Daily Overview: 14 October 2026

Tonight's US CPI print (22:30 AEST) is the week's biggest macro event and the one most likely to move the AUD and commodity markets. Headline inflation is forecast at 3.6 per cent year-on-year, up from 3.4 per cent, with core holding at 2.4 per cent and core month-on-month easing to 0.2 per cent from 0.3 per cent. Given the crude and diesel shock now working through the global economy — Brent at US$107 and refined products tighter than crude suggests — the risk is skewed to an upside surprise. Fed speakers Bowman and Barkin are also on the wires, and any hawkish read-through will feed directly into the bond-yield rotation already under way.

China's morning data dump (11:30 and 13:00 AEST) matters more for bulk commodities than anything on the domestic calendar. CPI is forecast to tick up to 1.0 per cent year-on-year from 0.8 per cent, but the PPI forecast of 4.3 per cent (down from 4.5 per cent consensus and 3.8 per cent previously) and imports growth of 24.5 per cent (from 28.2 per cent) are the numbers to watch — a soft import read would reinforce the view that Chinese industrial demand is cooling, with direct implications for iron ore and copper. The trade surplus is forecast to narrow to US$110 billion from US$119.1 billion. Lagarde, Bailey and Macklem all speak, so expect plenty of rate-path noise across the session.

On the corporate front, Glencore begins trading on the ASX on Wednesday morning via CDIs — early transfers of about 44 million shares worth roughly $488 million, with the real question being how quickly it forces its way into the ASX 100 and triggers index-tracking flows. Gold Fields' near-$40 billion pursuit of Northern Star remains live after the initial rejection, and the Firmus collapse continues to reverberate through Maas Group. Watch lithium names after yesterday's sell-off, and keep an eye on the diesel narrative — it is now the single most important input into the RBA's inflation problem.

International

Economic Releases

• AU NAB Business Confidence fell to -13 from -9, the sharpest deterioration since the Middle East conflict escalated in March — a clear signal that the domestic economy is weakening even as the RBA stays hawkish.
• US Existing Home Sales beat at 3.99 million against a 3.95 million consensus, with month-on-month sales up 1.5 per cent versus a forecast -0.3 per cent decline — a rare bright spot in an otherwise soft US housing picture.
• US ADP Employment Change Weekly came in at 24.75K, up modestly from 23.75K, suggesting the US labour market remains resilient ahead of tonight's CPI print.

Gold, Iron Ore & Mining Deals

• Gold Fields is open to increasing the cash component of its rejected $38.7 billion ($27 a share) bid for Northern Star Resources and to creating an ASX listing, with CEO Mike Fraser seeking Australian investor support. The merged group would be the world's second-biggest gold producer, owning eight of Australia's 20 largest gold mines and producing 4.1 million ounces annually.
• Glencore lists on the ASX on Wednesday via CDIs, with early transfers of about 44 million shares worth roughly $488 million — a market cap well under half a billion dollars initially, but Gary Nagle expects about $5.5 billion and index inclusion within one to two years.
• Larvotto Resources hit high-grade gold-antimony-tungsten at four lodes at Hillgrove's Metz Mining Centre in NSW, including a new Echidna lode, with results up to 20.5m at 9.4g/t AuEq. Hillgrove is now Australia's largest antimony mine, with first concentrate produced in September.
• Horizon Gold reported its strongest result to date at the Snook prospect — 44m at 5.08 g/t gold from 145m — while PC Gold identified a new high-grade North Link zone north of its 1.51-million-ounce Spring Hill resource in the NT.
• The High Court in London halted a bid by rival lawyers to take over representation of 400,000 Brazilian victims suing BHP over the 2015 Mariana tailings dam collapse, siding with PGMBM. BHP has already paid US$7.3 billion to more than 646,000 Brazilians, with the substantive trial due in April.
• The WA government awarded $6.16 million in co-funded drilling grants to 40 projects under round 34 of the Exploration Incentive Scheme, with copper in about half the programs and 12 projects targeting critical minerals.

Energy, Gas & Climate Policy

• NSW will use its renewable energy subsidy scheme to support new gas power plants, putting it at odds with the Albanese government's exclusion of gas from the federal Capacity Investment Scheme. The next auction in 2027 is likely to back two to four gas peaking plants as three major NSW coal generators close by 2033.
• AGL CEO Damien Nicks urged Labor to put gas into the renewables subsidy scheme, warning gas plants will be uneconomic for major developers without a mechanism, and said building new coal plants "doesn't make sense." AEMO estimates around 15GW of peaking gas will be needed by 2050, up from about 12GW now.
• The diesel shock is intensifying: IEA analyst Thomas Spencer said oil supplies are dangerously low with four buffers faltering, refined products are much tighter than crude suggests, and diesel prices are unlikely to retreat much over the next year — bad news for RBA governor Michele Bullock and the inflation fight.
• The Climate Council warned coal and gas mines are using a "loophole" in the Safeguard Mechanism to expand without meeting best-practice limits, with modelling suggesting 22 planned expansions could emit 11 times more than if treated as new facilities. Separately, the High Court's 3-2 ruling on scope 3 emissions for a Hunter Valley coal extension will be referred back to the NSW IPC.
• Victorian Labor's plan to ban gas connections to new homes could push household gas distribution charges up $142 to $267 a year and cost high industrial users up to $111,444 more, according to modelling commissioned by the Australian Gas Infrastructure Group.

Macro, Markets & Corporate

• RBA September minutes were hawkish, with the board unanimous on the hike to 4.6 per cent and staff flagging unemployment may need to rise above 4.7 per cent to return inflation to 2.5 per cent. ANZ's Adam Boyton said a November hike is more likely than not, with markets pricing a near 30 per cent chance of a move to 4.85 per cent on Melbourne Cup day.
• The IMF projects Australia will have one of the developed world's highest inflation rates next year at 3.1 per cent, still above target, with unemployment rising to 4.7 per cent — a stagflationary warning as Middle East conflict and fuel prices bite.
• Firmus Technologies' scrapped ASX float continues to reverberate: Maas Group shares fell more than 20 per cent, Fidante defended marking up its Lennox fund holding three weeks before listing, and Ellerston Capital told investors it remains positive while eyeing a Nasdaq IPO in 2027. Perpetual's Vince Pezzullo called Firmus a "finance company with an asset liability mismatch."
• Global bond yields hit multi-decade highs, with Australia's 10-year at around 5.3 per cent and US 10-year at 5.2 per cent, prompting BlackRock to step back into short-term US government debt and JPMorgan Asset Management to flag compelling value in Australian sovereign debt.
• The ACCC launched Federal Court proceedings against 12 egg producers including market leader Sunny Queen, alleging a cartel operating for more than six years to limit supply and drive up prices — the regulator's first civil prosecution under concerted practices laws introduced in 2017.
• Toyota agreed to pay $750 million to settle two class actions over diesel exhaust defects in HiLux, Prado and Fortuner models, covering 136,000 customers, with litigation funder Balance Legal Capital seeking a 32.5 per cent commission.
• CBA reached an in-principle enterprise agreement with the FSU covering 35,000 staff, guaranteeing 13 per cent pay rises over three years and establishing an AI committee, ending a six-month stand-off ahead of its AGM.
• Bristlemoon Capital is shorting REA Group, betting the housing downturn and RBA rate rises will cut listings volumes 5-10 per cent in FY27 and drive the share price below $100, while Ten Cap's Jun Bei Liu holds a long position.