Daily Overview: 31 August 2026

All eyes will be on China's official PMI releases at 11:30 AEST. The NBS Manufacturing PMI is forecast to rebound to 49.7 from 49.2, with the Non-Manufacturing gauge expected to jump to 49.5 from 49.0. A miss on either would intensify concerns about Chinese demand for Australian bulk commodities, particularly iron ore, just as the iron ore price faces renewed pressure from weak steel margins. The consensus is for a modest improvement, but the risk is skewed to the downside given the property sector's ongoing drag.

Locally, the AU Company Gross Profits QoQ print at 11:30 is forecast to surge to 2.5% from -1.3%. A strong result would reinforce the RBA's concern that domestic cost pressures — particularly labour costs — are keeping inflation sticky. With the RBA's preferred inflation gauge stuck at 3.6% and household spending running hot at 7% annualised, the case for a September rate hike is building. Today's data will either cement or challenge that narrative.

Also watch for the US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 00:30 AEST tonight — a forecast dip to 0.7 from 1.3 would be another data point supporting the Fed's hawkish pivot. Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech has already recalibrated market expectations, with traders now pricing a greater than 50% chance of a September hike. That's a headwind for gold and base metals, and the AUD is likely to remain under pressure.

Australia

International

Macro & Policy

• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish Jackson Hole speech, vowing to bring inflation to the 2% target and stating financial conditions are not restrictive. Two-year Treasury yields jumped 11 basis points, and traders now price a greater than 50% chance of a September rate hike, dragging ASX futures down 0.4% and gold 3% to $US4455.11 an ounce.
• RBA research shows domestic labour costs have become a major driver of inflation since 2023, shifting price pressures from overseas to domestic sources. With trimmed mean inflation at 4.7% annualised over three months to July and household spending growing 7% annually, economists increasingly expect a fourth consecutive rate hike in September.
• Energy Minister Chris Bowen rejected claims Queensland and the NT secured carve-outs from new data centre rules requiring 100% renewable energy, saying the Commonwealth will legislate nationally consistent standards with no exceptions. States can apply to use coal or gas only if they prove it's cheaper to the Australian Energy Regulator — a very high bar.
• Trump announced a deal to take majority US control of 65 billion barrels of Venezuela's proven oil reserves through a partnership with private business, drawing backlash from both sides of Venezuelan politics. The deal, which includes 100-year concessions, aims to secure US petroleum supplies and lower gas prices, but experts question its legal basis and long-term viability.

Property, Credit & Finance

• Bathla Group's collapse into administration with debts exceeding $3.3 billion continues to reverberate. CVS Lane, the Liberman family's private credit firm, suspended redemptions across two funds due to ~$250 million exposure across nine loans, while co-founder Bhart Bhushan is personally approaching lenders for funding. Administrators warn of potential liquidation as early as next week, putting 2,500 apartments under construction and 13,000 more in the pipeline at risk.
• The Bathla failure threatens federal and state housing targets, with the affected apartments representing roughly 5% of NSW's expected home completions this year. Lenders are seeking to recover funds, and experts warn of 12-24 month delays for the broader pipeline, with low-income buyers expected to be most affected.
• BUSSQ, the Queensland construction super fund with $7.5 billion in retirement savings, failed APRA's annual performance test for its default MySuper option — the first such failure since 2023. The fund must notify members and faces a ban on new members if it fails again next year.
• ATO data cross-referencing identified approximately 6,000 investment property sales between July 2020 and June 2025 where owners failed to disclose capital gains, with potential outstanding tax of around $66 million. Taxpayers have until October 31 to respond before default assessments with a 75% penalty apply.

Energy & Commodities

• EnergyAustralia confirmed the closure of its Yallourn coal-fired power station by June 2028, having ceased overburden clearing operations. Energy analysts warn the closure will increase electricity prices and reliance on gas, with electricity futures markets already indicating higher Victorian prices.
• Woodside's clean energy division is embroiled in a legal dispute with American entrepreneur Charles Fridge III, accused of diverting over $5 million from a carbon capture project for personal expenses including divorce payments and a wedding. Woodside won summary judgment for repayment and is seeking to hold Fridge personally liable.
• Chevron Australia's president warned of an "emerging pattern" of environmental lawfare undermining Australia's regulatory system, with the company facing a Federal Court challenge from Indigenous traditional owner Raelene Cooper over the Gorgon project's Jansz-Io compression approval. The company estimates $40 million monthly losses from delays.
• Nathan Tinkler received overwhelming shareholder support to become chairman of White Energy, with over 99.9% voting in favor of acquiring a Tinkler-controlled Queensland coal project and raising $15 million. Shares surged from 4 cents to as high as 24 cents after the deal was announced.