Daily Overview: 16 October 2026

No tier-one data today, but three central bank speeches will set the tone: BoE governor Bailey at 12:00, Fed chair Warsh at 13:30 and BoC governor Macklem at 14:15. Warsh is the one that matters. Yesterday's US inflation data was ugly — PPI at 1.3 per cent month-on-month against 0.5 per cent expected, core PPI at 0.7 per cent, CPI at 3.7 per cent versus 3.6 per cent consensus — and it has re-ignited Fed rate hike bets and pushed bond yields higher. Any signal from Warsh that the next move is up will hit long-duration assets hard, and that includes the gold miners and what's left of the data centre trade.

The data slate is second-tier but worth watching for the inflation read-through. US export and import prices (22:30) are both forecast to accelerate, to 0.7 per cent and 0.8 per cent respectively, which would reinforce the reacceleration story, and industrial production (23:15) is forecast to edge up just 0.1 per cent after flatlining. Canada's housing starts (22:15) are expected to fall to 210,000 from 229,000, a mild negative for lumber and copper demand. The eurozone trade balance (19:00) is pencilled in at €14.7bn against €14.2bn. The US monthly budget statement (04:00) is projected to swing to a $25bn deficit from $167bn, which will get more attention than usual given how febrile the bond market already is. Locally, yesterday's shock employment contraction — 39,300 jobs lost against a 20,000 gain expected, unemployment at a five-year high of 4.7 per cent — has cut the ground from under the RBA's tightening bias, and the Australian dollar and rate-sensitive small caps will trade accordingly.

Commodities have a fresh bullish datapoint in oil after US crude stocks fell 8.557 million barrels against expectations of a 0.3 million-barrel draw, compounded by fires on two chemical tankers in Romanian waters and the continuing drone campaign against shipping in the Black Sea. Copper and the electrical contractors are the ones to watch on the AI question: the neocloud selloff that took CoreWeave down more than 15 per cent and killed Firmus's $44bn float is the first serious crack in the data centre demand narrative, and Maas Group is already down 40 per cent in a month. Aluminium is in focus after the Trade Remedies Commission proposed dumping duties of up to 70 per cent on Chinese windows and doors, with the metal already down 9 per cent over the past month to $US3,008 a tonne.

International

Economic Releases

• Australia's labour market cracked in September: employment fell 39,300 against consensus for a 20,000 gain, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.7 per cent versus 4.6 per cent expected — a five-year high. Part-time employment collapsed 73,700 while full-time rose 34,400, and participation slipped to 66.8 per cent from 67 per cent.
• US PPI printed at 1.3 per cent month-on-month against 0.5 per cent expected, with core PPI at 0.7 per cent versus 0.3 per cent, and CPI at 3.7 per cent against 3.6 per cent consensus. Retail sales rose 0.8 per cent versus 0.3 per cent expected, but the control group managed only 0.1 per cent, suggesting the consumer is not as strong as the headline implies.
• EIA data showed a crude draw of 8.557 million barrels against expectations of a 0.3 million-barrel decline, while gasoline stocks built 3.518 million barrels.
• UK GDP rose 0.1 per cent in the month against a 0.1 per cent contraction expected, with industrial production up 0.8 per cent and manufacturing up 1.2 per cent — a rare upside surprise. Eurozone industrial production fell 0.5 per cent against flat expectations.
• US manufacturing surveys diverged sharply: the NY Empire State index jumped to 25.5 from 7.6 (10.3 expected) while the Philadelphia Fed index fell to 20.9 from 37.8.

