The Day Ahead
Oil markets remain the dominant story this morning, with Brent holding above $US100 after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers and Trump’s threat of “massive punishment” on Iran. The Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are effectively contested, and Goldman Sachs sees $US120 if disruptions persist. For Australian resources, the immediate risk is to energy costs and shipping insurance, but iron ore and coal exports to Asia are not directly affected by the Red Sea blockade.
Today’s US durable goods orders (10:30pm AEST) are the key data point for commodity demand. The headline is forecast to swing from -4.5% to +1.8%, while ex-transport is expected at 1.0% vs 1.3% prior. A strong print would support the case for resilient industrial demand, but watch for any downside surprise that could reignite recession fears. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (also 10:30pm) is expected to slip to -1 from 0, a marginal deterioration.
On the domestic front, the QME 2026 exhibition in Mackay wrapped up with a focus on automation and workforce mental health, and the NT Mining Cadets Program was announced for 2027 — both signal a sector investing in its future despite macro headwinds. The 12.5% US tariff on Australian exports is now confirmed, but raw materials exemptions mean core mining exports are largely unscathed. Keep an eye on critical minerals, where US demand and existing investment frameworks could create opportunities.
Currency Movements
| Pair | Price | 24hr Change | 7-Day Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | 0.6983 | +0.0000 (+0.00%) | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1377 | -0.0042 (-0.37%) | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3321 | +0.0008 (+0.06%) | |
| USD/JPY | 163.83 | +0.4350 (+0.27%) | |
| USD/CAD | 1.4092 | +0.0000 (+0.00%) | |
| USD/CHF | 0.8177 | +0.0000 (+0.00%) | |
| NZD/USD | 0.5789 | +0.0000 (+0.00%) |
Economic Calendar
International
| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 July | ||||||
| 18:00 | DE | Ifo Business Climate | 85.6 | 86.1 | 85.9 | |
| 20:00 | GB | CBI Distributive Trades | -54 | -45 | -45 | |
| 22:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | -4.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | |
| 22:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 28 July | ||||||
| 00:30 | CA | BoC Market Participants Survey | ||||
| 00:30 | US | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 0 | -1 | ||
| High impact * Revised value | ||||||
Yesterday's Key Stories
Oil & Geopolitics
- Oil prices surged above $US100 a barrel for the first time in two months after Houthi rebels announced a blockade of Saudi oil shipments through the Red Sea, threatening the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Trump threatened “massive punishment” on Iran, and Saudi Arabia launched retaliatory strikes against Houthi positions.
- Trump later paused plans to escalate military strikes against Iran, concerned about depleting Patriot interceptor stockpiles and the risk of a wider war. The US strategic petroleum reserve is at its lowest since 1983.
- Iran flew IRGC commanders to Yemen to widen the conflict, and the broader US-Iran war continues with daily attacks across the Persian Gulf.
Trade & Policy
- The Trump administration confirmed a 12.5% tariff on Australian exports under Section 301, replacing a temporary 10% tariff. Exemptions for raw materials mean iron ore, coal, and gas are largely unaffected, but critical minerals remain a key area to watch.
- Two small US businesses are suing the Trump administration over the new forced labour tariffs, arguing they are predetermined and designed to maintain an unlawful tariff regime.
- The Albanese government scrapped the Climate Active program, which allowed companies to make carbon-neutral claims by purchasing offsets, citing greenwashing concerns and the rise in mandatory climate disclosure.
Mining & Commodities
- Tata Steel and POSCO are challenging the current coking coal pricing system, arguing that the PLV benchmark from BHP’s Peak Downs mine is distorted by outlier trades and fails to reflect market fundamentals. Stakeholders are divided on whether the system needs reform.
- Administrators EY reported that the Liberty Bell Bay manganese smelter in Tasmania failed due to $191 million in intercompany loans and dividends paid to Sanjeev Gupta’s other businesses, with little prospect of recovery. The smelter was likely insolvent since May 2025.
- Sunrise Energy Metals is accelerating studies to expand its Syerston Scandium Project in NSW from 60 tpa to 180 tpa of scandium oxide, driven by predicted growth in global demand and customer desire for supply outside China.
- Forrestania Resources reported high-grade gold intercepts at its British Hill project in WA, including 4m at 7.46 g/t gold, confirming mineralisation extends up-dip and at depth. Astral Resources also reported strong gold results from the Theia deposit at its Mandilla Gold Project.
- The 2026 Queensland Mining & Engineering Exhibition in Mackay attracted over 6,500 attendees and 360 suppliers, with coverage of digital transformation, automation, and workforce mental health. Queensland Minister Dale Last announced a review of the state’s Financial Provisioning Scheme.
- The NT Mining Cadets Program, launching in 2027, will allow Year 10 and 11 students to earn a Certificate II in Workplace Skills (Mining) while still in school, aiming to build a pipeline of skilled workers for gold and rare earths projects.
- NSW coal mining has reduced direct emissions by 30% since 2005, the fastest decline of any sector in the state, and net emissions are down 35% and on track for a 50% cut by 2030.
Today's Useless Fact
The San Francisco Cable cars are the only mobile National Monuments.