Daily Overview: 29 October 2026

All eyes are on the RBA after yesterday's hotter-than-expected September CPI print, which showed headline inflation at 4.3% year-on-year against a 4.2% consensus and trimmed mean at 3.6% — both above the RBA's August forecasts. Markets now price an 87% chance of a hike to 4.85% at next Tuesday's Melbourne Cup Day meeting, with some analysts flagging the risk of back-to-back increases in November and December that could take the cash rate above 5%. Watch for further RBA commentary and any softening in the labour market data ahead of the October employment report on November 19, which Barrenjoey's Andrew Lilley has identified as the key variable determining whether the tightening cycle extends.

Overnight, the US delivers a heavy data slate at 10:30pm AEDT: advance Q3 GDP (consensus 3.2% QoQ, down from 2.2% previously), Core PCE Price Index (0.3% MoM expected), and Initial Jobless Claims (199K forecast). The GDP Price Index is the one to watch — consensus sits at 3.2% against a prior 6.1%, and any upside surprise would reinforce the global sticky-inflation narrative that is driving the RBA's hawkish pivot. The ECB also decides rates at 11:15pm AEDT, with the deposit facility expected to hold at 2.5% and the main rate at 2.65%; the press conference at 11:45pm will be parsed for any signal on the eurozone growth outlook, which matters for base metals demand.

Iron ore remains the story of the week for resources professionals, having hit a two-year low of US$89.25/t — down 24% since May — on deepening concerns about China's property sector. Goldman Sachs has downgraded its China property estimates (land sales revenue down 28% YoY, new home starts down 25%, property investment down 21%), and the CSI 300 has re-entered a bear market. Watch for any Chinese policy response and further analyst downgrades to Australian iron ore price forecasts, which flow directly into Treasury revenue projections. Meanwhile, the Fortescue-China pricing standoff continues to simmer, with Andrew Forrest telling shareholders he won't cave to Beijing's centralised buying agency.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• Australian CPI came in hot across the board: headline inflation rose to 4.3% YoY (consensus 4.2%, prior 4.0%) and 0.8% MoM (consensus 0.7%), while the RBA's preferred trimmed mean measure held at 3.6% YoY — above the RBA's August forecast. The result triggered a sharp repricing of rate expectations, with markets now pricing an 87% chance of a November hike.
• US goods trade deficit widened to US$134.9 billion in the advance estimate, well above the US$130 billion consensus and the prior US$132.07 billion, suggesting net exports will be a drag on Q3 GDP.
• Bank of Canada held rates at 2.5% as expected, while the Fed held at 4.0% — both in line with consensus, offering no fresh directional signal for commodity markets.
• EIA crude stocks fell 1.892 million barrels, less than the prior week's 3.061 million draw, while gasoline stocks built 3.87 million barrels against expectations of a 0.9 million draw — a bearish signal for refined product cracks.

Iron Ore & Steel

• Iron ore hit a two-year low of US$89.25/t, down 24% since May, as analysts read the fall as a verdict on China's struggling domestic economy. Goldman Sachs downgraded its China property estimates, with land sales revenue down 28% YoY, new home starts down 25% and property investment down 21%, while the CSI 300 re-entered a bear market.
• Andrew Forrest urged Fortescue shareholders to keep faith in resolving tense iron ore price negotiations with China, insisting he would not cave to demands from Beijing's centralised buying agency, which has imposed sanctions on some Fortescue products. Shareholders pressed the board on China's tactics and whether the 30% share price fall over the past year was overdone.

Lithium & Battery Minerals

• PLS delivered record spodumene concentrate production of 267,600 tonnes at Pilgangoora for the September quarter, up 25% on the Ngungaju plant restart, with unit operating costs down 12% to $539/t. Revenue fell 24% to $563 million as the average realised selling price dropped 14% to US$1,809/t, and the company approved a $1.9 billion FID for the P2000 expansion targeting ~2Mt annual capacity.
• PLS secured a 20-year power purchase agreement with Fortescue for at least 325 GWh per annum, expected to cut unit operating costs by $15–20/t versus the P2000 expansion's 10-year average. PLS will invest about $150 million in transmission infrastructure, with electricity supply targeted to commence in 2029 and power-related emissions intensity to fall up to 80% by 2030.

Rare Earths & Critical Minerals

• The federal government conditionally committed $180 million to Astron Corporation's Donald rare earths and mineral sands project in western Victoria, with $110 million from the National Reconstruction Fund and $70 million from Export Finance Australia. The project, a JV with US uranium giant Energy Fuels, would be the fourth-largest rare earths mine outside China and second-largest in Australia, with mining set to start in 2028.
• Iluka Resources has completed 65% of construction at its $1.8 billion Eneabba rare earths refinery in WA, with capex at $1.237 billion against a $1.7–1.8 billion estimate. The company produced dysprosium and terbium metal to specification and purchased metallisation equipment to support potential commercial-scale production of 200 tonnes per annum.
• Global Advanced Metals secured a US$41.4 million loan from Export Finance Australia for tantalum production capabilities, as part of more than $6 billion in support announced for Australian critical minerals projects since the US–Australia framework was signed in October 2025.

Copper, Gold & Coal

• Sandfire Resources reported $480 million in September quarter sales revenue and plans a 130km drilling campaign at its Kalkaroo copper-gold project in South Australia, with a pre-feasibility study targeted for FY28. The company produced 38,900 tonnes of copper equivalent, generated $272 million in underlying EBITDA, paid its first fully franked dividend in four years ($117 million) and ended September with $342 million in net cash.
• Genesis Minerals is investing $30 million in Brightstar Resources as part of an $82 million capital raising to accelerate exploration at the Sandstone gold project, lifting its interest from 0.8% to 5.4%. Brightstar's Two Mile Hill–Shillington resource has grown to 1.45 million ounces, with the broader Sandstone project at 3.6 million ounces and a pre-feasibility study targeted for the December quarter.
• Stanmore Resources reported record coal production at South Walker Creek, with 2.8Mt ROM and 1.9Mt saleable coal in the September quarter. The company achieved an average realised coal sales price of US$163/t, up 6% from the June quarter, reduced net debt by US$53 million to US$19 million and is progressing its US$105 million acquisition of the Moranbah South tenements from Exxaro.