Daily Overview: 9 September 2026

All eyes turn to China this morning with the release of inflation data at 11:30 AEST. Consensus expects CPI to tick up to 0.8% year-on-year from 0.5%, with PPI forecast at 3.7% — a modest acceleration that would signal firmer demand from Australia's largest trading partner. A miss on the downside, particularly on PPI, would weigh on iron ore and base metal sentiment after copper's record-breaking run in London.

Oil remains the wildcard. Crude is approaching US$100 a barrel, and tonight's API stock change (06:30 AEST) will show whether inventory drawdowns are accelerating. With the Strait of Hormuz deal reportedly imminent and Middle East tensions simmering, any supply disruption headlines will keep the inflationary bid alive — complicating the RBA's task and adding to the case for another hike at the September board meeting.

Locally, the RBA's Hauser and Hunter both made clear yesterday that rates may need to rise again, with markets now pricing a 60% chance of a hike. Today's focus shifts to whether the housing downturn narrative — which dominated yesterday's AFR Property Summit — starts to feed into political debate ahead of the Victorian election. The Bathla fallout will also continue to develop, with administrators seeking funding and banks bracing for provisions.

International

Economic Releases

• Australian consumer confidence slumped 5.2% in September, well below the -3.6% forecast, with the index falling to 84.4 — a worrying sign for household spending as the housing downturn deepens.
• NAB business confidence fell to -8, matching forecasts but marking the weakest reading in six years, with conditions turning negative for the first time since 2020.
• Chinese trade data beat expectations, with exports up 25% year-on-year (vs 23.9% prior) and the trade surplus hitting $119.1 billion — supportive for commodity demand despite softer import growth of 28.2% (vs 30% consensus).

Copper & Base Metals

• Copper hit a fresh record high of US$14,617 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange — the second record this week — driven by AI, data centre and renewable energy demand, with prices up 17% this year and 75% over three years.
• Metso secured a $48 million order to supply mineral processing technology for an Asia-Pacific copper project, citing electrification-driven demand.
• NVRO Metals acquired the Browns copper oxide project near Darwin, aiming to commercialise its low-temperature hydrometallurgical process and establish a centralised metals hub with initial copper cathode production.

Gold & Lithium

• Core Lithium produced first spodumene concentrate at its Finniss operation within six months of the final investment decision, targeting first shipment in the December quarter 2026 with throughput capacity to rise 20% to 1.2 million tonnes per annum.
• Aureka agreed to acquire the operating Fiddlers Creek underground gold mine and Wedderburn processing mill in Victoria for $8.9 million, making it an immediate gold producer with ~455,000 ounces of inferred resource.
• Rox Resources' Youanmi gold mine remains on schedule for first gold in mid-2027, with underground development exceeding plan and $350 million in debt facilities secured.
• Lunnon Metals completed mining at Lady Herial, producing 14,910 ounces of gold at 100.7% of feasibility forecast, with $39 million pre-tax free cash flow returned.

Macro & Policy

• RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser warned inflation is running stronger than expected and rates may need to rise, with markets pricing a 60% chance of a hike at the September board meeting; he also flagged concerns about AI investment valuations.
• RBA assistant governor Sarah Hunter rejected recession claims from the housing downturn but confirmed the board could still raise rates, with inflation at 3.6% and dwelling values down $34 billion in the June quarter.
• The bond market selloff has silenced MMT proponents, with long-term yields rising across Australia, the US, UK, Germany and Japan on fiscal sustainability concerns — a warning sign for governments running large deficits.
• Oil prices are approaching US$100 a barrel on Middle East tensions and accelerated inventory drawdowns, raising inflationary risks and potential interest rate implications.
• Bathla Group's collapse into administration with 213 staff stood down has banks bracing for higher bad debts, with NAB and ANZ most exposed; lender Balmain blamed "meagre management" and expects full recovery on secured loans.
• Australia's productivity slowdown has cut potential growth to as low as 1.3%, below current GDP growth of 2.1%, fuelling inflation and likely prompting further RBA rate rises.
• The ATO is hitting US tech giants for "billions" in new taxes, inflaming tensions with the Trump administration, while the government announced new algorithm rules for social media platforms.