Daily Overview: 5 November 2026

The rates story is no longer just an Australian one. The Bank of England decides at 22:00 and is expected to lift Bank Rate to 4.0 per cent from 3.75 per cent — a split MPC vote (consensus 7/9 for a hike versus 3/9 last time) would confirm a second G10 central bank tightening into a slowing economy this week. Add Fed speeches from Hammack (23:50) and Barkin (00:10) plus Lagarde at 01:00, and the risk is a fresh leg higher in front-end yields that squeezes rate-sensitive equities and REITs further. Watch the language on energy pass-through: with euro area headline inflation back at 4 per cent, central banks are being forced to look through a supply shock they cannot control.

Domestically, the ABS trade balance at 10:30 is the number that matters — A$1.5 billion forecast against a near-flat A$0.495 billion prior. A rebound of that size would still be a shadow of the surpluses of the past two years and would underline that the terms-of-trade cushion has gone; the detail on iron ore and LNG volumes is worth more than the headline. German factory orders at 17:00 (forecast +3.6 per cent after a brutal -10.6 per cent) and the UK construction PMI at 19:30 (46.1 previously, 45.5 forecast) round out a soft European picture, while US jobless claims at 23:30 (195K) and non-farm productivity (2.7 per cent forecast versus 1.4 per cent prior) will be read for any sign the US labour market is finally cracking.

The corporate news flow is where the real damage is being done. David Jones is expected to have administrators appointed as early as this morning after Scentre and the landlord group walked away — watch the discretionary retail complex, mall REITs and suppliers, not just the department store itself. Canva's 1,271-job restructure will keep the local tech and venture capital conversation ugly for weeks. And on the political side, a Democratic sweep of Congress introduces genuine policy risk to the data centre build-out that has underpinned the Goodman and NextDC stories — Democratic governors won in two major data centre states on the back of local opposition, which is a direct threat to the $141 billion pipeline Deloitte has counted.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• China's RatingDog services PMI missed at 50.8 against 51.5 consensus and 51.6 previously — a second-tier indicator, but it reinforces the picture of softening Chinese domestic demand heading into year-end.
• Euro area flash inflation printed 4.0 per cent year-on-year, in line with consensus but up from 3.8 per cent, with the monthly reading at 0.4 per cent versus 0.3 per cent forecast; core held at 2.5 per cent, so the upside is energy, not demand.
• US ADP employment beat at 86K versus 69K expected, while ISM services eased only slightly to 54.5 (54.8 consensus) — the US economy is not rolling over, which keeps the Fed honest.
• The US trade deficit narrowed to US$105 billion against a US$108 billion consensus, and Canada swung to a C$5.35 billion surplus versus C$4.1 billion expected — both consistent with strong energy and goods flows.
• EIA data showed a crude draw of 0.865 million barrels against expectations of a 0.9 million build, with gasoline also drawing — a bullish inventory signal that oil prices nonetheless ignored.

Macro & Policy

• The RBA lifted the cash rate a quarter point to 4.85 per cent, its fifth hike this year, on a 6-3 board split; the big four and Macquarie will pass on the full 0.25 points from November 13, adding about $79 a month to a $500,000 loan. Thirty of 32 economists polled expect the next move to be down, but not until late next year, with the RBA not forecasting core inflation back at 2.5 per cent until 2028.
• Democrats appear to have swept both houses of Congress, with James Talarico flipping Texas — BCA Research's Matt Gertken argues gridlock is market-friendly and non-inflationary into 2027, but Democratic gains in data centre states and the prospect of AI regulation are live risks to the build-out. Trump separately told the FT there is no immediate plan to strike Iran, cooling the geopolitical premium.
• The High Court ruled Uber owes at least $81.5 million in NSW payroll tax on 2015–2020 fares, almost ten times its 2025 net Australian profit, with similar laws in every state and territory except WA opening the door to assessments across the gig economy.
• ASX 200 FY27 consensus earnings growth has been cut to under 7 per cent from nearly 13 per cent four months ago — the fastest downgrade pace since COVID — while the Business Council of Australia claims almost 70 per cent of the inflation surge is homegrown and wants real spending growth capped at 2 per cent.
• Governance questions are piling up in gas: ACIL Allen helped write the Future Gas Strategy while doing undisclosed paid work for gas lobby groups, and a former NT ministerial adviser held 62,500 Beetaloo Energy shares while the Territory signed an appraisal agreement with the company.

