Daily Overview: 4 September 2026
published: 2026-09-04
The Day Ahead
All eyes are on the US Non-Farm Payrolls report at 22:30 AEST. Consensus is for a rebound to 56K jobs after last month's shock -23K print, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.1%. A strong number will cement the case for the Fed to stay on hold, while a miss could reignite rate cut speculation — either way, expect volatility in the USD and gold. Watch the Average Hourly Earnings figures too; a hotter-than-expected 0.3% MoM print would add to the sticky inflation narrative that's been driving the US 10-year yield higher.
Locally, the lithium rally from yesterday's CATL mine closure news will be tested for follow-through. The market is still digesting whether the Jianxiawo shutdown is a genuine supply-side shock or a temporary blip. With Benchmark Mineral Intelligence slashing its 2026 production forecast for the mine by nearly half, ASX lithium names could see continued momentum. Also keep an eye on the Canadian employment data at 22:30 — a sharp slowdown from last month's 75.1K gain is forecast, which could weigh on the commodity complex.
Currency Movements
| Pair | Price | 24hr Change | 7-Day Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | 0.7183 | +0.0046 (+0.64%) | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1608 | +0.0025 (+0.22%) | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3501 | -0.0010 (-0.07%) | |
| USD/JPY | 156.91 | -2.7690 (-1.73%) | |
| USD/CAD | 1.3809 | -0.0126 (-0.90%) | |
| USD/CHF | 0.8092 | -0.0051 (-0.63%) | |
| NZD/USD | 0.5867 | +0.0042 (+0.72%) |
Economic Calendar
Australia
| Time | Country | Event | Previous | Consensus | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 September | |||||
| 10:30 | AU | Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | 6% | -3.6% | |
| 11:30 | AU | NAB Business Confidence | -6 | -8 | |
| High impact * Revised value | |||||
International
| Time | Country | Event | Previous | Consensus | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 September | |||||
| 16:00 | DE | Factory Orders MoM | 3.1% | 0.3% | -0.6% |
| 18:30 | GB | S&P Global Construction PMI | 44.7 | 45.5 | 45 |
| 18:50 | GB | BoE Gov Bailey Speech | |||
| 19:00 | EA | Retail Sales MoM | -0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 22:30 | CA | Unemployment Rate | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| 22:30 | CA | Employment Change | 75.1K | 15K | 10.0K |
| 22:30 | CA | Full Time Employment Chg | 38.6K | 4.0K | |
| 22:30 | CA | Part Time Employment Chg | 36.6K | 6.0K | |
| 22:30 | CA | Participation Rate | 65.1% | 65.2% | |
| 22:30 | US | Non Farm Payrolls | -23K | 56K | 42.0K |
| 22:30 | US | Unemployment Rate | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| 22:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 22:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.2% | 3% | 3.1% |
| 22:30 | US | Participation Rate | 61.4% | 61.4% | |
| 5 September | |||||
| 00:00 | CA | Ivey PMI s.a | 55.1 | 56.2 | 55.7 |
| 8 September | |||||
| 13:00 | CN | Balance of Trade | $112.5B | $120.0B | |
| 13:00 | CN | Exports YoY | 23.9% | ||
| 13:00 | CN | Imports YoY | 27.5% | ||
| 16:00 | DE | Balance of Trade | €15.4B | €17.5B | |
| 9 September | |||||
| 11:30 | CN | Inflation Rate YoY | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 10 September | |||||
| 22:15 | EA | Deposit Facility Rate | 2.25% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| 22:15 | EA | ECB Interest Rate Decision | 2.4% | 2.65% | 2.65% |
| 22:30 | US | PPI MoM | 0% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 22:45 | EA | ECB Press Conference | |||
| 11 September | |||||
| 00:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.06M | 4.03M | 4.05M |
| 16:00 | GB | GDP MoM | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 22:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 22:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.5% | 2.4% | |
| 22:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 22:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4% | 3.4% | |
| High impact * Revised value | |||||
Yesterday's Key Stories
Economic Releases
- Australia's trade balance came in at A$1.923B, well above the A$1.40B consensus and the A$1.1B forecast, though down from the revised A$2.341B previous reading — a solid result that underscores the resilience of resource exports.
- US ISM Services PMI surged to 55.4, beating the 54.3 consensus and marking a strong acceleration from 54.1, signalling continued momentum in the US services sector despite trade headwinds.
- The US trade deficit widened to -$88.6B, slightly better than the -$90B consensus but a significant deterioration from the revised -$71.2B, driven by a jump in imports to $399.3B.
- US initial jobless claims came in at 206K, marginally above the 205K consensus, suggesting the labour market remains tight ahead of tonight's payrolls report.
Lithium & Battery Minerals
- Lithium markets rallied after CATL's Jianxiawo mine — China's largest by capacity — was placed into care and maintenance following revocation of its environmental impact assessment. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence cut its 2026 production forecast for the mine by nearly half to 32,000 tonnes LCE, with Morgan Stanley warning the 2027 market could swing from surplus to deficit if the mine stays closed.
- ASX lithium stocks including IGO, Mineral Resources and Pilbara Minerals rose 2-3% on the news, with energy storage demand remaining robust (shipments up 94% year-on-year) even as EV sales soften in China.
- Vulcan Energy's Project Ludwig PFS outlined a 30-year operation producing 21,100 tpa of battery-grade lithium carbonate with a post-tax NPV of $2.7 billion and IRR of 20.2%, positioning the company for a repeatable development platform across its 2,000 sq km German licence area.
Gold & Iron Ore
- Vault Minerals reported a near 10% increase in group gold ore reserves to almost 4 million ounces, driven by a 48% increase at Darlot and a 30% rise in King of the Hills underground resources, underpinning a three-year standalone production outlook through FY29.
- Fenix Resources established a maiden ore reserve for its Beebyn Hub totalling 26.9 million tonnes at 60.0% iron, targeting production of up to 6 Mtpa by FY28 with a longer-term ambition of 10 Mtpa by 2031.
- Meeka Metals achieved nameplate throughput of 600ktpa at its Andy Well gold operation, with an ore sorter due for commissioning in October expected to double head grade and free milling capacity for the planned Turnberry underground mine.
- NT traditional owners are considering mandating rehabilitation guarantees for new mines after a report found the $6.2 million bond for the collapsed Nathan River Resources iron ore mine is grossly inadequate, with rehabilitation costs estimated between $108 million and $1.1 billion.
Macro & Policy
- The federal government released draft legislation allowing existing discretionary trusts to elect a fixed distribution regime, avoiding the proposed 30% minimum tax and sidestepping costly restructuring and stamp duty — a significant concession to business groups that had warned of chaos.
- Treasurer Jim Chalmers acknowledged the government's changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing are contributing to the housing downturn, with major banks forecasting dwelling price declines of 9-13% from peak to trough.
- The Productivity Commission rejected calls for emergency tariffs on imported structural steel, finding imports did not cause serious injury to the local industry — a decision that has angered Weld Australia and local manufacturers.
- Rio Tinto's Bell Bay Aluminium smelter in Tasmania faces potential closure due to a stalemate in power agreement negotiations with Hydro Tasmania, with a $60 million annual gap threatening 550 jobs and a supply chain of over 200 businesses.
