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.239M | 1.35M | |
| High impact * Revised value | |||||
Yesterday's Key Stories
Economic Releases
- China's September inflation came in at 0.8% year-on-year, matching consensus and up from 0.5% previously, while PPI rose 3.8% (vs 3.5% prior) — the continued PPI strength signals firming industrial demand, supportive for base metals and bulk commodities.
- US API crude oil stocks fell 0.3 million barrels, a smaller draw than the 1.3 million consensus, but with Brent above $99 on Middle East supply risks, the market is looking past inventory data to geopolitical headlines.
Energy & Gas
- The Albanese government has softened its gas reservation policy, retreating from a fixed 20% domestic reservation to an "up to 20%" requirement, with the start date delayed six months to January 1, 2028 — a win for producers like Santos and a response to foreign government and international gas company concerns.
- Santos CEO Kevin Gallagher is set to argue for gas reservation rules that require gas to be offered on commercial terms rather than a "must sell" rule, warning against resource nationalism while supporting domestic reservation to encourage Beetaloo Basin investment.
- Workers at Yancoal's Premier Coal mine in WA voted to take protected industrial action, with the dispute centred on pay and redundancy clarity as coal-fired power plants are scheduled to close by 2030 — the state government says stockpiled coal will prevent grid disruption.
Gold & Mining
- Rox Resources lifted ore reserves at its Youanmi Gold Project in WA by 8% to 727,000 ounces, with the reserve calculated at a conservative $3,200/oz gold price versus spot of about $6,100/oz — the company is targeting 150,000ozpa production.
- Astral Resources reported high-grade gold intercepts at Theia within its Mandilla project near Kalgoorlie, including 1m at 219g/t gold, reinforcing the Stage 1 open-pit case ahead of a definitive feasibility study.
- Rio Tinto agreed to acquire Glencore and Mitsubishi Development's Aurukun bauxite project in Queensland, expanding its bauxite portfolio to complement its Weipa operations about 200km north.
- Ballymore Resources extended high-grade silver-lead-zinc-indium mineralisation at its Torpy's discovery in North Queensland, with one hole returning 7m at 170g/t silver, 7.60% lead and 3.27% zinc from 44m.
- Black Cat Syndicate appointed mining veteran Chris Stone as acting managing director, effective immediately, while it searches for a permanent replacement.
Property & Finance
- Metrics Credit Partners is struggling to sell the Carter Place residential development site in Sydney's west after developer Australia YMCI defaulted on a $270 million loan, with offers below the loan value — a major test for private credit as construction costs and interest rates bite.
- Bob Ell's Leda Holdings has taken control of major Bathla projects by becoming mortgagee in possession, accelerating the break-up of the failed developer and potentially affecting returns for unsecured creditors.
- Westpac CEO Anthony Miller forecast house prices will rise 3% in 2027 and 8% in 2028 after a 7% bottom-out, urging the government to subsidise construction costs rather than demand-side measures — Westpac reported a 30% fall in first home buyer mortgage applications since the May budget tax changes.
- More than half of Australian homes listed for auction are being converted to private sales before their auction date, with Sydney's conversion rate rising from 24.9% in February to 56.3% in July as sellers lose confidence in a cooling market.