Gold & Base Metals

• Regis Resources won its Federal Court challenge to the Commonwealth heritage declaration that had stalled the McPhillamys gold project (1.89 Moz reserve). The matter returns to Environment Minister Murray Watt for redetermination, and Regis is progressing an alternative development path that avoids the affected area; AMEC, AREEA and the NSW Minerals Council all welcomed the ruling.
• Mark Creasy's AIM Mining has hired Canaccord Genuity and Euroz Hartleys to test appetite for a $1bn-plus Pilbara gold float, seeking about $200m split between a managing director sell-down and growth capital. It follows Wiluna Mining's $180m IPO pricing at the bottom of its range.
• Encounter Resources reported 12.7m at 4.9 per cent copper from 25.75m at its Tyrell prospect in WA, within a broader 44m at 1.7 per cent copper, and identified a 3km structural corridor running toward Maitland.
• Larvotto Resources shipped its first 68-tonne antimony concentrate from Hillgrove to offtake partner Wogen, with the mine forecast to produce about 4,900 tonnes of antimony and 40,500oz of gold annually over an initial eight-year life.
• Waratah Minerals extended the Consols gold system at its Spur project in NSW on multiple fronts, including 17m at 4.10 g/t from 944m and 167m at 0.91 g/t from 485m. Alkane Resources flagged a possible deeper extension beneath Peak Hill's Proprietary pit, though a 1,651m hole returned only low grades; it will drill a further 6,600m from November.

Policy, Energy & Trade

• Western Australia is pushing back hard on the federal domestic gas reservation scheme, with Premier Roger Cook urging WA federal MPs to secure a full carve-out and Japanese officials raising concerns about supply. The legislation now heads to a Senate committee, and CME's Aaron Morey called the issue one of the highest importance to Japan.
• The Trade Remedies Commission found Chinese aluminium windows and doors were dumped in Australia with margins of 5.3 per cent to 70.4 per cent, causing about $350m in losses to local producers. Importers must post financial guarantees of up to 73.3 per cent of product value from 15 October, with final recommendations due 16 December; Capral welcomed the finding.
• Queensland introduced industrial relations changes giving the minister power to terminate protected industrial action where it threatens safety or causes significant economic damage, plus a three-day notice requirement and a tightening of psychological injury claims — relevant to the state's mining and rail workforce.
• Victoria gave final state approval to the Warracknabeal Energy Park, a 1.5GW, 219-turbine wind farm with two 300MW batteries billed as the southern hemisphere's largest, sending it to the federal environment minister. In the NT, the Labor opposition reversed position to support a moratorium on hyper-scale data centres until July next year.
• The ACCC flagged a large pipeline of cartel cases, launched court action against egg supplier Sunny Queen and 11 other producers, and is preparing its first price-gouging investigations into Coles and Woolworths.
• A BCA-led alliance of 30 business groups wrote to Treasurer Jim Chalmers warning that inadequate consultation on tax changes is endemic across portfolios, noting 490,000 SMEs are structured through discretionary trusts. The 30 per cent minimum trust tax bill is now before parliament.

The AI Trade & Markets

• Firmus Technologies' $44bn ASX float collapsed and dragged the global neocloud complex with it: CoreWeave fell more than 15 per cent in a day and more than 28 per cent in a week, IREN lost 12 per cent and is down 37 per cent since late last month, and Nebius slumped 10 per cent. Elon Musk's single-word reply — "Yikes" — captured the mood. Gartner forecasts neoclouds will spend $US7tn from 2026 to 2030 against about $US3.6tn of revenue, with over 80 per cent of providers forced to cease independent operations by 2030.
• Maas Group, treated as a Firmus proxy, is down 40 per cent over the past month. It repurchased a further 5.2 million shares and reaffirmed $1.1bn of Firmus contracts, but managing director Wes Maas cancelled his Morgans conference appearance for the second time this year.
• Firmus backer Tectonic Investment Management told investors a Nasdaq listing is the most likely path and could deliver bigger returns than the failed ASX float, with any outcome at least six to 12 months away. It still values its stake in line with the August private round at $US10.5bn.
• Glencore began trading on the ASX as a secondary listing, with JPMorgan calling the shares cheap at 0.82 times NPV and UBS pointing to copper growth and cash returns. Separately, ASX chief Anthony Attia is pushing for a T+1 settlement cycle, warning that staying on T+2 risks making the market expensive for global investors.
• The RBA posted an $8.5bn accounting loss for 2025-26 and is $11.3bn in negative equity after a $9.9bn portfolio write-down, and does not expect to resume dividends for a decade.
• Australia's housing correction deepened, with Sydney's final auction clearance rate at 27.1 per cent — its lowest outside COVID — and Bank of Queensland reporting a 15 per cent fall in cash profit as its mortgage book shrank $4.6bn, though the shares rose 5 per cent on recovery hopes.