Daily Overview: 12 August 2026

All eyes are on the US inflation print at 10:30pm AEST. Consensus expects core CPI to tick up to 0.2% month-on-month from zero, with headline inflation at 3.4% year-on-year — a modest cooling from 3.5%. A hot number will hammer rate cut hopes and pressure the AUD, while a soft print could give commodities a tailwind. The EIA crude oil stocks report at 12:30am AEST is also worth watching; the market is looking for a 0.5M barrel draw after last week's surprise build, and with Hormuz tensions still simmering, any supply disruption narrative will amplify price moves.

Locally, the RBA's hold at 4.35% yesterday was the headline, but Governor Bullock's hawkish tone — warning that further hikes are not off the table — will continue to reverberate. The data centre boom is now a bigger inflationary concern for the RBA than the housing slump, and that tension is not going away. Watch for any follow-through in bank stocks and small caps today as investors digest the implications of a higher-for-longer rate environment.

International

Economic Releases

• The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% as expected, but Governor Bullock's hawkish commentary — warning that further hikes remain possible — whipsawed bond markets and sent a clear signal that inflation at 3.8% remains the central concern.
• NAB Business Confidence held at -6, unchanged from the previous month, pointing to persistently weak business sentiment in Australia.
• US API crude oil stocks showed a massive 9.07M barrel build, far exceeding the consensus forecast of a 0.5M draw, signalling softer demand or higher supply ahead of today's EIA release.
• US Existing Home Sales fell 1.7% month-on-month to 4.06M, slightly below the revised previous reading and consistent with a cooling US housing market.

Macro & Policy

• The RBA's decision to hold rates came with updated forecasts showing inflation returning to the 2-3% target midpoint only by late 2027, while Governor Bullock flagged upside risks from the Middle East oil conflict, energy price shocks, and the AI-driven data centre construction boom — which she said is now a bigger influence on monetary policy than the housing downturn.
• SGH (Seven Group Holdings) reported a 35% rise in profit to $655 million, but shares fell nearly 10% after CEO Ryan Stokes delivered a bleak economic outlook, citing federal tax changes and sovereign risk concerns; the company announced a $500 million buyback and paused its BlueScope Steel takeover pursuit.
• ANZ forecasts Sydney house prices to fall 14.5% peak-to-trough, with capital city declines of 10.6%, as restrictive rates and tax policy changes hit the market; NSW and Queensland are now on the verge of credit rating downgrades due to slumping stamp duty revenue.
• The Minerals Council of Australia is lobbying to extend the 50% capital gains tax discount for junior mineral explorers beyond June 2027, arguing it is critical for new discoveries and supply chain resilience.

Energy & Infrastructure

• Macquarie Asset Management, Anthropic, and GIC have partnered to establish Theseus Infrastructure, a data centre developer anchored by Anthropic, with Macquarie and GIC funding most project equity — the latest sign of the AI infrastructure boom that the RBA says is adding to inflationary pressure.
• Nvidia has partnered with Apollo, Blackstone, BlackRock, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR to mobilise over $500 billion for AI infrastructure, in a deal that underscores the scale of capital being deployed into data centres globally.
• Australia's energy resources sector generated $180 billion in export earnings in 2023-24, about 27% of total exports, according to Geoscience Australia's AECR 2026 report, with exploration spending up 25% to $1.81 billion.
• Australia faces the risk of losing its dominant position in Japan's LNG market as Japanese buyers increasingly sign long-term contracts with US suppliers, driven by US political pressure and frustration with Australian energy policy uncertainty.

Mining & Commodities

• Core Lithium reported high-grade spodumene intersections at its BP33 project, with 34.08m at 2.09% Li2O, extending mineralisation beyond the current resource and confirming grade continuity.
• Austral Resources won the acquisition of Hammer Metals with an $80.7 million offer, adding copper exploration ground in Queensland's Mount Isa district and positioning the combined group as a mid-tier copper producer.
• Tungsten Mining has commenced a major drilling campaign at its Watershed tungsten project in Queensland, comprising 175 RC holes and 75 diamond holes to improve confidence and reduce development risk.
• A PwC report found only 13 of 907 critical minerals projects in Australia have reached Definitive Feasibility Study stage, with 90% still 3-6 years from Final Investment Decision, highlighting a significant gap between ambition and progress.
• Hanwha made a $1.7 billion bid for Austal's US division, while Austal warned of a $175 million impairment from a US Navy contract and expects an annual loss of $113 million; the deal raises sovereign defence concerns given Austal's strategic role for the Australian government.