The Day Ahead
China's trade data at 1pm AEST is the morning's key event for commodity markets. Consensus points to a sharp cooling — exports slowing from 27% to 22.2% year-on-year and the surplus shrinking from $125.6 billion to around $105 billion. If the numbers undershoot, iron ore and base metals will feel it; if they beat, expect a relief rally. Either way, this is the clearest read we'll get on Chinese demand before next week's activity data.
Tonight's US Non-Farm Payrolls (10:30pm AEST) is the other big one. Consensus looks for 80K jobs versus 57K last month, with unemployment steady at 4.2% and wages flat at 0.3% month-on-month. A print near consensus keeps the Fed on hold and the AUD supported; a miss below 50K would reignite rate-cut speculation and likely drag the greenback down with it.
On the ground, the BHP Port Hedland dispute is far from resolved — the AMWU halved its strike to 24 hours, but the AWU's ship loading ban on Saturday and Sunday strike remain. With iron ore shipments worth over $250 million a weekend at risk, any escalation will move the iron ore price. And keep an eye on the Strait of Hormuz: Trump says a deal is 48 hours away, and crude has already plunged on the prospect. If it collapses, expect oil to snap back hard.
Currency Movements
| Pair | Price | 24hr Change | 7-Day Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | 0.7040 | -0.0009 (-0.13%) | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1546 | +0.0000 (+0.00%) | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3457 | -0.0010 (-0.07%) | |
| USD/JPY | 157.84 | +0.0620 (+0.04%) | |
| USD/CAD | 1.4014 | -0.0049 (-0.35%) | |
| USD/CHF | 0.8086 | -0.0002 (-0.02%) | |
| NZD/USD | 0.5873 | +0.0003 (+0.05%) |
Economic Calendar
International
| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 August | ||||||
| 13:00 | CN | Balance of Trade | $125.62B | $107.0B | $105.0B | |
| 13:00 | CN | Exports YoY | 27% | 22.2% | ||
| 13:00 | CN | Imports YoY | 36% | 27.9% | ||
| 16:00 | DE | Balance of Trade | €19.1B | €17.4B | €17.2B | |
| 16:00 | DE | Exports MoM | 0.9% | 0.2% | ||
| 16:00 | DE | Industrial Production MoM | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 16:00 | GB | Lloyds House Price Index MoM | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 16:00 | GB | Lloyds House Price Index YoY | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 22:30 | CA | Unemployment Rate | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | |
| 22:30 | CA | Employment Change | 18.2K | 15K | 25.0K | |
| 22:30 | CA | Full Time Employment Chg | 0.6K | 21.0K | ||
| 22:30 | CA | Part Time Employment Chg | 17.5K | 4.0K | ||
| 22:30 | CA | Participation Rate | 65% | 65.1% | ||
| 22:30 | US | Non Farm Payrolls | 57K | 80K | 79.0K | |
| 22:30 | US | Unemployment Rate | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | |
| 22:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 22:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | |
| 22:30 | US | Participation Rate | 61.5% | 61.6% | ||
| 8 August | ||||||
| 00:00 | CA | Ivey PMI s.a | 56.2 | 55.5 | 55 | |
| 00:00 | US | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| High impact * Revised value | ||||||
Yesterday's Key Stories
Economic Releases
- Australia's trade balance swung to a A$1.929 billion surplus in June from a revised A$2.367 billion deficit, smashing consensus of -A$1.1 billion — a strong export quarter that supports the AUD.
- US initial jobless claims came in at 199K, marginally below the 202K consensus, while nonfarm productivity beat at 1.4% (vs 0.6% expected) and unit labour costs rose just 1.3% against a 2.1% forecast — a disinflationary signal for the Fed.
- German factory orders surged 3.1% month-on-month versus 0.3% consensus, the strongest reading in months and a rare bright spot for European industry.
Iron Ore & Steel
- BHP's Port Hedland industrial action was partially defused — the AMWU cut its planned 48-hour strike to 24 hours after members voted to avoid a double pay loss — but the AWU's Saturday ship loading ban and Sunday strike remain, threatening over $250 million in iron ore shipments.
- Rio Tinto is betting on Rhodes Ridge and Simandou to secure its iron ore future, with Rhodes Ridge in pre-feasibility targeting first ore in 2030 and potential to lift Pilbara output to 360 million tonnes annually, while Simandou will add 60 million tonnes.
Copper & Base Metals
- Glencore nearly doubled adjusted EBITDA to $15.2 billion in the first half, driven by commodity price strength and volatility, and reaffirmed its copper growth path of 1 million tonnes by 2028 and 1.6 million tonnes by 2035.
- Glencore is also pursuing a secondary ASX listing, betting that Australian investor demand — including from AustralianSuper — signals the end of the "woke anti-coal era" and could pave the way for index inclusion and a potential Rio Tinto tie-up.
- Bank of America is opening a Perth office and appointing a new co-head of natural resources investment banking, targeting a bigger slice of the $15.2 billion in mining M&A and nearly $5 billion in ECM activity recorded year-to-date.
Gold & Uranium
- Regis Resources is rejecting pressure to find a quick rebound deal after losing the Vault Minerals takeover to Genesis, instead returning cash to shareholders and eyeing AngloGold Ashanti's 70% stake in Tropicana.
- Forrestania Resources more than doubled its British Hill gold resource to 126,290 ounces at 1.50 g/t, with the indicated component up 180%, and has recommenced drilling with three RC rigs.
- Alligator Energy lifted the Samphire uranium resource 67% to 30 million pounds of uranium oxide and is targeting a mid-2027 feasibility study, with production potentially starting in 2030.
Macro & Policy
- A proposed Iran-Oman deal to end the five-month US-Iran war would give Tehran control over ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz — a major concession that has already sent crude prices plunging, though details remain unresolved.
- The Commonwealth's plan to block gas-fired data centres has drawn fire from the Northern Territory, which calls it "overreach" and argues the territory should govern its own energy mix.
- EY modelling projects AI could add $95–116 billion to Australia's economy over the next decade, but capital-intensive sectors like mining and agriculture are expected to see net employment losses from automation.
Today's Useless Fact
A giraffe can clean its ears with its 21-inch tongue!