The Day Ahead
Watch for RBA Governor Bullock's speech at 13:05 AEST this afternoon. The market is pricing rate cuts next year, but Bullock may push back on that timeline given persistent inflation and the government's new oil refinery study signalling ongoing energy cost pressures. Any hawkish tone could weigh on rate-sensitive sectors.
Overnight, US consumer confidence (00:00 AEST) is expected to edge up to 92.2 from 91.2, but the real focus for commodity markets is the API crude oil inventory report at 06:30 AEST. After a surprise 2.6 million barrel build last week, a forecast draw of 1.5 million barrels would support oil prices following yesterday's sharp fall on the Iran-US de-escalation. The US goods trade balance (22:30 AEST) is also worth watching for signs of import demand softening.
The ASX is set to rise, tracking Wall Street's lead ahead of big tech earnings and next week's Fed decision. The PM's oil refinery study announcement could give energy stocks a lift, but the broader market remains cautious on inflation and geopolitical risk.
Currency Movements
| Pair | Price | 24hr Change | 7-Day Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | 0.7004 | +0.0021 (+0.30%) | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1400 | +0.0023 (+0.20%) | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3334 | +0.0013 (+0.10%) | |
| USD/JPY | 163.54 | -0.2960 (-0.18%) | |
| USD/CAD | 1.4099 | +0.0007 (+0.05%) | |
| USD/CHF | 0.8153 | -0.0024 (-0.29%) | |
| NZD/USD | 0.5801 | +0.0012 (+0.21%) |
Economic Calendar
Australia
| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 July | ||||||
| 13:05 | AU | RBA Gov Bullock Speech | ||||
| High impact * Revised value | ||||||
International
| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 July | ||||||
| 20:30 | IN | Industrial Production YoY | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | |
| 20:30 | IN | Manufacturing Production YoY | 5.5% | 5% | ||
| 22:15 | US | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 16.5K | |||
| 22:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | $-105.9B | $-101.3B | $-99.0B | |
| 22:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv | 0.3% | 0.3% | ||
| 22:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 29 July | ||||||
| 00:00 | US | CB Consumer ConfidenceJUL | 91.2 | 92.2 | 92 | |
| 06:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 2.603M | -1.5M | ||
| High impact * Revised value | ||||||
Yesterday's Key Stories
Economic Releases
- US durable goods orders rose 0.3% in June, well below the 2.5% consensus, though the ex-transport measure was 0.6% (consensus 0.8%). The miss suggests manufacturing demand is softening.
- The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index surprised to the upside at 1.3 (forecast -1), indicating a slight expansion in Texas factory activity.
- Germany's Ifo Business Climate improved to 86.6 (consensus 86), a modest positive for European sentiment.
- UK CBI Distributive Trades improved to -26 from -54, better than the -45 forecast, but still negative.
Gold & Precious Metals
- Meeka Metals reported high-grade gold intercepts 200m below the Turnberry underground reserve at its Murchison project, with 52.3m at 3 g/t gold, suggesting potential to expand the resource.
- Newmont's Tanami mine in the NT will supply all the gold for the 2026 Melbourne Cup trophy, highlighting the mine's annual economic contribution of $929 million.
- Gina Rinehart's Hancock Prospecting took a 5.6% stake in G50 Corp as part of a $20 million capital raising, backing the precious metals explorer's Arizona and Nevada projects.
- Saturn Metals launched a $100 million capital raising to advance its gold exploration.
- Larvotto Resources crushed first ore at the Hillgrove antimony-gold mine in NSW, targeting ~4,900 tonnes of antimony and 40,000 ounces of gold annually.
Base Metals & Bulk Commodities
- Evolution Mining will acquire Carnaby Resources for $213 million, adding the Greater Duchess copper project in Queensland and boosting copper production by ~10,000 tonnes per annum using spare mill capacity at Ernest Henry.
- Boab Metals completed 60% of its phase nine drilling at the Sorby Hills silver-lead-zinc project in WA, with early results suggesting potential to extend mine life beyond the current FEED study.
- Sundance Resources won an $880 million ICC arbitration award against Cameroon for wrongfully stripping the miner of its Mbalam iron ore project, though collection remains uncertain.
- A fully laden coal train ran unmanned for several kilometres in the Hunter Valley, reaching speeds over 60 km/h, in what experts called a 'worst-case scenario' for rail safety.
Energy & Policy
- The PM announced a $4 million feasibility study for a new oil refinery in WA, proposed by Perdaman, as part of a $15 billion package to address fuel security amid Middle East tensions.
- Lakes Blue Energy launched an $8 million capital raising to fund its Wombat Gas Field project in Victoria, aiming to capitalise on the predicted East Coast gas shortfall.
- Liberal Senator Andrew McLachlan endorsed extending carbon pricing to the electricity sector, arguing it would be more efficient than the current patchwork of policies, though the Coalition opposes it.
- The US and Iran paused strikes, with Oman brokering talks over the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices sharply lower on reduced supply disruption risk.
Today's Useless Fact
Scotland has more redheads than any other part of the world.