Mining, Energy & Critical Minerals

• Fortescue completed Australia's first green ammonia bunkering, transferring certified fuel to the 300-metre ammonia-powered bulker Mineral Europa at Port Hedland over two hours before it loaded iron ore for China — a genuine first, and a marker for the Pilbara Clean Fuel Bunkering Hub.
• BHP is working with 13 steelmakers representing a quarter of global production on decarbonisation, with US$24 billion committed across the industry in the year to April 2026, but conceded the pace is becoming "more measured" as capital costs, hydrogen availability and weak green steel demand bite. NeoSmelt at Kwinana targets 2029 commissioning and the POSCO HyREX demonstration is set for 2028.
• Ramelius Resources kicked off the stage 3 cutback at Eridanus (30Mt at 1.6 g/t for 1.5Moz) as part of a push beyond 600,000 ounces annually by FY30, with Primero awarded a new 3Mtpa Mt Magnet circuit that will take group capacity to about 5Mtpa and reserves up 79 per cent to 4.3Moz.
• Kingfisher Mining began a 3,500m RC and diamond program at Copper Blow near Broken Hill, targeting extensions to intercepts including 26m at 2.57 per cent copper and 0.75 g/t gold ahead of a maiden resource.
• A scandium mine approval pushed critical minerals investment above $3 billion, while Onterris argued tailings and mine waste must be designed as an integrated system — filtered and thickened tailings, paste and backfill — with water management embedded from mine planning through closure.
• Firmus won council approval for a 26MW AI research facility at the former Wesley Vale pulp mill without advertising or a vote, and its planned ASX listing has been abandoned after investor interest cooled; separately, Tasmanian salmon producers are seeking an emergency florfenicol permit that would close wild fisheries for up to six weeks, drawing threats of protest from rock lobster fishers ahead of an APVMA decision this month.

Corporate & Markets

• David Jones is set to enter voluntary administration after talks with landlords collapsed, with Scentre confirming no rent paid since September 30 and rejecting an offer that would have carried the chain through Christmas; McGrathNicol is expected to be appointed administrator and Hilco-backed FTI Consulting as receiver, against a $230 million stock-secured facility and $45 million in Westfield bank guarantees.
• Canva will cut 1,271 roles, about 22 per cent of its global workforce, with at least six months' salary, equity cliff relief and US$10,000 grants for departing staff, as annualised revenue stalled near US$3.69 billion and Blackbird and Airtree marked the valuation down from US$42 billion to US$35 billion.
• Goodman Group and Digital Realty are raiding NextDC's register at $9.50 a share for up to 9.9 per cent, capitalising on a near-60 per cent share price collapse driven by delays at the M3 Melbourne site — a hostile-looking move on Australia's largest independent data centre operator.
• Goodman reaffirmed 9 per cent earnings growth and a 30¢ distribution, with its power bank at 6.6GW and $19.7 billion of work in progress 79 per cent weighted to data centres, but analysts flagged no new leasing beyond the Google-let Tokyo Tsukuba site and flat secured power; the stock is down almost 18 per cent in 12 months.
• The retail reckoning is broadening: Nick Scali's written orders fell 15 per cent in the September quarter, JB Hi-Fi's first-quarter sales missed, and Cue, BlackMilk and Betts have all entered voluntary administration, with Accent Group and Kathmandu-Rip Curl owner KMD in acquirers' sights.
• Qantas will sell 44 ageing aircraft to AerFin while keeping its 2002-vintage 737s flying into the mid-2030s, with up to 24 new aircraft due this financial year; Citi cut FY27 EBIT forecasts 9 per cent ahead of Friday's AGM update. China Southern will also suspend its Darwin–Guangzhou service from December 3, leaving the NT without a direct China link.