Daily Overview: 29 July 2026

All eyes are on the Australian inflation print at 11:30 AEST this morning. The monthly CPI is expected to tick up to 0.2% month-on-month from -0.7%, while the annual rate is forecast to hold at 4.0% or edge to 4.1%. The RBA's trimmed mean measures are also due — any upside surprise will cement market pricing for a rate hike as early as August, after Governor Bullock's blunt warning yesterday that the board is ready to move. A downside miss, however, could see the ASX rally and the Aussie dollar slip.

Tonight's US Fed decision is a foregone conclusion — rates will stay at 3.75% — but the press conference and dot plot will be scrutinised for any shift in tone. Markets are already pricing in a one-in-four chance of an RBA hike next month, so a hawkish Fed could compound pressure on risk assets.

Oil remains the wild card. Iran's claim of control over the Strait of Hormuz, combined with Treasury's warning that the Middle East war impact is worsening, keeps crude prices elevated. The API reported a surprise crude build of 3.3 million barrels last night, but the EIA data tonight will be the real test. Iron ore is under siege from Chinese centralised buying and rising supply — hedge funds are piling into shorts on the big miners, and the ASX 200 is set to open lower.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• US consumer confidence fell to 90.8 in July (consensus 92.3), the lowest since early 2024, signalling weakening household sentiment.
• US goods trade deficit narrowed to $101.5 billion in June (forecast $99.0B), while wholesale inventories rose 0.3% as expected.
• API crude oil stocks rose 3.296 million barrels, well above the forecast draw of 2.5 million barrels, adding to bearish pressure on oil prices.
• India's industrial production surged 7.3% year-on-year in June (consensus 5.7%), driven by manufacturing output of 7.8%, suggesting robust demand in a key commodity consumer.

Iron Ore & Steel

• Hedge funds have built an $11 billion short position on ASX mining giants, led by Fortescue at a three-year high, as China's state-backed buyer CMRG pushes for lower prices and oversupply grows from Rio's Simandou project and rising output.
• Whyalla steelworks administrator fees have topped $53 million since February, with the sale process dragging on; two bidders remain and the federal government has committed $2.8 billion in bailout funds.
• Whitehaven Coal reported a strong June quarter recovery, lifting managed run-of-mine production to 40.3 million tonnes for FY26, a 3% increase, with net debt of ~$1.3 billion after a deferred acquisition payment.
• Austral Resources paid $51.98 million to terminate the Anthill agreement with Glencore, removing production caps at Mt Kelly and giving full exposure to copper prices ahead of the Rocklands restart in mid-2027.

Gold & Precious Metals

• Newmont's Boddington mine lifted gold production 44% quarter-on-quarter to 160,000 oz, offsetting seismic disruption at Cadia; the company reported record free cash flow of $2.2 billion and maintained full-year guidance of ~5.3 million oz.
• Genesis Minerals posted a record 285,402 oz of gold for FY26 at AISC $2,670/oz, and its merger with Vault Minerals is expected to create a top-20 global producer with ~600,000–700,000 oz annual output.
• IGO reported a strong finish to FY26, with Greenbushes spodumene production up 10% quarter-on-quarter and realised prices up 37%, while the Nova nickel operation exceeded life-of-mine guidance; the company ended the year with a net cash position of $386.5 million.
• Terrain Minerals announced a maiden Inferred Resource of 54,000 oz gold and 156,500 oz silver at its Lightning deposit in WA, with drilling planned for September.
• Medallion Metals reported high-grade gold-copper drilling results at the Gem deposit, including 4.92m at 15.5 g/t gold and 0.9% copper, extending mineralisation at Ravensthorpe.

Macro & Policy

• RBA Governor Michele Bullock warned that Australian living standards will continue to stagnate without productivity growth, and the board is prepared to raise rates again if inflation remains stubborn; markets now see a one-in-four chance of a hike in August.
• Treasury has warned Treasurer Chalmers that the economic risks from the Middle East war are increasing, with oil prices elevated and global buffers weakened, as the government weighs extending the fuel excise discount.
• Iran claims control of the Strait of Hormuz as President Trump considers further strikes, raising the risk of oil supply disruptions; the US is reportedly facing a missile shortage, prompting calls for Australia to boost domestic defence manufacturing under AUKUS.
• The Trump administration imposed 12.5% tariffs on Australia under a new forced-labour rationale, but the article argues this provides certainty and is lower than the previous 'liberation day' tariffs that were ruled unconstitutional.
• NSW Trade Minister blasted the US tariffs as "unwarranted and unfair", citing them as a reason to pursue export diversification away from coal to Japan.
• Ken Henry warned that Australia's climate policy architecture is at risk of collapse, criticising both conservative politicians and environmental groups for undermining the renewable energy transition.