Daily Overview: 14 August 2026

All eyes turn to the US retail sales print at 22:30 AEST — the control group is forecast to ease to 0.4% from 0.5%, while headline sales are expected to firm to 0.3%. With core CPI and PPI both coming in soft this week, a weak retail number would cement the case for the Fed to hold in September and potentially weigh on the USD — supportive for gold and base metals. Watch the Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary at midnight; a drop from 55.2 to 54.6 would signal the consumer is cracking under the weight of the Iran war energy shock.

Locally, the RBA's Chris Kent spoke yesterday and flagged that the housing downturn — amplified by the government's property tax changes — reduces the need for rate hikes. That's a dovish signal that should keep a floor under rate-sensitive sectors. Today's Australian home loans data at 11:30 AEST is forecast to improve to -2.3% from -4.3%, but investment lending is expected to deteriorate further to -6.4% — the budget's tax changes are still biting. The Tomago aluminium bailout story will continue to develop, with questions mounting over the lack of a published business case for the $2.5 billion taxpayer commitment.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• US core PPI rose just 0.2% month-on-month, below the 0.3% consensus, while headline PPI was flat against a 0.2% expected rise — reinforcing the disinflationary picture from Wednesday's soft CPI print and supporting the case for the Fed to hold rates in September.
• US initial jobless claims jumped to 209K from 200K, above the 202K consensus — the labour market is cooling, though not yet cracking.
• UK GDP growth came in at 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, in line with expectations, but the goods trade deficit widened to £-23.01B against a £-20.5B consensus — a weak spot for the UK economy.

Aluminium & Energy

• The federal and NSW governments committed $2.5 billion to secure Tomago Aluminium's future to 2038, with Rio Tinto investing $1.1 billion in upgrades and decarbonisation — but critics note the federal contribution has no declared cap and no business case has been published.
• Origin Energy posted a 6% rise in net profit to $1.55 billion, with energy markets EBITDA near the top of guidance, and is expanding its battery portfolio to tap the data centre boom — shares rose 5.2%.
• The abandoned Cliff Head oil platform off Western Australia has gone unlit following the administration of its operators, sparking Maritime Union safety warnings and questions over decommissioning obligations.

M&A & Corporate

• EQT Infrastructure lobbed a $9.4 billion bid for Cleanaway at $3.13 per share, a 32.1% premium, with the board granting nine weeks of exclusive due diligence — the deal values Cleanaway at 20 times EBIT, well above Carlyle's recent Waste Services Group acquisition at 17 times.
• Treasury Wine Estates scrapped its dividend and warned of no profit growth this year after a $1.08 billion loss driven by a $1.3 billion writedown in US operations — shares rose 6% on the China crackdown showing early promise.
• Telstra reported a 0.8% revenue decline to $22.9 billion but a 2.7% profit rise, with CEO Vicki Brady's pay up 11% to $6.8 million — the stock fell 4% on a $200 million capex increase for its Aura network.
• ASX Limited's underlying profit rose 5% to $536.4 million, but expenses jumped 21.1% and statutory profit fell 3.5% on regulatory fines and the Sympli stake sale.
• Transurban doubled net profit to $432 million on cost-cutting despite weak traffic, but the West Gate Tunnel is running at barely half its forecast volumes — 36,000 daily vehicles versus a 67,000 forecast by 2031.
• ANZ's quarterly cash profit nudged up 2% to $1.9 billion, but mortgage applications slumped 12% since the budget's property tax changes — a trend echoed across the major banks.

Copper & Gold

• AIC Mines reported high-grade copper-gold results at its Brumby prospect in Queensland, with one hole returning 46.4m at 3.6% copper and 1.0g/t gold, including 10.5m at 14.4% copper — elevating Brumby to top exploration priority.
• Carnaby Resources delivered final drill results from Greater Duchess ahead of Evolution Mining's acquisition, with two new discoveries grading up to 5.4% copper equivalent.
• True North Copper is planning a $15 million-plus placement to fund exploration at its Mt Oxide and Cloncurry projects, with copper futures near record highs.
• Hanking Gold is reviving the mothballed Mount Bundy gold mine in the NT, expecting profitability in its first year of production with a 17-year mine life — one of more than 20 old operations being revived across Australia.