Daily Overview: 11 August 2026

The Day Ahead

All eyes are on the RBA at 14:30 AEST. The consensus and forecast both point to a hold at 4.35%, but yesterday's news flow — Westpac's 20% plunge in mortgage applications, falling house prices in Sydney and Melbourne, and economists publicly urging Governor Bullock to keep the door open to hikes — sets up a genuinely tense decision. The market is pricing roughly a coin flip for a hike by year-end, and the accompanying press conference at 15:30 will be the real event. Bullock's tone will move the AUD, which is already at a two-month high, and by extension the commodity complex.

Before the RBA, we get NAB Business Confidence at 11:30 AEST. The forecast of -6 suggests sentiment is deteriorating further from an already-negative -5 reading — a soft number would reinforce the case for patience, while any surprise upside would strengthen the hawks. Later tonight, US Existing Home Sales (consensus 4.04M vs 4.09M previous) and the API Crude Oil Stock Change will provide the first read on US demand momentum. The housing data matters for base metals sentiment; the crude build of 2.69M barrels last week is worth watching for a second consecutive increase.

The big theme from yesterday that will develop today: the banking sector's mortgage shock. Westpac's update spooked the market, and with the RBA decision looming, the tension between housing weakness and persistent inflation is the central macro battle. Expect more commentary from economists and possibly the banks themselves as they digest the outcome.

Currency Movements

Economic Calendar

Australia

International

Yesterday's Key Stories

Macro & Policy

• Westpac's June quarter update revealed mortgage applications fell 20% since the federal budget, with housing credit growth forecast to slow from 6.8% to 4.7% this year; the stock fell 5% and dragged the broader banking sector down with it, as analysts declared the mortgage boom over.
• Economists are publicly urging RBA Governor Michele Bullock to keep rate hikes on the table despite market expectations of a hold, citing persistent inflation, resilient spending, and a higher neutral rate; markets price a 50% chance of a hike to 4.6% by year-end.
• Australia's most exclusive postcodes are leading a housing downturn, with Point Piper and Toorak median values down up to 19.4% from peaks; economists say the correction reduces pressure on the RBA to hike, with the cash rate likely held at 4.35%.
• The federal government's new 30% minimum tax on discretionary trusts is forcing business restructures, but state treasurers — particularly Queensland — are refusing to waive stamp duty, creating a federal-state wrangle that business groups say is adding unnecessary costs.
• The Productivity Commission's Closing the Gap report was criticised for declaring preschool enrolment targets met despite known data limitations, with the reported 101.7% attributed to changes in identification rather than genuine improvement.

Mining & Critical Minerals

• The US Department of War has committed $560 million to Sunrise Energy Metals' Syerston scandium project in NSW — expected to be the world's first primary scandium mine — securing a right of first offer on production and underscoring Washington's push to lock in critical minerals supply from allied nations.
• The Queensland Government will invest $15 million from its Critical Minerals Fund into Austral Resources' Rocklands copper plant near Cloncurry, boosting processing capacity by 50% to 4.5 million tonnes per year.
• Macquarie Asset Management has brought in Goldman Sachs to sell its half stake in the Port of Newcastle, potentially worth over $1.5 billion; the world's largest coal export terminal is diversifying into renewables and a container terminal, though coal still accounts for 93% of trade.
• Fortescue has engaged MinterEllison to investigate sexual harassment and bullying allegations against a senior executive, following a May complaint; the company already faces a Federal Court lawsuit from women at its WA camps alleging bullying and sexist behaviour.
• WIA Gold is raising approximately $100 million via an institutional placement after a definitive feasibility study on its Kokoseb project, upgrading the mineral resource to 3.78 million ounces and securing $US360 million in senior debt.
• Kaiser Reef has restarted underground development at its Maldon gold project in Victoria — the first development activity in almost eight years — targeting the Northern Drill Drive beneath the Union Hill mine.
• Mining communities in regional WA fear the 2026 Census will miss the FIFO "ghost population," with Kalgoorlie-Boulder's mayor estimating up to 10,000 workers in the area; the ABS says FIFO workers should use their "usual residence" where they spend more than six months.
• Glencore will contribute $2 million toward a $4.7 million memorial honouring 150 miners who lost their lives at Mount Isa Mines, with completion due by late-2027.
• Medallion Metals has launched a helicopter-borne electromagnetic survey across its Ravensthorpe gold project in WA, covering 120 square kilometres along the Mt Cattlin–Kundip–Trilogy corridor, with the WA government contributing $135,000 via the Exploration Incentive Scheme.
• Alice Queen has mobilised a drill rig to its Horn Island gold project in far north Queensland, targeting structural extensions and high-grade continuity at the 569,000-ounce JORC resource.

Today's Useless Fact

Dueling is legal in Paraguay as long as both parties are registered blood donors.