Daily Overview: 7 August 2026

China's trade data at 1pm AEST is the morning's key event for commodity markets. Consensus points to a sharp cooling — exports slowing from 27% to 22.2% year-on-year and the surplus shrinking from $125.6 billion to around $105 billion. If the numbers undershoot, iron ore and base metals will feel it; if they beat, expect a relief rally. Either way, this is the clearest read we'll get on Chinese demand before next week's activity data.

Tonight's US Non-Farm Payrolls (10:30pm AEST) is the other big one. Consensus looks for 80K jobs versus 57K last month, with unemployment steady at 4.2% and wages flat at 0.3% month-on-month. A print near consensus keeps the Fed on hold and the AUD supported; a miss below 50K would reignite rate-cut speculation and likely drag the greenback down with it.

On the ground, the BHP Port Hedland dispute is far from resolved — the AMWU halved its strike to 24 hours, but the AWU's ship loading ban on Saturday and Sunday strike remain. With iron ore shipments worth over $250 million a weekend at risk, any escalation will move the iron ore price. And keep an eye on the Strait of Hormuz: Trump says a deal is 48 hours away, and crude has already plunged on the prospect. If it collapses, expect oil to snap back hard.

International

Economic Releases

• Australia's trade balance swung to a A$1.929 billion surplus in June from a revised A$2.367 billion deficit, smashing consensus of -A$1.1 billion — a strong export quarter that supports the AUD.
• US initial jobless claims came in at 199K, marginally below the 202K consensus, while nonfarm productivity beat at 1.4% (vs 0.6% expected) and unit labour costs rose just 1.3% against a 2.1% forecast — a disinflationary signal for the Fed.
• German factory orders surged 3.1% month-on-month versus 0.3% consensus, the strongest reading in months and a rare bright spot for European industry.

Iron Ore & Steel

• BHP's Port Hedland industrial action was partially defused — the AMWU cut its planned 48-hour strike to 24 hours after members voted to avoid a double pay loss — but the AWU's Saturday ship loading ban and Sunday strike remain, threatening over $250 million in iron ore shipments.
• Rio Tinto is betting on Rhodes Ridge and Simandou to secure its iron ore future, with Rhodes Ridge in pre-feasibility targeting first ore in 2030 and potential to lift Pilbara output to 360 million tonnes annually, while Simandou will add 60 million tonnes.

Copper & Base Metals

• Glencore nearly doubled adjusted EBITDA to $15.2 billion in the first half, driven by commodity price strength and volatility, and reaffirmed its copper growth path of 1 million tonnes by 2028 and 1.6 million tonnes by 2035.
• Glencore is also pursuing a secondary ASX listing, betting that Australian investor demand — including from AustralianSuper — signals the end of the "woke anti-coal era" and could pave the way for index inclusion and a potential Rio Tinto tie-up.
• Bank of America is opening a Perth office and appointing a new co-head of natural resources investment banking, targeting a bigger slice of the $15.2 billion in mining M&A and nearly $5 billion in ECM activity recorded year-to-date.

Gold & Uranium

• Regis Resources is rejecting pressure to find a quick rebound deal after losing the Vault Minerals takeover to Genesis, instead returning cash to shareholders and eyeing AngloGold Ashanti's 70% stake in Tropicana.
• Forrestania Resources more than doubled its British Hill gold resource to 126,290 ounces at 1.50 g/t, with the indicated component up 180%, and has recommenced drilling with three RC rigs.
• Alligator Energy lifted the Samphire uranium resource 67% to 30 million pounds of uranium oxide and is targeting a mid-2027 feasibility study, with production potentially starting in 2030.

Macro & Policy

• A proposed Iran-Oman deal to end the five-month US-Iran war would give Tehran control over ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz — a major concession that has already sent crude prices plunging, though details remain unresolved.
• The Commonwealth's plan to block gas-fired data centres has drawn fire from the Northern Territory, which calls it "overreach" and argues the territory should govern its own energy mix.
• EY modelling projects AI could add $95–116 billion to Australia's economy over the next decade, but capital-intensive sectors like mining and agriculture are expected to see net employment losses from automation.