Daily Overview: 2 September 2026

Today's focus is squarely on Australian GDP at 11:30 AEST. The market expects growth to slow to 0.2% QoQ and 1.6% YoY, down from 0.3% and 2.5% respectively. If the print comes in weaker, it will reinforce the RBA's tightening bias is done, but if it surprises to the upside, rate hike fears will intensify. Watch the AUD reaction closely.

Overnight, oil topped $US90 a barrel and global bond yields hit multi-year highs, with the Australian 10-year at 5.16% – a 15-year peak. This is a toxic mix for equities and rate-sensitive sectors. Later today, the US ADP employment change is expected to rebound to 51K from 44K, and the BoC is widely expected to hold at 2.25%. Any hawkish surprise from either will add to the global repricing.

The data centre saga continues to dominate energy and infrastructure headlines. With Stack Infrastructure receiving a $25bn-plus bid from a BlackRock-led consortium and the NT government pushing gas-powered data centres, expect more political and investor noise. The Beetaloo gas start-up is a key test of Australia's gas ambitions – watch for any policy pushback.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• Australian building permits fell 3.6% MoM in July, better than the -4.8% consensus but still negative, confirming the housing downturn is entrenched.
• China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in August, beating the 51.0 consensus, signalling resilience in the world's second-largest economy.
• Eurozone inflation held at 3.3% YoY, in line with forecasts, but core inflation eased to 2.4% from 2.5%, giving the ECB some comfort.
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped to 54.6 from 55.6, missing the 55.2 consensus, while JOLTs job openings came in at 7.27M, slightly below expectations.
• API crude oil stocks fell by 2.6M barrels, a larger draw than the 0.8M expected, supporting oil prices above $90.

Gold & Critical Minerals

• Australian mineral exploration expenditure surged 24.8% QoQ to $1.19bn in the June quarter, led by gold (up 23.6% to $565.6m) and uranium (up 130% to $15.4m).
• Barton Gold reported high-grade assays at Tunkillia, including 24m at 4.51 g/t gold, with starter pits modelled to generate ~$1.8bn operating profit over 2.5 years.
• Larvotto Resources commenced antimony and gold production at Hillgrove, becoming Australia's second antimony producer and largest, with forecast output of 4,900t antimony and 40,500oz gold annually.
• Arafura Rare Earths' Nolans project is set to become Australia's first integrated ore-to-oxide rare earths operation, supplying EVs, wind turbines, and defence.
• Queensland is leading a trade mission to Chile, Peru, and Colombia to boost critical minerals collaboration, following a 20.5% rise in exports to Latin America.
• Australia and Korea are targeting critical minerals growth at the AKBC/KABC meeting in Adelaide, focusing on lithium, rare earths, and battery materials.

Energy & Policy

• Fracked gas from the Beetaloo Basin began flowing into the NT power grid, a milestone eight years after the moratorium was lifted, but environmentalists and economists question the economic benefits.
• The AER rejected Transgrid's bid to recover a billion-dollar cost blowout on Project Energy Connect, holding the company accountable for cost overruns.
• Global bond yields hit multi-year highs, with the Australian 10-year at 5.16%, as oil prices topped $US90 a barrel, stoking inflation fears.
• The RBA cut its US dollar reserve allocation from 55% to 45%, shifting to euros, as central banks hedge against Trump-era risks, with gold the biggest beneficiary.
• The Climate Change Authority questioned the durability of 25-year carbon credits, urging the safeguard mechanism review to consider whether they are adequate for net zero.
• Data centre investment faces headwinds: only 38% of infrastructure investors would consider data centres, down from 70%, while Trump slammed opposition and Stack Infrastructure received a $25bn-plus bid from BlackRock, Nvidia, Microsoft, and MGX.

Markets & Investment

• Miners increased their weight on the ASX200 to 26.7%, the highest since 2011, while banks fell to 22.5%, as investors favour copper and inflation plays over housing-exposed banks.
• ASIC closed its investigation into Mineral Resources and Chris Ellison over tax evasion, taking no action, allowing Ellison to remain as MD.
• Australian property prices fell for a fifth straight month, with Sydney down 1.4% in August, as RBA rate hikes and tax changes bite, hitting top-end suburbs hardest.
• The Bathla Group collapse exposed private credit risks, with administrators bringing forward a funding deadline and debts exceeding $3.2bn, highlighting completion risk in development finance.
• Building material costs have risen up to 70% in five years, pushing up insurance rebuild costs and adding to housing affordability pressures.