Daily Overview: 30 September 2026

All eyes are on Australia's monthly CPI at 11:30 AEST, and it is the single most important print of the week. Forecasts point to headline inflation easing to 4.0 per cent year-on-year from 3.5 per cent, with the RBA's preferred trimmed mean seen at 3.7 per cent from 3.6 per cent. That would still leave underlying inflation well above the 2–3 per cent target band, and after yesterday's hike to 4.6 per cent, a hot number would harden the case for a November move that markets have only priced at 38 per cent. A soft print, by contrast, would vindicate Michele Bullock's deliberately calibrated tone and could see the Australian dollar extend its slide below US70¢.

China's PMI round lands at the same time and matters just as much for bulk commodities. The NBS manufacturing gauge is forecast to tick back to 50.0 from 49.8, with non-manufacturing at 49.6 from 49.0 — still contractionary, and hardly a ringing endorsement for iron ore or copper demand. Watch the RatingDog readings at 11:45 for any divergence from the official numbers.

Later tonight, the US delivers a dense data block: final Q2 GDP (1.5 per cent expected), core PCE at 0.3 per cent month-on-month, ADP employment at 49,000, and Chicago PMI at 46.9. With 30-year Treasury yields having touched 5.53 per cent and oil above US$105 on the Strait of Hormuz standoff, any upside surprise on PCE will feed directly into the global bond sell-off and pressure gold and rate-sensitive miners. German inflation at 22:00 and the BoJ Tankan round out the offshore calendar.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• The RBA raised the cash rate 25 basis points to 4.6 per cent, a 15-year high, in a unanimous board decision, but Governor Michele Bullock's measured press conference disappointed hawks — the Australian dollar fell to a two-month low of US69.88¢ and traders cut the implied odds of a November rise to 38 per cent from 44 per cent.
• US CB Consumer Confidence slumped to 81.9 against 89.2 consensus, a sharp miss that underscores the squeeze on US households, while JOLTs job openings came in at 7.079 million versus 7.23 million expected.
• Euro area Economic Sentiment eased to 97.9 against 99 forecast, and Canadian GDP was flat month-on-month, missing the 0.4 per cent prior reading.

Rates, Credit & Markets

• Metrics Credit Partners suspended redemptions from its $6 billion MCP Wholesale Investment Trust and $3.3 billion real estate debt fund, cutting the net asset value of three ASX-listed vehicles and suspending the Master Income Trust from trade — the most serious escalation yet in Australia's $200 billion private credit squeeze.
• Centuria Capital's Bass credit funds have gated redemptions amid exposure to the $3.4 billion Bathla collapse and insolvent developer WST Property Group, with Centuria shares down almost 50 per cent since June; ASIC has called a roundtable with major insolvency firms and flagged a second review of the sector.
• Nvidia lifted its buyback by a record US$150 billion to US$235 billion and agreed to acquire Hugging Face for about US$13 billion, while also unveiling an open-source AI agent security platform it says would have prevented the Hugging Face breach.
• Megaport surged more than 14 per cent after winning three AI contracts worth $978.6 million and upsizing a debt facility to $845 million to build a GPU pool, with one customer prepaying $281.5 million.
• Firmus Technologies delayed its IPO bookbuild by two days to October 8 after a Meta computing-capacity deal lifted its expected EBIT by about 15 per cent; Morgan Stanley has floated a valuation range of US$65 billion to US$90 billion.
• OpenAI apologised for its handling of a breach in which AI agents accessed Australian government websites including a Medicare statistics platform, pledging a US$1 billion fund for critical infrastructure defences ahead of its October 6 parliamentary testimony; Anthropic's IPO prospectus revealed a US$60 billion loss in 2025.
• The US and China agreed reciprocal tariff cuts on US$60 billion of goods — covering fireworks, toys and soccer balls on the US side and corn, timber, emus and surgical robots on China's — but excluded soybeans, rare earths and AI-linked technology.

Mining & Resources

• Ramelius Resources secured a Part V works approval for its Roe gold project in WA, a vital milestone supporting its four-year outlook of 560,000–610,000oz group production by FY30, with plant EPC tendered and early works at Rebecca imminent.
• Boab Metals lifted the Sorby Hills silver-lead resource 7 per cent to 50.6Mt containing 54.7Moz silver and 1.5Mt lead, and executed a binding heads of agreement with RE:GROUP Australia for mining services ahead of first concentrate in H2 2027.
• Encounter Resources outlined shallow copper oxide blankets extending more than 1km along strike at its Parbo system, with intercepts including 52m at 0.6 per cent copper, potentially additive to the existing Tyrell resource.
• Waratah Minerals' first hole beneath the historic Ironclad mine returned 37m at 0.92 g/t gold, strengthening the case for a larger mineralised corridor linking Ironclad and Consols at its Spur project in NSW.
• Torque Metals reported its deepest gold intercept to date at the HHH deposit within the Ritz project — 8.9m at 17.50 g/t gold from 344m — with two rigs operating across the project's 351,000oz resource.
• Tungsten Mining advanced funding for its Watershed project with non-binding debt terms supporting gearing up to 70 per cent, or about $200 million against a $274 million pre-production capital cost, and is weighing a US listing.
• Lindian Resources remains in its third trading halt since August as Malawi's government pushes draft legislation requiring domestic processing of minerals before export, with short interest surging from 0.3 per cent to 3.75 per cent against a 1000 per cent rally.
• Codan expects December-half net profit of at least $160 million, more than double the prior year, driven by drone-component demand amid the Russia-Ukraine war; shares jumped 16 per cent to a record above $60, with Minelab also benefiting from the strong gold price.
• About 100 workers at Chinese-owned Premier Coal in Collie walked off the job over a pay dispute, with the union warning proposed roster changes could cut up to $30,000 a year in penalty rates ahead of the state's planned 2030 coal generation shutdown.

Property & Corporate

• First home buyer loan commitments fell from 31,337 in the December quarter to 29,319 in the June quarter despite the budget's negative gearing and CGT changes, with Westpac data showing first home buyer applications down 32 per cent as three rate rises erode borrowing capacity.
• REA Group will spend €248 million ($409 million) for a 35 per cent stake in Irish marketplace group Distilled, owner of Daft.ie and PropertyPal, in CEO Cameron McIntyre's first offshore acquisition and a bet on the vendor-paid advertising model.
• Warburg Pincus lifted its cash bid for Ingenia Communities to $5.25 per stapled security, valuing the group above $3 billion, but Barrenjoey called the offer un compelling and Citi said investors want $5.25 to $5.50; the board has until Friday to grant due diligence.
• Adairs chief executive Elle Roseby will depart after less than two years, with the loss-making retailer's stock down more than 50 per cent since September 2025 and a $64 million impairment at Focus on Furniture dragging the group to a near-$40 million annual loss.
• Chobani will spend about $20 million adapting its Dandenong South plant to enter Australia's flavoured milk market with five flavours, taking on Bega's 40 per cent share of milk-based beverages from November.