Daily Overview: 28 September 2026

The calendar is thin but not empty, and the two prints that matter both speak to the same question: how much industrial demand is actually left in the system. India's industrial production (20:30) is forecast to slow to 5.5 per cent year-on-year from 6.7 per cent, with manufacturing decelerating harder still, to 5.9 per cent from 7.3 per cent. India has been the one large economy still adding to seaborne coal, iron ore and copper demand at pace, so a soft print would be read as a warning for bulks, not just for New Delhi. Later, the Dallas Fed manufacturing index (00:30) is tipped to collapse to 1 from 11.6, with Fed's Barkin speaking at 03:30. A genuinely weak Dallas number would sharpen the growth-versus-inflation tension already written all over a bond market with US 30-year yields above 5.5 per cent — the single least helpful input for any project relying on a cost of capital.

Oil is the trade to watch. Brent's 2.7 per cent slide to US$103.75 shows how much geopolitical premium is baked into the barrel, and it came on Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and return to nuclear talks in exchange for sanctions relief. That offer has since been rejected in Washington and Houthi attacks on Riyadh continue, so the premium will not drain away quietly. Diesel is the pressure point — record US and European prices, Australian regional users paying close to $3 a litre — and it flows straight into mine site operating costs. In gas, Asia's JKM benchmark at US$25.29/MMBtu is trading above European hub prices as Europe heads into winter with its lowest storage in at least 15 years, setting up a genuine tug of war for cargoes that will be felt in Australian LNG netbacks.

Closer to home, the RBA is widely expected to lift the cash rate 25 basis points to 4.6 per cent tomorrow, the highest since November 2011, with a credible path above 5 per cent by early next year. That backdrop is squeezing domestic construction, retail and housing, and raising hurdle rates for every board-level investment decision. Also watch the Rio Tinto/Glencore axis after Rio flagged third-party alumina and copper trading and Glencore confirmed a 14 October ASX listing, and keep an eye on data centre power politics — Victoria's new planning rules, the Firmus Wesley Vale standoff in Tasmania and surging grid demand are fast becoming a live permitting risk for anyone depending on new electricity supply.

Australia

International

Macro, Policy & Markets

• Trump and Xi wrapped a three-day White House summit heavy on pageantry and light on deliverables, with no breakthrough on Taiwan, rare earths or semiconductor controls. The pair did agree a two-month extension of the trade truce to 10 January and reciprocal tariff cuts on US$30 billion of goods, plus a new Board of Trade and continued talks on AI — but Washington's "Super Intelligence Dialogue" and Beijing's plain "AI Dialogue" readouts show even the framing is contested.
• China's rare earths chokehold went unaddressed and the US$14 billion Taiwan arms package remains in limbo. For commodity markets the signal is that export-control risk on critical minerals and technology is unchanged by the summit.
• Markets are fully priced for a 25 basis point RBA hike to 4.6 per cent tomorrow, with a live chance of a move above 5 per cent by early next year. The ASX 200 has lost more than 3 per cent in September — its worst month since March — and the consumer discretionary index is down 22.1 per cent over 12 months.
• The global bond selloff remains the dominant macro force: US 30-year yields above 5.5 per cent, the 10-year above 5.2 per cent and Australia's 10-year at 5.4 per cent. Higher risk-free rates are the biggest single driver of valuation pain across resources equities and private credit alike.
• Housing is now doing the tightening for the RBA: national prices are down 3.6 per cent from peak, CBA forecasts a 9 per cent national decline, Sydney is already 7.1 per cent off, and the preliminary auction clearance rate slumped to a 10-week low of 50.3 per cent.
• OpenAI confirmed rogue autonomous agents have affected dozens of third parties globally, not just the Medicare statistics portal breached in June. Mandala Partners modelling for CyberCX puts potential Australian cyber losses at up to $37 billion a year by 2030, with incidents rising from 38,000 last year to 357,000.

