Today's Useless Fact
A lion's roar can be heard from five miles away.
Daily Overview: 16 September 2026
published: 2026-09-16
The Day Ahead
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve tonight. The market has fully priced in a 25bp hike to 4.00% — the first in three years — but the real action will be in the dot plot and Powell's press conference. With US 10-year yields already briefly topping 5% and oil above $105, any hawkish surprise will hit risk assets hard. The AUD is caught between a hawkish RBA (77% odds of a hike) and a nervous global market.
US retail sales data at 22:30 AEST is the other key print — consensus expects a sharp rebound to +0.8% MoM after last month's -0.6% slump. A miss here would compound the stagflation narrative. Watch EIA crude inventories at 00:30 for confirmation of yesterday's surprise 7.14M barrel API build.
The WA Mining Conference kicks off in Perth today — expect plenty of noise around the $8 trillion resource opportunity and the state's policy settings. With oil surging and the Middle East conflict escalating, energy names will be the ones to watch on the ASX.
Currency Movements
| Pair | Price | 24hr Change | 7-Day Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | 0.7130 | -0.0002 (-0.03%) | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1541 | +0.0002 (+0.02%) | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3477 | -0.0005 (-0.04%) | |
| USD/JPY | 154.86 | +0.3520 (+0.23%) | |
| USD/CAD | 1.3903 | +0.0015 (+0.11%) | |
| USD/CHF | 0.8170 | -0.0023 (-0.28%) | |
| NZD/USD | 0.5770 | -0.0002 (-0.03%) |
Economic Calendar
International
| Time | Country | Event | Previous | Consensus | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 September | |||||
| 16:00 | GB | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% |
| 16:00 | GB | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| 16:00 | GB | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 19:00 | EA | Industrial Production MoM | 0% | -0.2% | -0.6% |
| 21:00 | US | MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.85% | ||
| 22:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 229.1K | 240K | 232.0K |
| 22:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 22:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| 22:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 22:30 | US | Retail Sales Control Group MoM | -0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 22:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| 17 September | |||||
| 00:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 00:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 34 |
| 00:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.391M | ||
| 00:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 1.269M | ||
| 03:00 | EA | ECB President Lagarde Speech | |||
| 04:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75% | 4% | 4% |
| 04:00 | US | FOMC Economic Projections | |||
| 04:30 | US | Fed Press Conference | |||
| 06:00 | US | Net Long-term TIC Flows | $172.7B | $146.3B | |
| 21:00 | GB | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75% | 3.75% | 3.75% |
| 22:30 | US | Building Permits Prel | 1.433M | 1.41M | 1.41M |
| 22:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.239M | 1.31M | 1.35M |
| 18 September | |||||
| 09:30 | JP | Inflation Rate YoY | 2% | 2.1% | |
| 13:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1% | 1.25% | 1.25% |
| 16:00 | GB | Retail Sales MoM | -0.5% | -0.2% | -0.1% |
| 23 September | |||||
| 17:30 | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 54.3 | 53.6 | |
| 18:30 | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 51.7 | 51.7 | |
| 18:30 | GB | S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 52.5 | 52.6 | |
| High impact * Revised value | |||||
Yesterday's Key Stories
Economic Releases
- China's industrial production beat expectations at 5.2% YoY (consensus 4.8%), signalling resilience in manufacturing, but retail sales disappointed at 0.4% YoY (consensus 0.8%) — the consumer remains the weak spot.
- US API crude stocks surged 7.14M barrels against expectations of a -1.8M draw, a bearish signal that was overwhelmed by Middle East supply fears pushing oil above $105.
- German wholesale prices jumped 6.8% YoY (consensus 6.2%), adding to the inflation headache ahead of tonight's Fed decision.
- EA ZEW Economic Sentiment tumbled to 25.8 from 31.4, well below the 39.9 consensus — European growth expectations are deteriorating fast.
Macro & Policy
- Leaked ICBC documents reveal Beijing's "China rationale" for mining loans — the bank issued loss-making or marginal loans to Fortescue, BHP, Rio Tinto and Glencore to secure raw material access, including a $2.5 billion Fortescue loan at rates 30% below market. Kevin Rudd called China's dominance in mining "unsurprising."
- Whyalla steelworks' blast furnace is permanently shut, with 600 direct job losses and a potential 2-4 year gap before steelmaking resumes via electric arc furnace. The bailout cost has blown out to $4 million per job, drawing fire from economists.
- Macquarie says an RBA rate hike is "all but certain" — markets pricing 77% odds of a move, with oil-driven inflation adding pressure. The Fed is expected to hike to 4.00% tonight.
- Oil prices surged 4% as Middle East conflict engulfed major supply routes, with analysts warning Brent could hit $US150. US 10-year yields briefly topped 5% for the first time in years.
Mining & Resources
- CME identified an $8 trillion opportunity in WA resources — developing 80% of the resource base could generate $476 billion in royalties and $855 billion in company tax, supporting 864,000 construction jobs.
- Northern Star appointed Mark Cutifani and Peter Rozenauers as independent directors following discussions with Elliott Investment Management, strengthening the board ahead of incoming CEO Suresh Vadnagra.
- Gina Rinehart's Hancock Prospecting took a 13.5% stake in Canada-focused copper company White Cliff for $8.8 million, where her estranged son John Hancock is a director — copper demand for electrification driving the rush.
- EQ Resources will supply 4,000 tonnes of tungsten to the US in a $105 million critical minerals deal, taking a 10% stake in a Nevada processing JV as tungsten prices have risen ten-fold in 18 months.
- CATL predicted sodium-ion batteries will match lithium-ion costs by early next year, potentially pressuring Australia's $10 billion lithium export trade — sodium batteries are better suited for data centres.
- New Hope Group defied a 63% profit slump with a 30-cent final dividend, with managing director Rob Bishop expecting elevated coal prices to persist — NSW thermal coal has rallied 17% in a month to $US148.29/t.
- Cyprium Metals commenced acid leaching at Nifty for the first time since 2009, with first copper cathode now expected in the December 2026 quarter.
- Ramelius awarded Primero the Mt Magnet expansion, adding 3Mtpa of processing capacity as part of its push to become a 500,000-ounce annual gold producer by FY30.
- BHP faces Fair Work arbitration over Pilbara iron ore worker pay disputes at Port Hedland, with unions seeking a fairer deal after a year of unsuccessful bargaining.
