Daily Overview: 27 August 2026

Today's focus shifts to the US labour market with Initial Jobless Claims (10:30pm AEST) forecast to tick up to 210K from 206K — a modest deterioration that could reinforce the narrative of a cooling US economy and support gold. The advanced Goods Trade Balance (10:30pm AEST) is expected to widen to -$100B from -$101.4B, while the ECB's Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (9:30pm AEST) will be scoured for hints on the pace of easing. None of these are likely to move the needle for the AUD as much as yesterday's hot inflation print, which has traders pricing a genuine chance of an RBA hike as soon as next month.

The RBA Bulletin (11:30am AEST) will be scrutinised for any commentary on the inflation outlook following yesterday's upside surprise. With headline CPI at 3.5% and trimmed mean stuck at 3.6%, the central bank's language will be critical — Deutsche Bank is already calling for a September hike to 4.6%. Domestically, the fallout from the Bathla collapse continues to reverberate through the private credit sector, and any further developments there will be closely watched given the $3.5 billion in debts and 26,000 homes in limbo.

Commodity markets will be watching the escalating Canada-US trade war, with Canada's retaliatory tariffs on $US20 billion of US goods taking effect from September 8. Ontario's threat to cut critical minerals exports adds a supply-risk premium to the battery metals complex. Meanwhile, the Victorian offshore wind auction officially opened yesterday — expect continued commentary on that front as the state pushes its 2GW target.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• Australian July inflation came in hot: headline CPI rose 3.5% YoY (vs 3.3% consensus) and trimmed mean held at 3.6% (vs 3.5% expected), with the monthly trimmed mean jumping to 0.5% — putting an RBA rate hike firmly back on the table for September.
• US GDP growth was confirmed at 1.5% QoQ annualised (2nd estimate), with the GDP price index revised up sharply to 6.4% from 3.6% — a stagflationary signal that complicates the Fed's easing path.
• US core PCE inflation rose 0.2% MoM as expected, while durable goods orders beat at 1.1% (vs 0.5% consensus), suggesting US manufacturing resilience despite the broader slowdown.
• US corporate profits surged 8.2% QoQ preliminary — a massive jump from 0.5% previously — which could have implications for equity valuations and tax receipts.

Macro & Policy

• Australia's inflation surprise dominated markets: the AUD and bond yields rose while the ASX sold off, with Deutsche Bank predicting a September hike to 4.6% and ANZ/Goldman Sachs forecasting November — mortgage holders face renewed uncertainty.
• Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on ~$US20 billion of US goods (15-50% on 700+ products) effective September 8, with Ontario threatening to cut critical minerals exports — escalating the trade war and raising supply-chain risks for battery metals.
• The Future Fund's Raphael Arndt is departing after a stellar year — the fund returned 14.8% ($37.4 billion) driven by commodities, underweight China, and hedge funds — but he warned AI will be a major investment theme.
• ASIC chair Sarah Court flagged concerns about the private credit sector's lack of visibility, with the Bathla collapse ($3.5 billion debts) highlighting growing pain in residential development — a rate hike would intensify the stress.
• The Coalition is prepared to walk away from the EU-Australia free trade deal over climate policy concerns, leaving the Greens to decide its fate — a potential headwind for Australian agricultural and resource exporters.

Iron Ore & Base Metals

• Lynas Rare Earths posted a 27-fold profit surge to $222.4 million on record NdPr prices, with the US government's $110/kg benchmark price undermining China's pricing power — though shares fell 6.4% on higher fixed costs and a CEO search.
• Metso will supply key processing equipment for Develop Global's Yitirrti copper-zinc-silver project in WA, including crushers, flotation cells, and thickeners for the 1.5Mtpa concentrator.
• The WA government will appeal the $150.3 million native title compensation ruling against Fortescue to the Yindjibarndi people, with the group also appealing the amount — a case with implications for Pilbara iron ore operations.
• Horizon Gold reported an 800m southern extension to gold mineralisation at its Gum Creek project, with notable hits including 6m at 5.57 g/t gold, ahead of a resource update in 2026.

Energy & Renewables

• Victoria opened its long-delayed offshore wind auction, inviting bids for 2GW to power 1.5 million homes, with contracts expected by 2028 — though cost concerns remain with CSIRO estimates around $200/MWh.
• Prime Minister Albanese retreated on Energy Minister Bowen's push to force Queensland and the NT to impose renewable mandates on data centres, yielding to state premiers after national cabinet.
• Scott Morrison warned Labor's proposed gas reservation scheme threatens the Japan alliance, with Japanese investors and LNG buyers flagging underinvestment risks — Woodside noted major investments depend on the regulatory framework.
• Worley's profit fell 36% to $238 million on Middle East conflict impacts and a stronger AUD, with the company switching to US dollar reporting from July 2027 and securing three data centre power system contracts.