Daily Overview: 14 September 2026

All eyes are on the RBA this morning with a speech from Hunter at 12:30 AEST. With markets now pricing a near-certain hike at next week's board meeting and the three-year yield at 5.05%, any hawkish lean will cement expectations and put further pressure on the housing market and rate-sensitive equities. The bond market is the story — the global repricing of real yields is not done, and Australia is importing the shock without hosting the AI boom that caused it.

Oil remains the other dominant force. Brent has pulled back to $US104.53 after the weekend's surge past $US107, but with Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline closed and the Houthis seizing Mayun Island, the risk premium is not leaving in a hurry. Watch for any further escalation headlines through the Asian session — every drone strike and pipeline closure feeds directly into fuel prices, inflation expectations, and the case for higher rates globally.

Later tonight, ECB President Lagarde speaks at 01:15 AEST. With the Fed, BoE, and BoJ all meeting this week, her tone on the inflation pass-through from energy will set the stage for a pivotal week. Canadian inflation data at 22:30 is secondary, but the Indian CPI print at 20:30 (forecast 4.7% vs 4.45% previous) is worth a glance for emerging market demand signals.

Australia

International

Oil & Energy

• Oil surged 6% to top $US107 a barrel as the US and Iran exchanged attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, before easing to $US104.53 on Friday. Saudi Arabia temporarily closed its East-West pipeline after drone attacks launched from Iraq, while Houthi rebels captured the strategic island of Mayun in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — their biggest territorial gain in the strait in years.
• Saudi production fell 23% in August to 6.2 million barrels a day, and the US Energy Information Administration slashed its non-OPEC production growth forecast to 400,000 barrels a day from 1.1 million. RBC Capital Markets warns Brent could reach $US118 this year and $US130 next year if the conflict escalates.
• Australian grain farmers are facing diesel prices double what they were a year ago just before harvest, with trucking operators warning of supply constraints and consumer price impacts.
• Port of Newcastle, the world's largest coal export port, has mandated Azure Capital to review its capital structure to fund a 40-year diversification master plan, as Macquarie's The Infrastructure Fund reviews its 50% stake with Goldman Sachs.

Macro & Policy

• US core CPI rose 0.3% in August, above the 0.2% expected, cementing expectations for a Fed rate hike this week — futures now price 86.5% odds. Energy prices rose 2.1%, and real average hourly earnings fell 0.3% year-on-year.
• The global bond sell-off has added an estimated $10 billion to Australian federal and state government interest bills over four years, with the three-year yield hitting 5.05% and the 10-year 5.40%. S&P downgraded Queensland's credit rating from AA+ to AA, citing weak budget performance and infrastructure spending.
• Markets now price a likely RBA rate hike by November, with the housing market already in sharp correction — auction clearance rates hit a 19-week high of 58.5% but volumes remain 30% lower than a year ago, and HSBC forecasts a 16% peak-to-trough fall.
• China's ICBC reported a 70% surge in cross-border yuan settlement for bulk commodities, with BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue accepting yuan for a small share of sales — though the yuan's share remains too low to challenge the US dollar's dominance in commodity pricing.

Gold & Miners

• Gorilla Gold Mines reported high-grade intersections at its Lakeview deposit in WA, including 7m at 12.6 g/t gold from 392.7m, with the deposit remaining open at depth. Metallurgical test work returned 94.6% average gold recovery, and the company received final permits for underground activities at Sovereign.
• Alkane Resources lifted ore reserves at Costerfield (gold +13.3% to 170,000oz, antimony +40.2% to 15,000t) and Tomingley (gold +3.2% to 641,000oz), supporting a six-year mine life at Costerfield.
• Maritana Minerals increased its Burbanks gold resource by 290,000oz to 755,000oz, taking total company resources above 2 million ounces, with a further update expected in Q1 2027.
• Black Cat Syndicate reported extensional drilling results at Trojan in WA, including 3m at 6.88 g/t gold beyond the current resource boundary, and appointed Chris Stone as acting managing director.
• WorkSafe WA is investigating a fire that destroyed the cab of an $18 million Komatsu PC8000 shovel at Northern Star's Kalgoorlie Super Pit, with no injuries and no material disruption to operations.
• BHP faces a Federal Court class action from the Mining and Energy Union over public holiday rosters at its Operations Services subsidiary, potentially covering 7,000 workers. The action follows a precedent ruling that employers must ask workers if they wish to work public holidays.