Daily Overview: 13 October 2026

The RBA's October meeting minutes (10:30 AEDT) are the main domestic event, and they land in an awkward spot for the board. Four hikes have already been delivered in 2026, national home prices have fallen for six straight months and are down about 3.3% from peak, and stamp duty receipts are collapsing — yet inflation is still running above target. Read the minutes for any hint the board is close to a pause, because the AUD and every rate-sensitive sector on the ASX are positioned for one. NAB business confidence for September, out at the same time, is forecast at -9 from -8 — still deep in contraction territory and a reminder that the private sector is not enjoying this tightening cycle.

Oil remains the single biggest macro variable, and it is not cooperating. Brent is hovering near $US105 after a third Houthi missile strike on Riyadh's airport in a week, and Trump's Russian diesel deal is a rounding error against a global diesel market where prices are still more than 80% above pre-Iran-war levels. Watch whether the declared Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire" survives the week — it was breached within hours of the announcement. Three Fed speakers (Waller 17:45, Barkin 03:00, Collins 06:00 AEDT), weekly ADP employment and existing home sales round out a US calendar that matters mostly for the rates channel feeding into bond yields and gold.

On the corporate side, expect positioning ahead of Glencore's ASX CDI debut on Wednesday — the miner wants to place about $5bn of securities over the next year and close a valuation gap to BHP that has persisted since 2001. The Firmus fallout is not finished: Lennox Capital marked its stake up to a $44bn valuation on October 6, watched its unit price fall from $1.88 to $1.476 the next day, and now faces the question of whether it writes the value back down. And keep an eye on South32's Groote Eylandt consultation, where $129m of cost cuts are being sought after costs rose more than 80%.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• India's September CPI jumped to 5.54% year-on-year from 4.83%, overshooting the 5.4% consensus — the only genuine surprise on an otherwise empty calendar. No AU, US, CN or EA data landed yesterday.
• The UK's BRC retail sales monitor and a Fed Hammack speech were scheduled but no actuals were published in the calendar feed.

Energy & Oil

• Oil pushed toward $US105/bbl as Houthi missile strikes on Riyadh's international airport — the third in a week, killing 12 and wounding more than 300 — kept the Strait of Hormuz risk premium firmly in place, even as Middle Eastern crude exports have nearly returned to pre-war levels.
• Trump's Russian diesel deal is offering little relief: US diesel futures fell nearly 5% to $US4.73 a gallon on Friday but remain over 80% higher than before the Iran war, with CBA's Vivek Dhar estimating the initial 300,000-tonne release equals just 150,000 bbl/d, or 3% of global seaborne diesel trade.
• Trump's declared Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire" looked shaky within hours after a Russian drone strike on a power station near Kharkiv; Zelensky said he would only match it if Russia did and offered fresh elections in exchange for a 60-day truce. Ukraine has knocked out as much as 45% of Russian refining capacity by some estimates.
• Virgin Australia told travel agents it is raising fares to offset fuel costs, flagging a $49m increase to a $700m first-half FY27 fuel bill and a 3% seat reduction in the six months to December 31.
• Buru Energy referred its Rafael conventional gas project in WA's Canning Basin to the state EPA, targeting first gas in early 2029 and claiming it could supply 100% of Kimberley demand; environmentalists labelled it a "Trojan horse for fracking," which Buru rejects.
• Critics say the Albanese government's draft gas reservation scheme is riddled with "Santos-sized loopholes" via existing contracts, take-or-pay deals and an "additional gas" test, while China has raised fairness concerns for foreign investors.

Critical Minerals & Exploration

• Arafura Rare Earths expanded its Traxys North America offtake to at least 850 tonnes per annum of NdPr, up from 500 tonnes, over five years — feeding US automotive and defence supply chains and potentially the Trump administration's Project Vault. NdPr is currently $US110/kg, and Hancock Prospecting holds 17.5% of Arafura.
• VHM signed a three-year offtake with Japan's Mitsui for half the heavy metals concentrate from its unbuilt Goschen project in Victoria, up to 65,000 tonnes annually, months after tearing up its original contract with China's Shenghe Resources.
• Austral Resources more than doubled the known copper footprint at McLeod Hill in north-west Queensland, with 12 of 20 holes intersecting mineralisation over more than 1km of strike; the company has $15m for Rocklands expansion studies and an $80.7m bid for Hammer Metals on foot.
• Cyprium Metals established 212 production and monitoring wells and placed about 1.7Mt into leachable inventory at Nifty, with first copper cathode on track for the December quarter.
• Chalice Mining appointed Ross Carroll as independent non-executive chair plus two new directors ahead of Gonneville's development, targeting a final investment decision in the first half of 2028.
• Gold developers advanced on multiple fronts: Astral Resources lifted Spargoville's resource 102% to 281,000oz (group resource now 2.21Moz), Rox Resources hit 39% completion on Youanmi's processing plant with first gold targeted for mid-2027, and Meeka Metals started the Turnberry decline targeting first ore in January 2027.
• South32's GEMCO began consultations over redundancies at Groote Eylandt after costs rose more than 80%, requiring $129m in cuts, with about $100m of new water infrastructure planned over two years subject to approvals.

Corporate & Markets

• Glencore's CDIs begin trading on the ASX on Wednesday, with the miner hoping investors buy about $5bn of the securities over the next year as it targets a valuation gap to BHP and plans to almost double copper production by 2035.
• Firmus Technologies' $44bn IPO collapsed after a lukewarm US reception; Lennox Capital marked its stake up on October 6, lifting its unit price from $1.50 to $1.88, before the fund's NAV fell to $1.476 the next day — a write-down now looks likely.
• NSW stamp duty revenue fell 23% year-on-year in September to $663.7m, the third consecutive month of 20%-plus declines, with UBS warning a 20% fall in stamp duty revenue in 2026-27 would wipe $30bn from state budgets over four years.
• Investor activity is cooling: investor loans fell 9% in the June quarter while owner-occupier loans fell 3%, though loans for new homes rose 24% as demand shifts toward new builds under the May budget's negative gearing changes.
• GQG Partners suffered $US2.3bn of September outflows, taking 2026 withdrawals to $US26.2bn and assets under management $US23.7bn below February's peak despite Rajiv Jain's pivot back into US tech.
• Treasury Wine Estates sold the Rosemount, Ingoldby and Secret Stone brands to the Oatley family, part of CEO Sam Fischer's plan to halve its 76-brand portfolio, while Domino's Pizza Enterprises parted with ANZ chief executive Merrill Pereyra after less than a year.
• The AEMC granted preliminary approval to 14,000 kerbside EV chargers on power poles, with 70% of costs recovered from household power bills — opposed by Tesla, EnergyAustralia and Engie as an "EV tax on electricity bills."