Oil, Gas & LNG

• Brent fell 2.7 per cent to US$103.75 a barrel after Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks within seven days in return for a naval blockade lift and sanctions relief. Washington has since rejected the proposal and Houthi strikes on Riyadh continue, so the risk premium is intact.
• Asian and European buyers are bracing for an LNG tug of war: JKM traded at US$25.29/MMBtu against US$24.62 for European delivery, having peaked near US$30 in mid-September. Analysts see US$35 if Hormuz shipments stay disrupted, with Europe entering winter on its lowest gas storage in 15 years.
• WA Energy Minister Amber-Jade Sanderson will fly to Japan to reassure LNG customers over the federal government's proposed gas reservation scheme. Japan takes about 35 per cent of WA LNG exports, worth close to $14 billion, and its ambassador has warned the policy must be practical and attract bipartisan support.
• Diesel is the sleeper risk: US and European prices are at records while NSW users report paying close to $3 a litre. Australia's fuel storage is mostly coastal and reduced regional capacity increases supply risk heading into a hot, dry El Niño summer.

Mining, Metals & Steel

• Rio Tinto will move into third-party metals trading focused on alumina and copper, after the failed US$300 billion Glencore talks exposed how much value sits mid-supply-chain. Shares eased 1.3 per cent to $164.30 but are up more than a third this year; chief commercial officer Bold Baatar will run the push.
• Glencore will begin trading on the ASX on 14 October under ticker GLC, a secondary listing designed to tap Australian superannuation capital.
• Elliott Investment Management — holder of 6.24 per cent of Northern Star — welcomed the miner's refreshed board after Mark Cutifani and Peter Rozenauers joined, and continues to push for non-core sales including Thunderbox, Jundee and Carosue Dam. Northern Star has fallen more than a quarter from its March peak to $32 billion.
• Westview Group is developing a $1 billion reinforcing steel plant at Pinkenba in Queensland, targeting 500,000 tonnes a year by 2029, and has hired Greenhill to structure funding while negotiating an equity stake with Asian and North American partners. It would displace substantial volumes of imported rebar.
• The Whyalla steelworks remains in administration under KordaMentha, with M Resources and Jindal Steel International negotiating to acquire the asset. It has already absorbed almost $3 billion in state and federal funding.
• Iron ore slipped 0.5 per cent to US$95.10 a tonne, gold rose 0.3 per cent to US$4,285.99 an ounce and the AUD firmed 0.3 per cent to US70.30¢.

Power, Data Centres & Energy Transition

• Firmus Technologies has started works at its proposed 52MW AI data centre at Wesley Vale in Tasmania without a permit, according to Latrobe Council, which is assessing whether the activity is illegal and has asked the state government to call it in as a major project. Firmus says the works are site maintenance and has agreed to pause them.
• Victorian data centre politics are boiling over: residents in Melbourne's west are fighting Jemena's new 15-metre, 66,000-volt poles installed to feed NextDC's West Footscray facility. Premier Ben Carroll's Data Centre Action Plan requires developers to supply their own renewables, use non-drinking water and keep 150 metres from homes — but does not apply retrospectively.
• The NSW planning department admitted it skipped agency consultation on the 675MW Moss Vale gas plant proposed to power a Cloud Carrier data centre campus, after the developer threatened legal action. AEMO expects data centres to reach 13 per cent of national grid demand by mid-2036, up from 3 per cent in FY26.
• Federal Labor approved the 1.4GW Bungaban wind farm north-west of Brisbane, with Environment Minister Murray Watt accusing the Queensland LNP government of stifling renewables and warning the Coalition's plan would replicate that nationally. Queensland Treasurer Janetzki rejected the claim.
• Construction is imminent on the Gawara Baya wind farm near Mount Fox in north Queensland — 68 turbines plus a 100MW battery, and the first project to reach construction under the federal Capacity Investment Scheme.
• A Macquarie University study found leaf green tree frogs downstream of Peabody's Metropolitan Mine carried higher chytrid loads and were the only cohort showing late-stage chytridiomycosis deaths. Peabody called any causal link speculative, citing more than $1.5 million in water upgrades since 2022, while the NSW EPA has previously fined the company more than $500,000.
• The Bureau of Meteorology is warning of flash droughts and extreme heat as record Pacific temperatures turbocharge one of the strongest El Niño systems on record. Allianz put Australia's weather-related damage last year at almost US$10 billion, about 0.5 per cent of GDP.