Daily Overview: 25 September 2026

The bond market is the story that won't quit, and it's setting the tone for everything else. Australia's 10-year yield is sitting around 5.4 per cent, up from 4.6 per cent at the start of July, and the move has been brutal for anyone holding duration. A cash rate increase to 4.6 per cent next week is now treated as near-certain, with some desks flagging 5.1 per cent as a live possibility. Watch for any further hawkish commentary from Fed speakers today — Williams (7:15pm AEST), Schmid (11:20pm) and Hammack (4am) are all on the wires — because another leg up in US yields will flow straight through to Australian rates and the dollar.

On the data front, US durable goods orders for August land at 10:30pm AEST and are forecast to fall 0.4 per cent after a 1.1 per cent rise the prior month — a weak print would sharpen the capex-slowdown narrative that sits awkwardly alongside the strong PMI and GDPNow readings that triggered this week's yield spike. The final Michigan consumer sentiment read at midnight AEST is expected at 47.6, down sharply from 51.7 previously, which would underline the squeeze on US households even as business activity accelerates. Germany's GfK consumer confidence at 4pm AEST is forecast at -27.4, unchanged from the prior read — no relief expected in Europe's industrial heartland.

For commodities, copper is the one to watch. BHP's suspension of all operations at Escondida following a worker fatality removes the world's largest copper mine from the supply side for an indefinite period, and with the red metal already up roughly 50 per cent over the past year to around US$14,000 a tonne, the market will be quick to price any hint of a prolonged outage. Diesel is the other live risk: energy analyst Saul Kavonic's warning that a US export ban could push Australian diesel above $4 a litre and force rationing within weeks is not a tail scenario anymore — it's a live policy risk that mining and agriculture need to be scenario-planning for. And keep an eye on the Xi-Trump summit in Washington, where rare earths, AI and trade are all on the table.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.6 per cent in August from 4.5 per cent, missing consensus of 4.5 per cent, even as employment jumped 39,500 — nearly double the 20,000 expected. Full-time employment actually fell 6,300, with all the gains in part-time work, and the participation rate hit 67.1 per cent.
• US initial jobless claims came in at 197,000 versus 201,000 expected, and new home sales surprised at 0.684 million against a 0.62 million consensus — a 6.4 per cent monthly gain that sits oddly against the broader housing slowdown.
• Germany's Ifo Business Climate beat slightly at 89.9 versus 89.0 expected, while Canada's retail sales ex-autos fell 0.7 per cent, worse than the -0.5 per cent forecast.

Copper & Base Metals

• BHP suspended all operational activities at Escondida in Chile, the world's largest copper mine, after an employee was killed during maintenance work. The joint venture with Rio Tinto (30 per cent) and JECO (12.5 per cent) was expected to produce up to 1.1 million tonnes this financial year, down from 1.26 million, and BHP has already flagged global copper output contracting up to 15 per cent.
• AIC Mines secured binding agreements to acquire Materra Metals, owner of the Mt Cuthbert copper project in Queensland, for $120 million — $100 million in scrip and $20 million cash — plus a $70 million placement with Hawke's Point Resource Finance. Mt Cuthbert holds 246,000 tonnes of contained copper and an 8,000tpa SX-EW facility on care and maintenance since 2022, sitting 150km from AIC's Eloise mine.
• Queensland awarded new exploration acreage, with Idemitsu Australia named preferred tenderer for 269 square kilometres of vanadium ground near Julia Creek, and a CAML Resources/Nippon Steel/Foxleigh Coal consortium securing 54 square kilometres of Bowen Basin coal acreage.

Lithium, Gold & Critical Minerals

• Core Lithium reported FY26 revenue of $17.8 million from stockpile sales and a widened $26 million net loss, but ended the year with $181.8 million cash after a $174.9 million equity raise and US$120 million from Glencore, InfraVia and Nebari. Mining at Grants began in May under an ~$50 million NRW contract, first spodumene concentrate was produced in September, and BP33 underground development ore is targeted for mid-2027.
• Global Lithium agreed to a $333 million takeover by Titan, continuing the consolidation wave across WA lithium.
• Southern Cross Gold's Sunday Creek mining licence application entered public assessment in Victoria, covering 30.7 hectares of company-owned freehold land. President Michael Hudson noted governments and industry partners are seeking new antimony supply sooner than anticipated, with the project already supporting around 120 jobs.
• Auric Mining reported strong drilling at its Munda gold project in WA, including 15m at 5.56 g/t from 6m and 4m at 19.34 g/t from 9m, as it advances towards a planned 2027 restart. Final pit design and ore reserve estimation are due in October.
• Geoscience Australia launched an interactive Green Iron StoryMap through the Digital Atlas of Australia, pulling together geoscience and spatial data on iron ore resources, renewables, infrastructure and water to pitch Australia's green iron opportunity to international investors.

Macro, Policy & Energy

• The bond meltdown accelerated, with the US 10-year yield hitting its highest since June 2007 and Australia's 10-year at 5.4 per cent. Strong US PMI data, a weak US$70 billion five-year Treasury auction at 5.033 per cent, and hawkish Fed commentary pushed the probability of a 0.25 per cent Fed hike in late October to 68.6 per cent from 8.8 per cent a month ago. Soul Patts CEO Todd Barlow has cut equities from 90 per cent to 40 per cent of the portfolio.
• Energy analyst Saul Kavonic warned Australia could face diesel rationing within weeks and prices above $4 a litre if the US proceeds with an export ban ahead of the November midterms. Australia is the world's largest absolute importer of diesel, and mining and agriculture are heavily exposed.
• Fortescue-commissioned analysis by Cyan Ventures claims shared Pilbara energy infrastructure would save the industry more than $4 billion and avoid $4.2 billion in duplicated transmission costs over 25 years, and that capping diesel fuel tax credits at $50 million for big miners would deliver $7.1 billion in economic benefit to WA. The Chamber of Minerals and Energy WA disputes the findings, warning of more than $500 million in extra costs for zero environmental gain.
• Bowen Coking Coal has walked away from the Bluff coal mine in central Queensland, leaving rehabilitation to the state government. The environmental permit showed an estimated rehabilitation cost of $12.25 million as of November last year, and the site is now managed under the Abandoned Mine Lands Program.
• Queensland Premier David Crisafulli used AusIMM's Critical Minerals Conference to position the state as a trusted global supplier, while AusIMM CEO Stephen Durkin flagged STEM talent as Australia's "ultimate sovereign capability."
• Rio Tinto announced a three-year partnership with the Australian Literacy and Numeracy Foundation to support First Nations language preservation across Mapoon, Nhulunbuy/Yirrkala, Bidyadanga, Bundjalung and Kalkatungu Country, and Sandvik launched its 2026–2028 Innovate Reconciliation Action Plan with a 3.5 per cent minimum First Nations representation target.